Symblized Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is there a link to/tutorial for how I and other newbies can calculate/determine MBY QPFs for NAM/GFS/ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah i dont think there is enough change to think too much about it though timing is going to be critical as to whether you hit the low or high end of amounts thrown around so far I don't think it changes anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hate those guys http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_042l.gif KMTN and KAPG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 that's a cool pick got my fav house down the road a bit for a week in Aug already http://www.avalonpier.com/wavecam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 KMTN and KAPG? I don't have the 18z runs maybe JI can get it for you odd, they usually are there, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 KMTN and KAPG? You are getting out of hand with the IMBY requests . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just my $0.01, but the 18Z NAM has a 1016 850 forming to the east of JAX at 00Z, but THIS buoy is already recording 1013.5 and falling... Just sayin... first hallucination of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 call me a weenie, but I like what I'm seeing on radar and pressures, etc. too oh no you did'nt just pull out the weenie handbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 first posted hallucination of the day! fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DCA .31 iAd .26 KTMN and KAPG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 oh no you did'nt just pull out the weenie handbook yeah, and the pages are really stuck together for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 first hallucination of the day! Hey - mitch beat me by a minute... In all seriousness though, why is that a hallucination? I merely stated two facts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WWA here for 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS forecast as of this morning was for 1-3". Already been downgraded to "an inch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Never said that no one could criticize them, just wanted to know why. Thanks for the explanation. Well I was going to not post, I'll try to explain. One problem they have is over the years they ha and NHCand spun things when their potential storms have gone stray. That doesn't engender love within the met community. I've generally made it a practice to not criticize other mets as I'm very aware of how tough forecasting can be. I make an exception for a couple of mets at accuwx since they tend to slam others and I think some of their practices concerning forecasts are against the science. Dont get me wrong, there are guys there that I respect (Joe Lundberg is a prime example, Elliot Abrams is another) However, their corporate decision to make for specific snowfall forecasts days in advance really makes mets look bad as it gives the impression that there is skill at those time ranges when verification of the models indicate otherwise. . Chaos theory says that's not possible tp make specific forecast of snow on day 4 or 5 as small changes to the initial conditions can make a huge impact on what ends up occurring. Accuwx knows about chaos and its impact on forecasts but choose to pretend it does exist and the spin things when they are wrong. They do it for hits and to be able to say they were the first to forecast the event. They know the odds of them hitting the guess (and its a wild one) is not much more than random luck as none of the models have much skill at those time ranges even at the best of times and this pattern has been less well behaved than many. Snow often focused on the mesoscale (smaller scales) that the models have little skill forecasting much in advance of a day or two. Why shouldn't we criticize them when they are really putting out stuff that is not really credible and has no scientific backing. This is my last post on the subject as it's a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 on a positive note if it just moves 75 miles west then northern/central MD get 6-12 don't forget ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 314 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 .A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST REGION WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST AND BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE COMMONWEALTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-110415- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.110111T2100Z-110112T1200Z/ POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR- HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUDERSPORT...RENOVO...PHILIPSBURG... STATE COLLEGE...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN... MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG... MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT... LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN... BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE... LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 314 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATION... CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPE... SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS... 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING... MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS... EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST. * IMPACTS... SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. && $$ RXR/MRS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS forecast as of this morning was for 1-3". Already been downgraded to "an inch" i dont think so.. they just dont have the totals in the tomorrow night section right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS forecast as of this morning was for 1-3". Already been downgraded to "an inch" This is 'The Winter of the Dusting' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nam should be rockin' 700 maps definitely dont look as good imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i dont think so.. they just dont have the totals in the tomorrow night section right now True, but this was for the Tuesday day forecast. They even went from 100% chance to 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS forecast as of this morning was for 1-3". Already been downgraded to "an inch" They have 2-4 or 1-3 area wide. Stop being dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is 'The Winter of the Dusting' Might have to trade in the trusty Jebman shovel for a broom this year, in that case (chim-chim-ery)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 True, but this was for the Tuesday day forecast. They even went from 100% chance to 90% That's cause of the timing, don't worry.... we will still see snow in Odenton, it may not start until later in the day. The real action will be after sunset. Edit to add: they have 2-4 inches for Tuesday night. We are okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 True, but this was for the Tuesday day forecast. They even went from 100% chance to 90% slower start.. you're in between the 3 and 4 zone on the 3p update -- im in a little screw diamond in dc http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/images/latestmap.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 slower start.. you're in between the 3 and 4 zone on the 3p update -- im in a little screw diamond in dc http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/images/latestmap.pdf If almost the whole area is under 5 inches why do they just not drop the WSW and issue a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS forecasts are so passe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mostly clear with a few passing clouds - Great weather for radiating nicely tonight. Should manage upper teens overnight before the clouds start to increase tomorrow morning about 10am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 True, but this was for the Tuesday day forecast. They even went from 100% chance to 90% Probably because the timeline shifted slightly later, which would put the start time closer to the next forecast period, slightly decreasing the chance that it would start during the daytime period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i dont think so.. they just dont have the totals in the tomorrow night section right now Well, does anyone really have a handle on this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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