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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Do what I do... glance at it from time to time until the 84hr window hits... that will at least cut down the time you spend on it :D

Side note: I have made way too many posts for one day...

I've decided to become an amateur chemist. I'm starting a chemistry board tonight.

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Doesn't matter where you live when you have this affliction. I spent 7 years working at a ski resort in CO. We would get 360 inches of snow a year and it wasn't enough. Still got pissed when we would get 6" overnight and a resort 50 miles away got 12". Still got pissed when the forecast was for 12" and we would only get 9". Still bummed me out when we had a 450" year and Alta over in Utah got almost 700".

I compare last year to January of 96 in the Rockies. We got 150" in 30 days while all other counties in CO and surround states got much less. The jackpot sensation rules and all other outcomes make you mad.

It is an affliction that you are powerless over. It is part of you and you have to deal with it.

It was such a relief to find a board like this since I thought I was one of a very few. Certainly none of my family or friends hast this disease. It was nice to know I am not alone. The only real relief, not cure, is spring and summer. Even then you are wondering what might happen in six months.

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I don't think these matter that much. It's not about what's going on down south- it's about the system in the plains/midwest. If anything to my untrained eye, it looks at least where, if maybe not even a smig north of where the models had it. I think the chance that this comes together with the SE system south enough to save is is close to nil. These western trends may even make it more painful for us, as it increases the chances of a better phase and subsequent more "western track" for our good snow starved friends in NJ and NY. May not be game over for us yet, but we're losing 21-0 in the 4th quarter with Grossman as QB.

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:lmao: Tis true

laugh.gif - Nah I'm non-violent. Although I do like to beat you over the head with the ARW in severe season.

Anyway - just now getting back online after work here...Based on what I could gather from my BB reading the forum today radar looks decent and models have kind of wavered back and forth if not a bit drier?

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Someone mentioned it in the last thread.

It seems like its been AGES since I've tracked a rain/snow line and interior regions got pounded and the coast changed over.

When was the last time a storm took that track?

I think the short answer is Feb. 6. Didn't coastal and southern areas change over? Beside that, I can't recall another recent good storm where DC and points east changed over to rain while Carroll, Frederick, Hagerstown, and the Valley got pummeled with heavy snow.. . Maybe in 08 or 09?

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