Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hear what you are saying and if you look at my posts i am not a big worrier nor do i expect alot of snow. In fact from this storm i always thought 2-4" inches was the most likely just from reading all the discussions and taking into acount the seasonal trends. It is still fun to follow every run and see the synoptic changes and QPF differences, like i have said in the past tracking the storms is half the fun to me. If that bothers you i am sorry and what would you like me to do to change short of stopping posting totally?. I'm not telling you to stop posting... I would like you to make more productive/contributing posts and less weenie posts, though. And don't think I'm just picking on you... the stuff I have told you is reverberated to the entire weenie community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sweet. Is the "Vodka Cold" back on ice in northern Canada? -36C!!! central northwest can. nice pna ridge to alaska. low height across most of US chilly but not frigid cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 day 10 says congrats cape hat OTS heck of a storm though 12Z GFS has the next real storm on Day 9. I'm so glad the Euro and GFS are conspiring to keep us interested (and depressingly disapointed) throughout this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 -36C!!! central northwest can. nice pna ridge to alaska. low height across most of US chilly but not frigid cold Nice, I'll take that. I'm glad my ankle-high piles of shoveled snow from tomorrow might stick around for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, the HiRes Window (WRF, both ARW and especially NMM) models have a more significant high bias for moderate to high threshold amounts (anything over .5 in/24 hours) and are much less skillful than either the NAM or GFS in the short range. Here is 24 hour verification for December over east conus....red/blue are the hires wrf where green and purple are nam and gfs. Thanks, that was my perception from looking at it while I was still at HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Still waiting for the 8" the WRF had me getting Saturday. Too easy. cwg map http://voices.washin...n_timeline.html I like the CWG map. Seems very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody else thing the southern LP is a little faster than modeled? Any mets have thoughts on the current surface situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 here's the bad news folks the CFS fairly accurately depicted the temp profile of DEC and it looked like what it now shows for JAN now take a look at the FEB temp anomaly map very close to JAN I'm thinking breaking this pattern this winter will be tough if not impossible good news is we don't recessarily need the pattern to bread down as we head further into Feb. The natural progression of the pattern as wavelengths beging to shorten could mix things up in our favor. We need the southern branch to be able to lift north some or the northern branch to dig more. Either is more possible as the season advances. Given the state of the Pacific I really doubt many would like any "new" pattern that would set up if the blocking regiemn totally breaks down in the atlantic. It might be nice from a warm weather perspective but would probably not be great for snow chances. I think we have to keep the cold and hope for a slight change in the location of amplifcation of storms. Remember last winter the pattern did not really change into Feb but NYC started to get into the action as the pattern naturally progressed things further north into later Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe people like the idea of getting some info without having to put up with negativity. Seems like there are obvious jealousies going on in this forum with the other regions. And don't get me started with the hate some show towards Accuwx. ok useless might be too strong.. i know many enjoy it. i just dont get how he has been so elevated simply for reading the outputs of maps. some from that region have suggested things like a tombo only model thread which is pretty silly imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That map has about much chance as the ravens winning in Pittsburgh Saturday...not going to happen. 38%? Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not telling you to stop posting... I would like you to make more productive/contributing posts and less weenie posts, though. And don't think I'm just picking on you... the stuff I have told you is reverberated to the entire weenie community. It is hard to make productive/contributing posts when a large majority know much more than me. But i will try to and if i get out of line just spank me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe people like the idea of getting some info without having to put up with negativity. Seems like there are obvious jealousies going on in this forum with the other regions. And don't get me started with the hate some show towards Accuwx. i think most of the euro talk specifically is just saying where it is.. perhaps comparing to previous runs, sometimes thre might be negativity there. jealous? meh.. it's just snow. we've heard enough of your accuwx thoughts im sure... they do have a forum you know if this one is too much for you to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 it shows what all the other models are now showing qpf-wise sorry..this is the map i saw and it looked so famililar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sorry..this is the map i saw and it looked so famililar it does, but that was a total for 3 days and not just the storm (plus the scale on the qpf accentuates our dilemma) sorry bud, ain't our winter maybe if we just start posting "its a MA winter" it will start to become one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It is hard to make productive/contributing posts when a large majority know much more than me. But i will try to and if i get out of line just spank me . Now you're just making me feel bad lol One thing I like to ask myself before making a post (usually) is "Will others want to read this post?" That question has probably stopped me from adding about another 100+ posts to AmWx alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 it does, but that was a total for 3 days and not just the storm (plus the scale on the qpf accentuates our dilemma) sorry bud, ain't our winter maybe if we just start posting "its a MA winter" it will start to become one Mitch look at JMA on accuweather at 168...it looks like a mass of snow is heading towads us....then look at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A storm delayed is a storm denied. Snow now not expected to start until late afternoon Tuesday. Probability of snowfall lowered from 100 percent, to 90 percent for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Staying with the Winter Storm Watch for now: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 200 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 MDZ005>007-010-011-013-014-110300- /O.EXT.KLWX.WS.A.0001.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS 200 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Now you're just making me feel bad lol One thing I like to ask myself before making a post (usually) is "Will others want to read this post?" That question has probably stopped me from adding about another 100+ posts to AmWx alone. Well since i do not have the weather knowledge when we are in between runs i try to lighten up the mood with some humor around here, especially with the brutal winter we are going through so far. If i asked myself first would anyone want to read my post if it is about weather i would probably have 0 posts , but like i said i try to interject some humor. I still love you and i do not mind a stern talking to once in a while to keep me in line . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe people like the idea of getting some info without having to put up with negativity. Seems like there are obvious jealousies going on in this forum with the other regions. And don't get me started with the hate some show towards Accuwx. You could always just stay in those other regional forums if this one is off putting to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM ensembles don't have a single frame with a sup 1005 mb off the delmarva. It then strengthens in the next 12 hr to sub 1000mb up off of LI. Looks like it's just not going to phase soon enough. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=036&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well since i do not have the weather knowledge when we are in between runs i try to lighten up the mood with some humor around here, especially with the brutal winter we are going through so far. If i asked myself first would anyone want to read my post if it is about weather i would probably have 0 posts , but like i said i try to interject some humor. I still love you and i do not mind a stern talking to once in a while to keep me in line . Another relationship saved!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Staying with the Winter Storm Watch for now: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 200 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 MDZ005>007-010-011-013-014-110300- /O.EXT.KLWX.WS.A.0001.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS 200 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. Yeah, they wont change that until later tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And don't get me started with the hate some show towards Accuwx. How's that "Heavy Snow" from DC-BOS forecast from 4 days looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The fat lady is not singing but she is polishing off a bottle of brandy to warm up her vocal cords. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Another relationship saved!!!! Who are you? *ZING!* Just messin' with ya. The fat lady is not singing but she is polishing off a bottle of brandy to warm up her vocal cords. For where and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'll glady take this for 500 please Alex final call storm is striped of moisture 850 0c line comes blowing west probably ends up in louisa some where (climo) ric gets snow at sad rates but beacuse the ground is cold, and initial ratios it will stick from the get go if the ground was warmer this would be a several hours of light snow that woud never stick, and then we ges pingers with rain maybe a brief burst on the back end. things that are killing us are the surface low in the ohio valley, and the 850 low way out west, late phase job. i can't believe the hook job this storm is about to do with all the snow down south and then up north and va in the screw zone from what looked so good in the long and medium range but as every storm some one will get a surprise and others will get the shaft but hey most are above avg for the year can't complain for ric.especially since most thought this would be a torch winter ----BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The fat lady is not singing but she is polishing off a bottle of brandy to warm up her vocal cords. Not sure why you are saying this but keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like the 0.25 line touches NE DC on the 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Who are you? *ZING!* Just messin' with ya. For where and why? That was in response to Accuweather's snow map of 4 days ago..."Significant/Distruptive snow area WEST of I-95" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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