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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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I think the short answer is Feb. 6. Didn't coastal and southern areas change over? Beside that, I can't recall another recent good storm where DC and points east changed over to rain while Carroll, Frederick, Hagerstown, and the Valley got pummeled with heavy snow.. . Maybe in 08 or 09?

I have lived in Carroll County for 5 years now, and I can tell you that it hasn't happened while I have been here. I know from looking back at the records and memory that it used to happen almost once or twice a winter (where DC got some snow with mixing problems while places towards the blue ridge and up here got 6-10". It has been a long time. I know there were a bunch of instances like that in the early 2000's that come to mind but none since then. I have still done well but mostly because I have gotten 2-3" more for every event then the cities due mostly to no urban heat island and such, but there haven't been any events where I got more then 4" and the cities were mostly rain since I have been here.

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I have lived in Carroll County for 5 years now, and I can tell you that it hasn't happened while I have been here. I know from looking back at the records and memory that it used to happen almost once or twice a winter (where DC got some snow with mixing problems while places towards the blue ridge and up here got 6-10". It has been a long time. I know there were a bunch of instances like that in the early 2000's that come to mind but none since then. I have still done well but mostly because I have gotten 2-3" more for every event then the cities due mostly to no urban heat island and such, but there haven't been any events where I got more then 4" and the cities were mostly rain since I have been here.

I think 2007 had several interior events, especially March 2007 which looks like you did well.

20070315-20070318-2.54.jpg

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NE of Baltimore too. Some are overplaying that aspect. I think you will need to be in PHL north to make out well. I suspect I will do barely better than DC and be watching heavy snow bands rotate in to my north,

The "pivot point" won't be until well northeast of PHL. PHL will do better because the band of snow will be developing and strengthening as it moves northeast so they will get longer duration and heavier but nothing is going to start rotating around until the H7 and H5 circulations catch up and that is not until near NYC. Until then the back edge is going to race SW to NE.

Best guess

IAD 2"

DCA 2.5"

BWI 3.5"

Phin 4"

Our only hope for more is one last adjustment south of the H5/H7 track. They did adjust south some from yesterday and one more 50 mile nudge would do us a lot of good but its unlikely.

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I think 2007 had several interior events, especially March 2007 which looks like you did well.

That was the 4" event I was thinking off...I got 4" here and Baltimore was all rain. That was the closest. There was another storm that year where I got 5" here and Baltimore got 2 but we both mixed a lot. A lot of instances like that while I have been here, but none where DC got like 1" and mixed and Carroll County got 8". That used to happen a lot but not so much anymore. Same reason State College PA and Harrisburg PA are in a long term snow drought also, not too many "inside runners" anymore.

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i think randy tried earlier

We will rally. We always do. We're Mid Atlantic folk. We will ENJOY our misery. We've seen worse. As we sit here tonight and even tomorrow, hoping for the miracle that won't come, we'll still enjoy every flake falling from the sky tomorrow afternoon. It's not the jackpot, but its something. Come on gang, enjoy your .20 of QPF.

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Don't look at the 72HR accumulated precip map on the 18Z GFS ensemble mean unless you want to barf. Basically, the blue shading starts about a mile outside the LWX forecast area and there is a huge hole of almost nothing SW of DC. NYC and BOS are totally destroyed.

it's actually not bad -- at least dc to balt -- comparing backwards thru the day... fwiw -- 18z is the one it lingers on longest then it cycles from 6z.

post-1615-0-60598600-1294705986.gif

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We will rally. We always do. We're Mid Atlantic folk. We will ENJOY our misery. We've seen worse. As we sit here tonight and even tomorrow, hoping for the miracle that won't come, we'll still enjoy every flake falling from the sky tomorrow afternoon. It's not the jackpot, but its something. Come on gang, enjoy your .20 of QPF.

Here here!

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If DC manages to get 2 to 3 inches, and New York only gets 8 to 10, this will be an alright storm. Not sure why, but for some reason I am really hoping the big snow sets up in Boston instead of closer down the coast to us. It will make this miss more bearable than seeing (and hearing) about another New York blizzard.

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We will rally. We always do. We're Mid Atlantic folk. We will ENJOY our misery. We've seen worse. As we sit here tonight and even tomorrow, hoping for the miracle that won't come, we'll still enjoy every flake falling from the sky tomorrow afternoon. It's not the jackpot, but its something. Come on gang, enjoy your .20 of QPF.

:clap:

:drunk:

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Isn't it time to rally the troops and hope for a 0Z miracle in two hours?

It will happen. Randy tried - And I AM rallying.

WE will see a last minute snow miracle in the south and central Mid Atl - More snow than modeled and more snow than forecast - even more than the latest LWX updates.

The radar will look worse than shit tomorrow morning but then the beginnings of the comma will blossom and N VA / DCA / MD will get memorably raked by it as it rotates NE.

Randy will get 7 inches or more.

Mark MY words...

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It will happen. Randy tried - And I AM rallying.

WE will see a last minute snow miracle in the south and central Mid Atl - More snow than modeled and more snow than forecast - even more than the latest LWX updates.

The radar will look worse than shit tomorrow morning but then the beginnings of the comma will blossom and N VA / DCA / MD will get memorably raked by it as it rotates NE.

Randy will get 7 inches or more.

Mark MY words...

Consider them marked...just like the underwear im wearing.

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Hi,

I have been in the icu under a coma for the last 6 days... So how is the snow forecast looking? Still 4-8 guys?

* Looks at recent models *

StarTrekFacePalm.gif

.......... 1 - 2 inches?!?!?!?........But DT said????? wxri....cant breath..n...o..r.e...as...on...to...LIVE....AHHHH!

Star_Trek_suicide.gif

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I have lived in Carroll County for 5 years now, and I can tell you that it hasn't happened while I have been here. I know from looking back at the records and memory that it used to happen almost once or twice a winter (where DC got some snow with mixing problems while places towards the blue ridge and up here got 6-10". It has been a long time. I know there were a bunch of instances like that in the early 2000's that come to mind but none since then. I have still done well but mostly because I have gotten 2-3" more for every event then the cities due mostly to no urban heat island and such, but there haven't been any events where I got more then 4" and the cities were mostly rain since I have been here.

I grew up in Carroll County in the 80s and 90s and it seemed like it used to happen all the time when I was a kid. We'd get off or delays and nobody to the east or southeast would get anything except for maybe the Hereford Zone of Baltimore County. It seems like Frederick County always got more than us to. As for big storms, I know we got more snow in 2003 when I was at Western Maryland (now McDaniel) College and in '96 as well.

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I grew up in Carroll County in the 80s and 90s and it seemed like it used to happen all the time when I was a kid. We'd get off or delays and nobody to the east or southeast would get anything except for maybe the Hereford Zone of Baltimore County. It seems like Frederick County always got more than us to. As for big storms, I know we got more snow in 2003 when I was at Western Maryland (now McDaniel) College and in '96 as well.

way more in 96. The blizz and the 2nd storm after it were deep out here compared to Baltimore. 2003 not so much.

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