H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tv news just pushed start of snow back to late afternoon uh oh good. the angle of the dark will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting EXPERIMENTAL HPC product might give weenies some hope: http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_sn.php Basically 50%+ chance of 4" of snow for Balt north and east 80%+ chance of 2" of snow for all points north of DC. 20%+ chance of 6" of snow for areas northeast of Baltimore. Cool product. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is the later start now being predicted help or hurt us with accumulation? It will help because the sun will be down which means more accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I plan on being on the high end of the lower end of the high low range of snow totals assuming that the higher ratios perform out here...if the lower ratios happen than I will probably be on the low end of the high low totals again assuming that the ratios are correct and the models have this thing progged right as far as high and low ends go Awesome. I think you might be overlooking the high probability that you could be favoring the low end model solutions that are giving you your low end probabilities that are somewhere on the low end of the high end probabilities. Also, factor in the very high end probability that the models are very likely on the low end of the probabilities that they have given us a high end probability solution and are likely to change to a different solution even as they move into their traditionally high end verification probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Awesome. I think you might be overlooking the high probability that you could be favoring the low end model solutions that are giving you your low end probabilities that are somewhere on the low end of the high end probabilities. Also, factor in the very high end probability that the models are very likely on the low end of the probabilities that they have given us a high end probability solution and are likely to change to a different solution even as they move into their traditionally high end verification probabilities. probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting EXPERIMENTAL HPC product might give weenies some hope: http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_sn.php Basically 50%+ chance of 4" of snow for Balt north and east 80%+ chance of 2" of snow for all points north of DC. 20%+ chance of 6" of snow for areas northeast of Baltimore. That is much better than when I was looking at those products last night. I think we were in 5% range for 4+. Those are some cool products to play with (even if they don't verify!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting EXPERIMENTAL HPC product might give weenies some hope: http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_sn.php Basically 50%+ chance of 4" of snow for Balt north and east 80%+ chance of 2" of snow for all points north of DC. 20%+ chance of 6" of snow for areas northeast of Baltimore. Thanks! Makes me feel a bit better about our chances. I like my 5% chance of a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Awesome. I think you might be overlooking the high probability that you could be favoring the low end model solutions that are giving you your low end probabilities that are somewhere on the low end of the high end probabilities. Also, factor in the very high end probability that the models are very likely on the low end of the probabilities that they have given us a high end probability solution and are likely to change to a different solution even as they move into their traditionally high end verification probabilities. :lmao: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We'll get 1 to 3 inches as like it. We just need to accept that and enjoy it. When its snowing tomorrow for a few hours, we'll all be fine. Agree 100%. On 12/26 we had no choice but to watch NYC. This time at least we can focus on whatever we get. I'm going to try to ignore whats going on up I-95 and just focus on here. Should make it more enjoyable. And of course, we can always hope once it starts that a 3/9/99 or 2/25/07 miracle can occur and get an overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS goin with 10 am DC and 12pm Bmore. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/onset/ According to the highly accurate Intellicast radar, snow should be moving into DC within the hour! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezyDog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 According to the highly accurate Intellicast radar, snow should be moving into DC within the hour! http://www.intellica...px?animate=true Virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Virga Sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 According to the highly accurate Intellicast radar, snow should be moving into DC within the hour! http://www.intellica...px?animate=true Guaranteed virga flizzard given 29 degrees with 13 degree dewpoints. Dry air will evaporate the virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro has explosion of precip at hr 12 all back through nc some places went from less than a tenth to 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sarcasm Resentment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro has explosion of precip at hr 12 all back through nc some places went from less than a tenth to 0.50" Surprise overperformers are the best of all snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro has explosion of precip at hr 12 all back through nc some places went from less than a tenth to 0.50" heights are a tick higher at HAT vs. 0Z as I kept the MOS readings no precip ending last run vs. .07 this run for 6 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro has explosion of precip at hr 12 all back through nc some places went from less than a tenth to 0.50" im going ot assume this means nothing for DC because you are the king of leading us on:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 im going ot assume this means nothing for DC because you are the king of leading us on:) just the messenger, king of all meltdowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 im going ot assume this means nothing for DC because you are the king of leading us on:) Tack on another foot for NYC. a few more clouds for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 low 4 mb weaker slower to get the precip in 0.10 by 7pm ric 0.05 for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tombo: hr 42 sub 1004 about 100-125 miles east of lewes.1-.25 through the whole region .25-.5 southern jers all of del then back through balt and ne md.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks a bit better dc and northeast compared to 0z... naso much to the southwest / west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 48 ric ~0.20 dc ~0.25 bwi ~.30 lyh 0.10 cho 0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 definitely lower on qpf, even for DOVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro has explosion of precip at hr 12 all back through nc some places went from less than a tenth to 0.50" Surprised a 1/25/00 card has not been played yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 terrible for DC .18 IAD is .13 its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 .bwi is .22 PHL is only .32 NYC is a bust..barely .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 48 ric ~0.20 dc ~0.25 bwi ~.30 lyh 0.10 cho 0.10 BWI-.22 DCA-.18 IAD-.13 Plenty of time to work it down to 12/26 numbers folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 terrible for DC .18 IAD is .13 its over Enjoy your inch, Ji! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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