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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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To be honest, thats close. Thats closing in on 4 inches of snow if you use 12:1 snow ratios at DCA/BWI

Agreed, certainly close enough to issue a watch. A little jog in our favor and 5+ can easily verify. LWX can easily downgrade to an advisory once precip in on the doorstep and models are locked.

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Yeah it's pretty dope how the Carolina, Deep South, Upper MA and all of NE are having awesome winters and DC/Central MD/NOVA just keep getting magically screwed.

Sigh.

Of course, it's bound to happen when we get nearly 4 feet of snow in the span of 5 days.

11 months ago seems like an eternity now.

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That was yesterday, this nam has better vertical motion so I'll have to rethink ratios later today so they might be higher than that. I'll look later today.

I would go with higher ratios (12-14:1) for the DC area since the air in the low-levels seems to be colder than expected so far with the Gulf/Coastal low.

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FINAL TOTAL

DCA-.32

IAD-.26

BWI-.39

Assuming better than climo ratios (so, 12-13:1)...if LWX is riding the NAM, I'd expect Warnings for Balt City, Balt County, and Harford County and then Advisories for most of the rest of the area (except far west toward Winchester).

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I would go with higher ratios (12-14:1) for the DC area since the air in the low-levels seems to be colder than expected so far with the Gulf/Coastal low.

Do you think LWX is making a good call for a WSW? We live in a high impact area so I think they are on the right page with highlighting the chance in advance and can then easily downgrade. It's better to do this then issue an advisory and then have to upgrade to a warning if the slim odds pan out for us.

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Do you think LWX is making a good call for a WSW? We live in a high impact area so I think they are on the right page with highlighting the chance in advance and can then easily downgrade. It's better to do this then issue an advisory and then have to upgrade to a warning if the slim odds pan out for us.

I don't like how far south and east it is, but this low's doing all sorts of crazy things and if the NAM verifies better with less mixing we could be looking at something similar to what they put out. However, I would still keep areas S of Annapolis out of the WSW for now.

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Assuming better than climo ratios (so, 12-13:1)...if LWX is riding the NAM, I'd expect Warnings for Balt City, Balt County, and Harford County and then Advisories for most of the rest of the area (except far west toward Winchester).

Agree. If the 12z NAM were correct and lets say we use 13:1 ratios for the three major airports, it would suggest around 3.5 inches at IAD, 4.2 inches at DCA, and 5.1 inches at BWI.

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the great part is that NYC gets 1.13..we cant even get .40

that will change on the NAM as it gets closer as in less qpf; it always happens on the NAM

we're much closer in and hopefully, NAM won't pull the plug, but anything is possible

Euro only gave BWI .25 or .26

the problem remains the ever presence of the snow hole to the SW

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