yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just want 2 inches of snow... thats all. 2 damn inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Day 6 Euro seems to have an overrunning event in the MW maybe headed this way broad area of high 850 RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A couple thoughts. It would appear that the models have some kind of consensus with giving the DCA/Annapolis/Balt area somewhere between 1-5 inches. Given the current guidance, the most likely scenario at this point is a 1-3 event. The best would be 4-8. The problem I'm seeing is that it phases literally right over the area before you can get any kind of real banding going on. And then it's over. This is going to be a 6-8 hr event. After this winter so far I think there is a pretty good chance this thing phases to late and we really get screwed once again. However, it's important to keep in mind that all it would take would be a phase 40 miles further south and we would be looking at a 4-8" event. Will be interesting to watch, I just don't think it's going to happen based on the winter so far. Anyone tracking the forecast vs. verification of the Gulf low? My thoughts are that it could be coming in deeper than progged and might be able to give us the higher estimates of 2-4+. The GFS/NAM both seem about right having 1012mb at 12Z while the Gulf low continues to weaken as the energy transfers into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 PBP and run-to-run QPF is for weenies who need false hope and instant gratification/disappointment. That may very well be true, but myself and tons of other weenies do enjoy it. I see that some Mets do not like the pbp and QPF on every run but i believe a majority on this board do. I could be wrong and it will not be the first or last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-NMM actually matches up with the model consensus quite well for our area, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 you're just jealous you don;t have a job 6 months out of the year how does one live like that??? I mean, don't get me wrong, I hope he finds something as he seems decent enough, but man things must be tight for him tombo is a golf course superintendent........fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 don't know about qpf though on Day 6 in MW may just be high RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I love you dearly but i have to disagree, most of the time he is the only one willing to give pbp and he gives QPF to anyone who asks gladly. So i do not know how you consider that useless. I know the pbp and the IMBY QPF is not your cup of tea but he does it for everyone without ever bitching. ok useless might be too strong.. i know many enjoy it. i just dont get how he has been so elevated simply for reading the outputs of maps. some from that region have suggested things like a tombo only model thread which is pretty silly imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tombo is a golf course superintendent........fyi You don't have to be a Met to describe what a model is showing. What it means - now that's something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tombo is a golf course superintendent........fyi I realize that I'm not mocking him, just wondering how you can work p/t each year like I said, its got to be tight for him otoh, maybe working p.t out of the year might be a good thing for one's temperament Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sorry, but reality hasn't worked out so well for us this year if Tombo represents false hope, I'll take it if its all we got You people bring down the quality of the forum. (what do you mean, "you people?" ) That may very well be true, but myself and tons of other weenies do enjoy it. I see that some Mets do not like the pbp and QPF on every run but i believe a majority on this board do. I could be wrong and it will not be the first or last time. BRB need to take an hour to read the 1000+ posts regarding the PBP, weak analysis and weenie gripes/praises. I avoid those threads like the plague. OT POST IS OT. EDIT: The only reason why I'm in this thread is because the quality:weenie post ratio just barely makes the grade to become readable at times (so long as I'm on top of things and not away for more than 15 minutes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ARW 12z 48 hr qpf - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p48_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ok useless might be too strong.. i know many enjoy it. i just dont get how he has been so elevated simply for reading the outputs of maps. some from that region have suggested things like a tombo only model thread which is pretty silly imo. I think he has been elevated so much because he is always nice and no matter how many people ask him for IMBY QPF he always responds nicely and quickly. Hard not to like a guy like that. Like i said previously he is usually one of the only besides maybe MIDLO who always do the EURO, plus he always gets it like 2 minutes quicker than MIDLO and you know how important those 2 minutes are in dashing dreams or inflating hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I realize that I'm not mocking him, just wondering how you can work p/t each year like I said, its got to be tight for him otoh, maybe working p.t out of the year might be a good thing for one's temperament He actually works 9 months a year and not 6, sorta like a teacher . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 over 3000 posts tracking an one inch event. This is sick hobby. F u all Thanks. Of all the people on this board, I wish they would ban you permanently the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I avoid those threads like the plaque. Maybe you should brush more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think he has been elevated so much because he is always nice and no matter how many people ask him for IMBY QPF he always responds nicely and quickly. Hard not to like a guy like that. Like i said previously he is usually one of the only besides maybe MIDLO who always do the EURO, plus he always gets it like 2 minutes quicker than MIDLO and you know how important those 2 minutes are in dashing dreams or inflating hopes. I think Midlo just types slow. I think we get the same maps which are the earliest to come out I believe. I share when I can.. hard to stay up till 130 every night. I can see his value for some for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heck of a baraclinic zone off the SE coast goes from 30 degrees to 70 degrees over a fairly short distance http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe you should brush more? q... g... same effin thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Forecast should be 2 to 4 from DC up Interstate 95, to Baltimore and counties east of there to Bay. That way you are covered in case storm overperforms in DC while still being covered if Baltimore busts low. NoVa, Upper Montgomery and Frederick should be 1 to 2 inches. North of Baltimore and Eastern Shore I would go with 3 to 6 inches but caution a very high bust potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think Midlo just types slow. I think we get the same maps which are the earliest to come out I believe. I share when I can.. hard to stay up till 130 every night. I can see his value for some for sure. Tombo gets his Euro from us at MDA We get 'em out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, GFS Ensembles place the 0.25" line right over or just west of DC, oriented nearly N/S. 0.5" line is east of LWX's area. Also...if the SIM Radar's are at all correct, there's going to be some mass weenie suicides tomorrow late morning and afternoon as everyone cries that the storm's going OTS and going to miss us completely. The snow will develop nearly OVERTOP of the region, not advect in, in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BRB need to take an hour to read the 1000+ posts regarding the PBP, weak analysis and weenie gripes/praises. I avoid those threads like the plaque. OT POST IS OT. EDIT: The only reason why I'm in this thread is because the quality:weenie post ratio just barely makes the grade to become readable at times (so long as I'm on top of things and not away for more than 15 minutes). I am sorry i am a weenie not all of us choose meteoroligy as our life course . I have been around for 5 years on these boards and i try to learn as much as i can but i will never know 5% of what you and most others on these boards know, so i am sorry i annoy you so much. Think of it this way i would wager to say i know alot more about sports than you do, if there was a sports board and you were posting on it i would try to help you out and not mock you as a weenie all the time. Maybe you can try to give me the same courtesy here although im sure it must be frustrating for you at times to read these threads since you know so much more than most of us. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm liking the looks of the WRF outputs... both have MBY on the line between .5 and .75... East of the bay might do well with this one... hell thats 16" of snow using 27:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am sorry i am a weenie not all of us choose meteoroligy as our life course . I have been around for 5 years on these boards and i try to learn as much as i can but i will never know 5% of what you and most others on these boards know, so i am sorry i annoy you so much. Think of it this way i would wager to say i know alot more about sports than you do, if there was a sports board and you were posting on it i would try to help you out and not mock you as a weenie all the time. Maybe you can try to give me the same courtesy here although im sure it must be frustrating for you at times to read these threads since you knwo so much more than most of us. Rant over. Prepare for more disappointment this Saturday when the ravens lose to the STEELERS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm liking the looks of the WRF outputs... both have MBY on the line between .5 and .75... East of the bay might do well with this one... hell thats 16" of snow using 27:1 ratios... The high-res WRFs really don't do well around here. They're fun and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, GFS Ensembles place the 0.25" line right over or just west of DC, oriented nearly N/S. 0.5" line is east of LWX's area. Also...if the SIM Radar's are at all correct, there's going to be some mass weenie suicides tomorrow late morning and afternoon as everyone cries that the storm's going OTS and going to miss us completely. The snow will develop nearly OVERTOP of the region, not advect in, in this situation. Great point. LOL. It will be funny to watch tomorrow morning when there is hardly anything to our south and east. It does concern me a little though. We are very close to it being either a complete bust or over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am sorry i am a weenie not all of us choose meteoroligy as our life course . I have been around for 5 years on these boards and i try to learn as much as i can but i will never know 5% of what you and most others on these boards know, so i am sorry i annoy you so much. Think of it this way i would wager to say i know alot more about sports than you do, if there was a sports board and you were posting on it i would try to help you out and not mock you as a weenie all the time. Maybe you can try to give me the same courtesy here although im sure it must be frustrating for you at times to read these threads since you knwo so much more than most of us. Rant over. You can be a non-met and still be reasonable. How can I help you? I'm asking/telling you to stop being a weenie... only you can make yourself stop worrying about individual model runs and QPF amounts and get more concerned about the overall trends and what to realistically expect. That has nothing to do about what you know, but rather it comes from how you choose to analyze and react to the weather information at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ok useless might be too strong.. i know many enjoy it. i just dont get how he has been so elevated simply for reading the outputs of maps. some from that region have suggested things like a tombo only model thread which is pretty silly imo. I am in Tombo's region and it does seem he has a fair amount of groupies. He obviously enjoys doing the pbp and it is much appereciated by most including me so all is good. The only negative I feel is a loss of the general cohesiveness among the whole group (or something like that). I remember at one time most of the model threads were in the general forum. I know Randy early on tried to get Tombo to post directly in the general forum but I guess he gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, GFS Ensembles place the 0.25" line right over or just west of DC, oriented nearly N/S. 0.5" line is east of LWX's area. Also...if the SIM Radar's are at all correct, there's going to be some mass weenie suicides tomorrow late morning and afternoon as everyone cries that the storm's going OTS and going to miss us completely. The snow will develop nearly OVERTOP of the region, not advect in, in this situation. Could you post? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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