mattie g Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sim radar looks awesome for NJ/NYC Not picking on you, Fozz, but why do people keep bringing this up? It only pisses people off. Sorry...back to the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the nam is about perfect tho not quite as much as 0z which might have been perfect... how often do we get perfect? i'm still somewhat nervous where i sit.. if i was southwest i'd be even moreso. the fact that the RGEM is quite expansive with its precip shield is very encouraging to me we did NOT see that with the 12/26 system on the short range models in my eyes, NAM and RGEM are about as close as 2 diff models can get all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BTW mitch -- http://www.americanw...029#entry261029 I think that answers your convergence question well, it wasn't a question we want to see it far south like that it always shows up before the slp forms the better the convergence, the quicker the development usually, though there are certainly other factors at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They should start calling Mid Atlantic'ers the 'Inchers'. We take our snow one inch at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the fact that the RGEM is quite expansive with its precip shield is very encouraging to me we did NOT see that with the 12/26 system on the short range models in my eyes, NAM and RGEM are about as close as 2 diff models can get all things considered overall im fairly happy with the evolution. it will be nice to get some snow on the ground.. probably the biggest of the season so far imby. i wish the euro didnt back off last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hilarious you're new here, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seems consistent with a light/mod hit for most of us Low's a bit east of where we would like it at 36, but same thoughts here. Precip shield looks big, and by extrapolation, the missing hour 42 frame seems like it wouldn't be terrible. Light precip at both 36 and 48 doesn't bode poorly. I'll take my 12+ hours of at least light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Biggest GFS run in our winter so far starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 overall im fairly happy with the evolution. it will be nice to get some snow on the ground.. probably the biggest of the season so far imby. i wish the euro didnt back off last night... I am too and like where the cwg forecast. 1-3" city west and 2-4 east and northeast. Looks like the ratios will be in the 11-14 to one range but that's just a guess. Looks like the best snow production area is a little warmer than the typical dendrite range until possibly late in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 overall im fairly happy with the evolution. it will be nice to get some snow on the ground.. probably the biggest of the season so far imby. i wish the euro didnt back off last night... DT says the euro is useless at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DT says the euro is useless at this range. DT also screwed the pooch with the last storm, so i would not take what he says as gospel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 fwiw, 12z run has a really amped up area of precip off the SE coast vs. 6z much heavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DT says the euro is useless at this range. Its qpf verifies better than the nam or GFS at this time range based on HPC statistical verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DT says the euro is useless at this range. DTs name carries the same weight as JBs to me. They both suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DT says the euro is useless at this range. he should compile a list of when to throw out the good models that arent snowy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS really seems to have lost the MW slp I hope that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its qpf verifies better than the nam or GFS at this time range based on HPC statistical verification. And I'm pretty sure SREF is close behind (no joke).....though all of them are beaten by the multi-model medley products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 closed 850 low in south central IN/IL at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Long live the snow hole....This is comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run should be a bit better for coastal areas at least.. im giving up trying to predict the extent of the snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck That is one motherfooking piece of **** of a snowmap. I hope he busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is a bit more south than 6z/0z with the h5 s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck LOL LOL! That's hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run should be a bit better for coastal areas at least.. im giving up trying to predict the extent of the snow hole tho the surface kinda sucks i guess.. should look at that i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck even though he may be right in the I95 corridor, I think the heavier snow in the Shend/Valley than us is absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looka like GFS is going to sh*t the bed to me...sucks at 24 at the surface anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck I am color blind, so I could be wrong, but why in the world does he have the NW dc suburbs in 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck That is a horrible map for our area because east of the Allegheny front to about DC has the best chance of 1-3 or nothing for that matter. Between DC and Baltimore would be closer to 1-3 or 2-4 and 3-6 looks like a good bet for all of the eastern shore from easton north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 even henry believes in our bad luck So...anyone in the mood for some Munchkins from Dunkin Donuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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