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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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I found this board during last winters awesomeness. Always have had an interest in weather since I was young. Over this year I have learned quite a bit about looking at the models and such. It's a pity the first year I hop on is followed by this disaster of a winter.

welcome aboard the Titanic

hope you enjoy your trip!

j/k of course

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I found this board during last winters awesomeness. Always have had an interest in weather since I was young. Over this year I have learned quite a bit about looking at the models and such. It's a pity the first year I hop on is followed by this disaster of a winter.

Don't worry the pain and suffering of a MA winter will continue for years...enjoy the ride.

GO PENS!!!

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here's the bad news folks

the CFS fairly accurately depicted the temp profile of DEC and it looked like what it now shows for JAN

now take a look at the FEB temp anomaly map

very close to JAN

I'm thinking breaking this pattern this winter will be tough if not impossible

Well...I don't mind some seasonable or moderately below normal cold, even if we can't have snow. Still want winter to feel like winter. Especially after 8 straights months of much above normal temps last year.

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Tombo is useless IMO

I love you dearly but i have to disagree, most of the time he is the only one willing to give pbp and he gives QPF to anyone who asks gladly. So i do not know how you consider that useless. I know the pbp and the IMBY QPF is not your cup of tea but he does it for everyone without ever bitching.

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Well...I don't mind some seasonable or moderately below normal cold, even if we can't have snow. Still want winter to feel like winter. Especially after 8 straights months of much above normal temps last year.

Agreed. Haven't had a cold, dry winter here in a while but they do happen.

Just hope we can start getting some more moisture toward spring.

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here's the bad news folks

the CFS fairly accurately depicted the temp profile of DEC and it looked like what it now shows for JAN

now take a look at the FEB temp anomaly map

very close to JAN

I'm thinking breaking this pattern this winter will be tough if not impossible

lolumad?

late Jan through Feb shows easing of the belows over the eastern third of the country... indicating more northern/western storm tracks, which would have put us in the money with part one of this current storm.

Also shows a relaxing in the massive AO block that would allow for more progressive systems... higher probability for changeover/rainmaker events.

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I love you dearly but i have to disagree, most of the time he is the only one willing to give pbp and he gives QPF to anyone who asks gladly. So i do not know how you consider that useless. I know the pbp and the IMBY QPF is not your cup of tea but he does it for everyone without ever bitching.

PBP and run-to-run QPF is for weenies who need false hope and instant gratification/disappointment.

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A couple thoughts. It would appear that the models have some kind of consensus with giving the DCA/Annapolis/Balt area somewhere between 1-5 inches. Given the current guidance, the most likely scenario at this point is a 1-3 event. The best would be 4-8. The problem I'm seeing is that it phases literally right over the area before you can get any kind of real banding going on. And then it's over. This is going to be a 6-8 hr event. After this winter so far I think there is a pretty good chance this thing phases to late and we really get screwed once again. However, it's important to keep in mind that all it would take would be a phase 40 miles further south and we would be looking at a 4-8" event. Will be interesting to watch, I just don't think it's going to happen based on the winter so far.

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Well...I don't mind some seasonable or moderately below normal cold, even if we can't have snow. Still want winter to feel like winter. Especially after 8 straights months of much above normal temps last year.

Ahhh. With cold should come snow. I cant stand cold and dry. If it aint gonna snow (and it wont out here) just bring on the torch.

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