Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I agree, I think people tend to ride a roller coaster when in reality the models are often vacillating between solutions. Part of it is the emotional attachment to snow that most here have....me too. most of the time, it's wise not to change forecasts based on one model flipping for one run as it might flip back. I like the CWG handling of the system. it is hard to be totally detached.. yesterday at 18z you saw me questioning if i was still being too weenie by going toward the bullish end of the conservative side. that could still be the case... i do really want it to snow. case to case outside 3-5 days or so most people would do far better emotionally and accuracy wise to heavily weight climo, be it overall, enso etc, or seasonal based. i know we all love snow but a day 5-10 6-12"+ snowstorm is pretty unlikely to happen as you of course well know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm almost about to put Jebman on ignore. The brilliance of the US education system at work right there, folks. Edumacation, FTMFL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sorry for taking away your precious .01" Sat morning BWI reported .3" of snow on .01" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM at good ratios would give Ji about 3.5 inches the GFS with incredible ratios would give Ji's house about an inch.... My guess is that we will now be fringed and I am going to have to be ok with that. Good luck to the Easties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6Z GFS gave BWI .23" qpf and Bufkit had 5.3" of snow I know Bufkit is generally high w/snow totals, but still, 4-5" on 12Z qpf may be doable IF IT VERIFIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it's too early to congratulate anyone but im very happy with the progression based on my thoughts the last 5 days or so. i've tried to come to conclusions myself more than follow anyone but a huge part of my overall forecasting knowledge these days comes from cwg and wes so i gotta give props to the teachers. Yeah, it's not wise to accept congrats before the event has played out. I've liked how we've handled it but did for the dec 26 storm too and that didn't work that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like LWX is locking in on a 2 to 4 inch forecast for most of us. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good news is, NY/NJ/LI/CT/ENE will get buried. Shut your face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like LWX is locking in on a 2 to 4 inch forecast for most of us. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Yes, but they've had that map even when I woke up to the WSW. The downgrade to a WWA is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like LWX is locking in on a 2 to 4 inch forecast for most of us. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Looks like Baltimore City is in the 4-5" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6Z GFS gave BWI .23" qpf and Bufkit had 5.3" of snow I know Bufkit is generally high w/snow totals, but still, 4-5" on 12Z qpf may be doable IF IT VERIFIES The GFS QPF is virtually unchanged from 6z. 4-5" may be on the table if a miracle happens and the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like LWX is locking in on a 2 to 4 inch forecast for most of us. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Good for them, Ive been locked on that forecast for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody have exact qpf for Annapolis and KBWI from the 12Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes, but they've had that map even when I woke up to the WSW. The downgrade to a WWA is inevitable. i think the nam/gfs probably would still support a warning balt and ne whether or not it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i don't think the ukie is ever going to be west this winter if it shows west in the long range expect a lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i think the nam/gfs probably would still support a warning balt and ne whether or not it verifies Maybe if ratios are 15:1 or more but I don't think they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe if ratios are 15:1 or more but I don't think they will be. im not terribly fixated on qpf output.. more potentialwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 im not terribly fixated on qpf output.. more potentialwise You think upper air maps show better potential than what those runs have on the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 StnID: kmtn Model: nam Run: 20110110/1200 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 110112/0000Z 36 10007KT 30.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110112/0100Z 37 09007KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0200Z 38 09006KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.7 0.031|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0300Z 39 VRB02KT 30.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.9|| 1.6 0.067|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0400Z 40 34005KT 30.6F SNOW 17:1| 1.7|| 3.3 0.098|| 0.22 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0500Z 41 36005KT 30.6F SNOW 21:1| 1.7|| 5.0 0.083|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0600Z 42 36005KT 30.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 6.0 0.059|| 0.36 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/0700Z 43 33005KT 30.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 6.6 0.035|| 0.40 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0800Z 44 30005KT 29.8F SNOW 27:1| 0.4|| 7.0 0.016|| 0.41 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0900Z 45 29005KT 29.7F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 7.3 0.012|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't take the 12z NAM at face value, you should know that it is probably still overdoing our QPF. We'll probably get a solid 2-4", which would perfectly fall into the criteria of an advisory. Our winter storm watch is probably based on the 0z NAM, which I think is way overdone. They will downgrade to a WWA eventually, I'll be shocked if they don't. They probably will, and I agree with you about our totals. I just think it's kind of odd that we are (as you admit) literally just ONE inch away from warning criteria (and over it according to some guidance) and you are insisting that there is "no way" it will happen. It probably won't, but making definitive statements when small changes can make a big difference seems odd. I think a Watch was the right call - and probably going to an advisory will also be the right call. But insisting one way or another is misgudied imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 StnID: kmtn Model: nam Run: 20110110/1200 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 110112/0000Z 36 10007KT 30.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110112/0100Z 37 09007KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0200Z 38 09006KT 30.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.7 0.031|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0300Z 39 VRB02KT 30.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.9|| 1.6 0.067|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0400Z 40 34005KT 30.6F SNOW 17:1| 1.7|| 3.3 0.098|| 0.22 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0500Z 41 36005KT 30.6F SNOW 21:1| 1.7|| 5.0 0.083|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0600Z 42 36005KT 30.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 6.0 0.059|| 0.36 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/0700Z 43 33005KT 30.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 6.6 0.035|| 0.40 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0800Z 44 30005KT 29.8F SNOW 27:1| 0.4|| 7.0 0.016|| 0.41 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0900Z 45 29005KT 29.7F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 7.3 0.012|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 I will take it lol at the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You think upper air maps show better potential than what those runs have on the surface? not necessarily but it's close enough in that area that you could bust low going cautious. hopefully for the nws things will be a little clearer by the time they have to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z NAM Bufkit at BWI http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbwi.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z NAM Bufkit at BWI http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbwi.dat Once again, the ratios are loltastic. I'm pretty sure Dec 2009 had a Bufkit that gave IAD 50" right before 12/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the odds busting low are greater than us busting on the higher end...right? Don't pulll the trigger on a WSW if you don't have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the odds busting low are greater than us busting on the higher end...right? Don't pulll the trigger on a WSW if you don't have to historically yes.. in this case probably yes that is if you mean ending with less rather than more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z NAM Bufkit at BWI http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbwi.dat DCA NAM Bufkit http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbwi.dat IAD NAM Bufkit http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kiad.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DCA NAM Bufkit http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbwi.dat IAD NAM Bufkit http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kiad.dat 27:1 ratios?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 27:1 ratios?? It's a lock. Book it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like Fozz has chosen "ratios" as his word of the day. Shut up, Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.