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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Ian, when you used the word "elevated", that to me smacked of some sort of jealously, sorry. And what is the deal with some of the posters hating on Accuwx all of the time. Just curious. I'm not affiliated with them and last week when I posted about them, I did it to just get a rise out of the haters and it worked. Why is that?

i think most of the euro talk specifically is just saying where it is.. perhaps comparing to previous runs, sometimes thre might be negativity there. jealous? meh.. it's just snow. we've heard enough of your accuwx thoughts im sure... they do have a forum you know if this one is too much for you to deal with.

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Been watching this radar presentation all morning into this midafternoon

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

I've been expecting the precip over the Carolinas and GA to just slide due east out to sea.

Well - That is not what is happening.

Precip continues to bubble up from Georgia where snow just piles up.

I think the energy transfer from the energy in the plains to the developing low on the SE Coast is already underway, and that as time goes on this afternoon and tonight, more precip will bubble up from Georgia up across the Carolinas and gradually a virga blizzard will develop over VA tonight culminating in snow by dawn over N VA and the DC metro.

I believe at this time that DC is in for 2-3 inches, BWI 4 inches, Dulles 1-2 inches, Philly 7 inches and my backyard will receive an exhilarating dusting (and I will like it). Leesburg will get fringed with 2 inches. Yoda will get 3 inches locally due to a band setting up over his town. Vortmax will get 5 inches. Stormtracker will get 7 inches due to local banding.

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Let's wait for the storm to conclude and then we can talk. And for the record, I wasn't agreeing with the forecast since I'm not a met I was just commenting that it was nice to see some forecasters with the nerve to make a forecast, more that a day or two out.

How's that "Heavy Snow" from DC-BOS forecast from 4 days looking?

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Yeah, they wont change that until later tonight..

When you say that, are you inferring they will change it to an Advisory or a Warning? Because right now, there is the potential for 5 or more inches, right? I mean, we all would not be here right now if the potential doesn't exist, right? It may be an unlikely potential - but the potential does exist!

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When you say that, are you inferring they will change it to an Advisory or a Warning? Because right now, there is the potential for 5 or more inches, right? I mean, we all would not be here right now if the potential doesn't exist, right? It may be an unlikely potential - but the potential does exist!

There is potential but IMHO which means nothing it is highly unlikely we get a warning criteria snow here.

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Unless your take on significant/disruptive is less than 4"... wouldn't count it out, yet (though unlikely).

Don't mind him... he's just a Steelers fan secretly shaking in his boots after watching the Ravens beat the snot out of the Chiefs knowing they won by the skin of their teeth even with Ben "Therapist" Roethlisberger at the helm last time out...

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Ian, when you used the word "elevated", that to me smacked of some sort of jealously, sorry. And what is the deal with some of the posters hating on Accuwx all of the time. Just curious. I'm not affiliated with them and last week when I posted about them, I did it to just get a rise out of the haters and it worked. Why is that?

i didnt mean for the tombo comments to be taken personally. i have no issues with him, but at the base of it all he is doing is regurgitating maps. that's cool for those who enjoy it. i think there is a long history of accuwx being 'attacked' for their often more bullish than needed forecasts... they are in the business of making money as much as anything else though so i dont really fault them for wanting people to look at their site.

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Ok guys, no need to circle the wagons. Just making an observation or two. This is the "American" Weather Forums, isn't it?

Contrary to belief, we have our own opinions, no one is "circling the wagons". I'm just saying..you seem to have some issue with the opinions of the folks in this forum, and I offered a suggestion. That's all. Not sure what the board name has to do with any of this.

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There is potential but IMHO which means nothing it is highly unlikely we get a warning criteria snow here.

Don't get me wrong. I agree with you. But this 'issue' is the perfect example of why i love this Board (and the previous Board, and the Board before that, and IRC before that (#neweather FTW!)

In this place you get the real analysis and not media hype (ratings) or media under-hype (avoid panic). And for NWS, they are doing their job. The potential exists. If we get 8 " they are covered. If we get 2" they are covered because it was 'only potential'.

I refer to it as "intelligence chatter" and right now there is not too much woofing and bug eyed emonicons and certainly no bug eyed emonicons with red arrows going through the skull which can only mean 2" and nothing more. : - )

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Been watching this radar presentation all morning into this midafternoon

http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php

I've been expecting the precip over the Carolinas and GA to just slide due east out to sea.

Well - That is not what is happening.

Precip continues to bubble up from Georgia where snow just piles up.

I think the energy transfer from the energy in the plains to the developing low on the SE Coast is already underway, and that as time goes on this afternoon and tonight, more precip will bubble up from Georgia up across the Carolinas and gradually a virga blizzard will develop over VA tonight culminating in snow by dawn over N VA and the DC metro.

I believe at this time that DC is in for 2-3 inches, BWI 4 inches, Dulles 1-2 inches, Philly 7 inches and my backyard will receive an exhilarating dusting (and I will like it). Leesburg will get fringed with 2 inches. Yoda will get 3 inches locally due to a band setting up over his town. Vortmax will get 5 inches. Stormtracker will get 7 inches due to local banding.

No I agree with you its move more nne than just east, but it is not consolidated at all, very broken up. I dont know, .

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How's that "Heavy Snow" from DC-BOS forecast from 4 days looking?

:thumbsup:

I highly agree with the CWG map! 2-4 for places NE of DC, Baltimore and NE of Baltimore City.

I'd expect the watch to be dropped for the counties along the bay, with Hartford and Cecil being the exceptions. I can see upwards of 5 inches for them, more as you get closer to PA/DE.

I'll take my 2-4 and run.

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Agree, NAM should be rockin Ian, wtf happens at the surface on this run though thru 30? Really, with an H5 like that, it would be even better than 12z.

the next panel is probably the boom one.. not sure the surface differences are that important tho really everything is a bit north of what i'd like but it is what it is

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