Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think I get 3" from this.......enough to whiten the landscape.......I say downgrade the WSW to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Been wondering why he isn't here defending Accuwx's honor. I want to know how this ridiculous map squares with Accuwx's call for "heavy snow" in the DC-BOS corridor from 5 days ago. Oh and also how they had Atlanta and other big Southern cities barely in the "icing" area if anything at all. What's ATL have now, 4"+? I would go back and grab that map for comparison if I were truly evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nice move toward nam.. or they are moving together. but there is some consistency b/w the two at least!! There is, a 1 to 3 inch forecast from the city west and a 2-4 east and northeast of the city look pretty good for the dc area. The models really haven't changed that significantly over the past couple of runs, just minor qpf changes over our area. Farther n I'm sure the differences are much more marked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good news is, NY/NJ/LI/CT/ENE will get buried. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you don't think was improvement on the gfs and that Baltimore doesn't have potential, then there is a problem. Good run IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guess that's all she wrote...no more precip in the bucket after 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guess that's all she wrote...no more precip in the bucket after 42hr. Yup. IAD is around .15, DCA .2, and BWI .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Alabama and the deep south got most of the snow from this. I'm all for bein' all neighborly and such - but this is supposed to be a two way street. Norfolk gets all the Christmas snow. Now Alabam gets all the snow from this system. Didn't they ever hear of SHARING? Guess not. Just take what you can get and run. I can understand NYC, New Jersey and especially BOS getting two feet of fresh powder come Thursday, Hell I am ROOTING for Belmar to get an ENCORE this week - They are ENTITLED to deep snows every season - But this deep south snow thing this winter. This is La NINA, not an El Nino fook Just SUCKS to be us in the Mid Atl. Just SUCKS to be us. The NEW Klingon Anti Snow Shield - Coming soon to a neighborhood near you - In N VA, DCA, Central MD and SE PA. Okay maybe NOT Philly this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you don't think was improvement on the gfs and that Baltimore doesn't have potential, then there is a problem. Good run IMO. Potential to whiten the landscape.....yes. Potential for warning criteria snow? Forget it if you're west of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Alabama and the deep south got most of the snow from this. I'm all for bein' all neighborly and such - but this is supposed to be a two way street. Norfolk gets all the Christmas snow. Now Alabam gets all the snow from this system. Didn't they ever hear of SHARING? Guess not. Just take what you can get and run. I can understand NYC and especially BOS getting two feet of fresh powder com Thursday - They are ENTITLED to deep snows every season - But this deep south snow thing this winter. Just SUCKS to be us in the Mid Atl. Just SUCKS to be us. When Jebman starts to turn into Ji-bman, you know things are bad ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 When Jebman starts to turn into Ji-bman, you know things are bad ;-) I'm almost about to put Jebman on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There is, a 1 to 3 inch forecast from the city west and a 2-4 east and northeast of the city look pretty good for the dc area. The models really haven't changed that significantly over the past couple of runs, just minor qpf changes over our area. Farther n I'm sure the differences are much more marked. i think if you throw out the outlier runs here and there many models over the past few days have fallen into that range. people just spend too much time looking at each individual run. i think most would be far better off if they set a rule for themselves to only update their thoughts like once a day until within like 36 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Potential to whiten the landscape.....yes. Potential for warning criteria snow........forget it if you're west of the bay LOL...you keep repeating this, despite the fact that some models are actually showing this. Of COURSE there this is the potential for warning criteria snow somewhere west of the bay. In Leesburg? Prolly not, no. But N and NE of Baltimore, there is absolutely the chance for someone to end up with 5+ inches. Some of the models are showing this NOW - the 12Z NAM JUST showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you don't think was improvement on the gfs and that Baltimore doesn't have potential, then there is a problem. Good run IMO. is that what lwx is basing a wsw on??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you don't think was improvement on the gfs and that Baltimore doesn't have potential, then there is a problem. Good run IMO. Potential for what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All models have us getting at least 0.2 in DC. We are 100 miles from the heavy snow. According to the NAM it will snow from 24-42 hours. It's not all bad! We should at least enjoy our 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i think if you throw out the outlier runs here and there many models over the past few days have fallen into that range. people just spend too much time looking at each individual run. i think most would be far better off if they set a rule for themselves to only update their thoughts like once a day until within like 36 hours or so. Strongly agree. You and Wes have looked good with your calls for 1-3/2-4 throughout this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Alabama and the deep south got most of the snow from this. I'm all for bein' all neighborly and such - but this is supposed to be a two way street. Norfolk gets all the Christmas snow. Now Alabam gets all the snow from this system. Didn't they ever hear of SHARING? Guess not. Just take what you can get and run. I can understand NYC, New Jersey and especially BOS getting two feet of fresh powder come Thursday, Hell I am ROOTING for Belmar to get an ENCORE this week - They are ENTITLED to deep snows every season - But this deep south snow thing this winter. This is La NINA, not an El Nino fook Just SUCKS to be us in the Mid Atl. Just SUCKS to be us. I'm sure that even this storm will have you post one heavy snow/crushing winds obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm almost about to put Jebman on ignore. Noted. Need to post less. Back to social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL...you keep repeating this, despite the fact that some models are actually showing this. Of COURSE there this is the potential for warning criteria snow somewhere west of the bay. In Leesburg? Prolly not, no. But N and NE of Baltimore, there is absolutely the chance for someone to end up with 5+ inches. Some of the models are showing this NOW - the 12Z NAM JUST showed this. Don't take the 12z NAM at face value, you should know that it is probably still overdoing our QPF. We'll probably get a solid 2-4", which would perfectly fall into the criteria of an advisory. Our winter storm watch is probably based on the 0z NAM, which I think is way overdone. They will downgrade to a WWA eventually, I'll be shocked if they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm sure that even this storm will have you post one heavy snow/crushing winds obs or the inglorious , infamous, JEBWalk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Picture from a friend of mine who lives in Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yup. IAD is around .15, DCA .2, and BWI .25 BWI .26" to be precise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i think if you throw out the outlier runs here and there many models over the past few days have fallen into that range. people just spend too much time looking at each individual run. i think most would be far better off if they set a rule for themselves to only update their thoughts like once a day until within like 36 hours or so. I agree, I think people tend to ride a roller coaster when in reality the models are often vacillating between solutions. Part of it is the emotional attachment to snow that most here have....me too. most of the time, it's wise not to change forecasts based on one model flipping for one run as it might flip back. I like the CWG handling of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Picture from a friend of mine who lives in Atlanta You don't see that everyday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BWI .26" to be precise Sorry for taking away your precious .01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Picture from a friend of mine who lives in Atlanta Looks like it's about 2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I agree, I think people tend to ride a roller coaster when in reality the models are often vacillating between solutions. Part of it is the emotional attachment to snow that most here have....me too. most of the time, it's wise not to change forecasts based on one model flipping for one run as it might flip back. I like the CWG handling of the system. Simple phiosophy...set your standards low (inch or two), let it verify...and anything else that falls is cake. Pretty straight forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't take the 12z NAM at face value, you should know that it is probably still overdoing our QPF. We'll probably get a solid 2-4", which would perfectly fall into the criteria of an advisory. Even the 12z NAM only gives KBWI 4 inches with a 10:1 ratio. The 12z GFS gives KBWI like .3". Both of those fall into advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strongly agree. You and Wes have looked good with your calls for 1-3/2-4 throughout this whole thing. it's too early to congratulate anyone but im very happy with the progression based on my thoughts the last 5 days or so. i've tried to come to conclusions myself more than follow anyone but a huge part of my overall forecasting knowledge these days comes from cwg and wes so i gotta give props to the teachers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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