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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Is this going to be an NYC winter? For whatever reason, certain winters seem to set their "magnets" on one spot and then keep it there all year. Last year, it was the BWI-PHL corridor. Maybe this year, it's closer to NYC.

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Looks like the cutter idea is dead for a while.

The recent globals have less ridging west which we usually want but in this case it could fuel an inland low. I think we may want flatish and hope for the best.

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Based on 7H Relative Humidity the precip would likely move into DC on the next frame.

looks like a glancing blow up here of some sort. tonight's runs so far look about as good as we could have hoped for from where we were at i think.

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looks like a glancing blow up here of some sort. tonight's runs so far look about as good as we could have hoped for from where we were at i think.

Certainly better than the 850 MB low to our nw in the ohio valley. I like our chances with something like this more than the miller B type of scenario.

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What a disaster this last 24 hours has been for the DC/BWI crew. The clipper which had least had the potential to give our area a coating-inch became even less promising. Then at 12z, the event for next week had all sorts of issues----possibly too warm/cutter. Even some mets were talking about precip type issues(rain/sleet) with this storm due to a more westerly track. Now at 0z today, virtually all of the data is pointing to a suppressed system (marginally suppressed per GGEM/very suppressed per Euro and GFS----congrats Georgia and SC). Now the Euro has not been stellar or consistent as of late, so hope is not lost. We need to pull for the old northern trend. I will say that a lot of our good snows do look suppressed several days out. However, the way this winter has gone so far, optimism is hard to muster. Just for reassurance, a little northern jog with the 6z/12z data would be nice.

MDstorm

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