SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DCA NAM Bufkit http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbwi.dat IAD NAM Bufkit http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kiad.dat The DCA link is the BWi one again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z NAM Bufkit at BWI http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbwi.dat This doesn't show the snow starting until 7pm tomorrow. Later than what I have been hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like Fozz has chosen "ratios" as his word of the day. Shut up, Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The DCA link is the BWi one again... http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kdca.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This doesn't show the snow starting until 7pm tomorrow. Later than what I have been hearing. That would help with accumulations. If it starts tomorrow afternoon between 12-2PM and it's not moderate to heavy it will have a hard time accumulating especially on roads etc until around 4-5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Phin and Fozz...take your bickering elsewhere. Like PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Phin and Fozz...take your bickering elsewhere. Like PMs. Storm mode black ops mod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Storm mode black ops mod? Damn straight. I'm a freaking storm mode ninja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 historically yes.. in this case probably yes that is if you mean ending with less rather than more Yes. I am saying the odds of us busting lower on snow totals is greater than us busting high on the current .25-.35 QPF.... unless I'm wrong on both accounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It there any significance to the RUC closing the western "barrel" earlier and east of other guidance? I figured it probably doesn't matter but didn't know if anyone wanted to chime in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM similar to RGEM for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seems like a real consensus of .2 to .3 qpf from west to east across the DCA/BWI metro area it all comes down to ratios whether we see more than a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This doesn't show the snow starting until 7pm tomorrow. Later than what I have been hearing. That would help with accumulations. If it starts tomorrow afternoon between 12-2PM and it's not moderate to heavy it will have a hard time accumulating especially on roads etc until around 4-5PM. Don't know what you've been hearing, but I've been telling people late afternoon/early evening Tuesday (so 5-7pm) for snow to start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seems like a real consensus of .2 to .3 qpf from west to east across the DCA/BWI metro area it all comes down to ratios whether we see more than a couple inches Yep and i'm not sure where the 27-1 ratios are coming from in the output. I think they tend to be high on that product. It's funny, that in terms of clearing roads, .30" liquid equivalent is the same whether it has a 20-1 ratio or an 11-1. It weighs the same to the plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't know what you've been hearing, but I've been telling people late afternoon/early evening Tuesday (so 5-7pm) for snow to start... That seems to be what the models are doing. Most occurs after dark which is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't know what you've been hearing, but I've been telling people late afternoon/early evening Tuesday (so 5-7pm) for snow to start... NWS goin with 10 am DC and 12pm Bmore. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/onset/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That seems to be what the models are doing. Most occurs after dark which is a plus. are you doing the chat on WaPo? when is it? i thought noon but i see another is sched for noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 should we rename this thread the qpf thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 are you doing the chat on WaPo? when is it? i thought noon but i see another is sched for noon. No, I was but the post wanted later and Jason will do it. I'm going out for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 are you doing the chat on WaPo? when is it? i thought noon but i see another is sched for noon. We're doing a chat? Is there an e-mail chain I'm missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're doing a chat? Is there an e-mail chain I'm missing? jason asked wes basically.. i think i was cc'ed because i do pm update on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW: DT's "Final Call" has DC-Baltimore with 2 to 5 inches. But the more noteworthy thing is he seems to be taking it hard on his Facebook Page that the storm he had been hyping for Richmond for the past 2 weeks around this date is not going to happen. He said it's going to be a "looonnnngggg time" before he ever goes out on a limb and suggests a big snowfall in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like Fozz has chosen "ratios" as his word of the day. Shut up, Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seems like a real consensus of .2 to .3 qpf from west to east across the DCA/BWI metro area it all comes down to ratios whether we see more than a couple inches We'll get 1 to 3 inches as like it. We just need to accept that and enjoy it. When its snowing tomorrow for a few hours, we'll all be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tv news just pushed start of snow back to late afternoon uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting EXPERIMENTAL HPC product might give weenies some hope: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Basically 50%+ chance of 4" of snow for Balt north and east 80%+ chance of 2" of snow for all points north of DC. 20%+ chance of 6" of snow for areas northeast of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We'll get 1 to 3 inches as like it. We just need to accept that and enjoy it. When its snowing tomorrow for a few hours, we'll all be fine. I plan on being on the high end of the lower end of the high low range of snow totals assuming that the higher ratios perform out here...if the lower ratios happen than I will probably be on the low end of the high low totals again assuming that the ratios are correct and the models have this thing progged right as far as high and low ends go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tv news just pushed start of snow back to late afternoon uh oh good news since since the waxing crescent moon angle will bolster ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I plan on being on the high end of the lower end of the high low range of snow totals assuming that the higher ratios perform out here...if the lower ratios happen than I will probably be on the low end of the high low totals again assuming that the ratios are correct and the models have this thing progged right as far as high and low ends go Are you high making this post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is the later start now being predicted help or hurt us with accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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