Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'll take my inch of snow, and I will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'll take my inch of snow, and I will love it. NAM gives you .24 Jeb IF it verifies, you'll do better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Since the NAM is probably the upper end of our possibilities, I'd just go for a full WWA, with 2-4 at DC and 3-5 at BWI. That is IF the GFS and EURO aren't a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guess we will soon find out if the NAM is smoking something good.. RGEM should be out shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agree. If the 12z NAM were correct and lets say we use 13:1 ratios for the three major airports, it would suggest around 3.5 inches at IAD, 4.2 inches at DCA, and 5.1 inches at BWI. I wouldn't use 13:1 at BWI, though... 10:1 would probably be better for there and maybe 8:1 on Delmarva. (and 12:1 at DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Perhaps we should call this winter "Drymaggedon"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I want to sink NJ and Long Island into the ocean. That'd just move the baroclinic zone westward. It'd become a never ending process of sinking more and more land. Before you know it we'd have no more maple syrup and macintosh apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF are now absolutely screaming rerun of 12/26 Then this proves the met from Baltimore correct that did not agree with the WSW from LWX. They are smarter than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Then this proves the met from Baltimore correct that did not agree with the WSW from LWX. They are smarter than we think. one BIG difference is that the NAM on 12/26 showed us with almost no QPF and has been pretty bullish with this event comparatively speaking SREF's came out before NAM and if NAM would have followed suit, I would have folded but it didn't and SREFs have been horrendous with all the events for us so I'll hedge my bets against SREF's and with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z RGEM at 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just wish one of these runs would just give us 6-10 inches just to make us happy for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 big time convergence firing up along the SE coast (time sensitive) http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=qc&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just wish one of these runs would just give us 6-10 inches just to make us happy for a few hours I just wish a forecast of 3-6" would verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just wish a forecast of 3-6" would verify Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM looks east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lets just all accept the fact that we'll get a nice 6 hour period of light to moderate snow and call it a day. No need to be negative, but lets be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM looks east? it has had that look since yesterday at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lets just all accept the fact that we'll get a nice 6 hour period of light to moderate snow and call it a day. No need to be negative, but lets be realistic. you're new here, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it has had that look since yesterday at 12Z I don't think the 24 hr map is out yet. Its not for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think the 24 hr map is out yet. Its not for me compared to last night's 0Z run, the trough out west is digging a bit more; we'll see if it makes a diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 is there anything worth tracking after this storm. almost every storm i see on the GFS and EURO in the future look good to the south and the north of us but skip over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is this a good thing for the MA? big time convergence firing up along the SE coast (time sensitive) http://weather.unisy...=qc&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z RGEM at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lets just all accept the fact that we'll get a nice 6 hour period of light to moderate snow and call it a day. No need to be negative, but lets be realistic. For all that may fall this particular storm has been one if not the most frustrating to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 is there anything worth tracking after this storm. almost every storm i see on the GFS and EURO in the future look good to the south and the north of us but skip over us imho, we want a warm up for several weeks then let the cold return the pattern will definitely shift some from the current one and we can take our chances with that we don't need much of a shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strike one against the NAM 36 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif 48 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strike one against the NAM 36 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif 48 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif seems consistent with a light/mod hit for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seems consistent with a light/mod hit for most of us I can't tell QPF so perhaps thats why I tossed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the nam is about perfect tho not quite as much as 0z which might have been perfect... how often do we get perfect? i'm still somewhat nervous where i sit.. if i was southwest i'd be even moreso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BTW mitch -- http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8284-water-vapor/page__pid__261029#entry261029 I think that answers your convergence question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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