Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the perils of model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i love the strong closed vort over the northern lakes that wasnt there before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think that solution is good for DC at this point...with the NAO blocking temporarily breaking down, the storms will be more prone to try and cut north and west...so at this point, you want to see it modeled SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 amazing differences between the 00z gfs and the 18z gfs. Its really like playing slots cutter to OTS in one run LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 some of the ensembles had nothing...some had inland runner...some had midwest cutter and some had a coastal. i wouldnt worry about the 00z GFS ops. Use the ensembles for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I like that. THE NEXT Z I am the GFS customer service line. My name is Peggy, how I help you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anybody got an 8 - ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 our best snowstorms seem to occur when DT dosent woof. He needs to take a break from forecasting for a while and do some politics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think that solution is good for DC at this point...with the NAO blocking temporarily breaking down, the storms will be more prone to try and cut north and west...so at this point, you want to see it modeled SE. this is better than before moving forward if we want to hold out hope.. it's not terribly unlike the euro.. maybe it will pull some crazy due north move and still hit us later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ever see the lack of any jet stream in Canada before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 not only can we not get snow..we cant even get snow on the computer to make us happy for 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sure... two most likely options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ever see the lack of any jet stream in Canada before? One year early, looks like the Mayans had it wrong with 2012. two most likely options Haha, is this the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 at least we've (some of us) bested nyc this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anybody got an 8 - ball? 20 years ago the answer would be yes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html When does the HPC update their model discussion page for the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z GGEM had the storm to Minnesota. lets see what it does tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The SW that moves on the oregon Coast at 108HRS hits the Suth Carolina coast at 150hrs. Just an intersting note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 this is the one..i swear http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_264.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops the mother lode in to the lower 48 this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm becoming increasingly concerned over precipitation type for next week. Some vs none. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops the mother lode in to the lower 48 this run leesburg will be excited .. the -30 contour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 this thread has 500 replies for a storm that the GFS gives us 1/2 inch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops the mother lode in to the lower 48 this run Great, more cold and wind and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jan 18--DC bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 uber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 here is the warm last week of Jan that everyone is hyping. Just try to ignore the monster highs and the rebuilding -NAO http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_384.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 this is the one..i swear http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_264.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 jan 20 1042 high sitting over northern wv.. near 0 dc--been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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