Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mt Holly just upgraded to winter storm warnings. Do you think Balt will follow suit or downgrade? Mt Holly is far enough east to get into the significant snow. Baltimore will definitely downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I suggest: 1) No more posts that show the snow hole around DC. It's simply cruel. 2) No more posts that show the entire rest of the affected area getting 5+ inches of snow. It's rubbing salt in an already gaping wound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs looks a little juicier at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow i am in the 3-6" whopee . I definitely expect to be closer to the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dale803 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i really wouldnt complain...you were the jackpot hole all last year Hideous...just as bad as 12/26. We should all move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I feel like the snow hole is bringing us all closer together. Kinda like after a hurricane hits a community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is not nearly as bad as dec 26. This was never suppose to be at max more than a 6 inch storm for us. We didnt lose a blizzard like we did on Dec 26. On Dec 25, 6z GFS gave me 12-15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS pops the surface low earlier this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if we were going to be upgraded, I think that would have happened, since mt holly has done so already and were father south. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS pops the surface low earlier this run.... Is that a low or a high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 doesnt look like the early moisture mattered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run looks kinda ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is that a low or a high? Haha Then nothing happens to it for 24 hours. Looks similar at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run looks kinda ugly you were as bad as midlo for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run looks kinda ugly Well, thats an understatement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run looks kinda ugly it does, but so did the NAM at 30 some uvv's over us at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS will always be SE and less qpf of the NAM no matter what in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it does, but so did the NAM at 30 some uvv's over us at 30 doing the same thing as the nam.. making the 500 low bigger -- vorts are in almost the same place as 12z tho.. not good 'trends' i guess http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_030m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_036m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it does, but so did the NAM at 30 some uvv's over us at 30 The weenie suicides tomorrow afternoon before the interaction are going to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is not nearly as bad as dec 26. This was never suppose to be at max more than a 6 inch storm for us. We didnt lose a blizzard like we did on Dec 26. On Dec 25, 6z GFS gave me 12-15 inches I'll never forget that wretched tease on Christmas eve/day. First I cancelled the storm before my family then brought it back and had to eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh boy, I hope that was a hiccup lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 you were as bad as midlo for this run lol 18z gfs looks great for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well I was going to not post, I'll try to explain. One problem they have is over the years they ha and NHCand spun things when their potential storms have gone stray. That doesn't engender love within the met community. I've generally made it a practice to not criticize other mets as I'm very aware of how tough forecasting can be. I make an exception for a couple of mets at accuwx since they tend to slam others and I think some of their practices concerning forecasts are against the science. Dont get me wrong, there are guys there that I respect (Joe Lundberg is a prime example, Elliot Abrams is another) However, their corporate decision to make for specific snowfall forecasts days in advance really makes mets look bad as it gives the impression that there is skill at those time ranges when verification of the models indicate otherwise. . Chaos theory says that's not possible tp make specific forecast of snow on day 4 or 5 as small changes to the initial conditions can make a huge impact on what ends up occurring. Accuwx knows about chaos and its impact on forecasts but choose to pretend it does exist and the spin things when they are wrong. They do it for hits and to be able to say they were the first to forecast the event. They know the odds of them hitting the guess (and its a wild one) is not much more than random luck as none of the models have much skill at those time ranges even at the best of times and this pattern has been less well behaved than many. Snow often focused on the mesoscale (smaller scales) that the models have little skill forecasting much in advance of a day or two. Why shouldn't we criticize them when they are really putting out stuff that is not really credible and has no scientific backing. This is my last post on the subject as it's a waste of time. Everything Wes said plus one very important point...read up on Rick Santorum and his association with Accuwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 @Ji - When I said it's as bad as 12/26... I was referring to the hole. @dale803 - You know, everyone wants to say that. And it is true that we were the jackpot last year. The thing people fail to mention is that we had years of snow drought prior to that. Additionally, I'm not really complaining... I expect that snow hole for this area. That said it doesn't make it any less hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS really dry up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS really dry up the coast. Doesn't NC get a decent storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow..didnt realize so many people didnt like me. I am very loyal to VA/MD/DC. Suprising Well, saying f u all won't win you many friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS really dry up the coast. at least NJ gets screwed too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the gfs is wrong.. either way this truly is the stupidest hobby ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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