showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One thing I can say is that it's about time the GFS finally started showing a more realistic look with that double barreled low. Can't understand why it went several days showing a long duration track without more then very minimal interaction between the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Off thread for a second... I just want to say that I was out of line last night for what I said about the forecasters at LWX. I obviously do not know how difficult their jobs are. Apparently from what I gather from you guys, it's pretty difficult around here. A lot harder than south Louisiana. My apologies if I offended anyone. I don't want everyone to think I'm an a-hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is becoming a joke in cent md. Wbal wont go with lwx in their wsw. Models dont agree on crap. One model may be too wet. What the hell is going on??? Whot or who do you believe.??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Cool story. Too bad I said TONY PANN and not Tom Tasselmeyer. We won't be getting 5 inches in Central MD. LWX is covering their ass. Good thing a watch only means there is the POTENTIAL and is not a forecast for 5". While the watch may be slightly too far west, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that certain areas in the watch get 5 (Baltimore N/E of course being the most likely). I know you know this, but a watch doesn't even mean that WSW snows are likely, just that it is within the realm of possibilities. LWX is not "covering their ass." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Off thread for a second... I just want to say that I was out of line last night for what I said about the forecasters at LWX. I obviously do not know how difficult their jobs are. Apparently from what I gather from you guys, it's pretty difficult around here. A lot harder than south Louisiana. My apologies if I offended anyone. I don't want everyone to think I'm an a-hole. Don't tell me you actually had to worry about snow in the Bayou? You will get used to the fact that the VA and MD area very rarely have a cut and dry forcast when it comes to winter storms unlike to the north or to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Cool story. Too bad I said TONY PANN and not Tom Tasselmeyer. We won't be getting 5 inches in Central MD. LWX is covering their ass. something else to note. T tasselmeyer is the only one certified by nws as a met and has a bs in meteorology. The other stations dont have a met by degree on their staff. Bob turk is a geologist, and freely admits to being a messenger. Channel 2 is not a certified met, to my knowledge. Wbal also missed saturdays forecast, imo. I,m really surprised wbal is NOT going with a wsw, but then that is their priviledge. Tasselmeyer must have strong feelings that it wont happen. Very interesting. Another interesting point Justin Berk, a memeber here is also a degreed met. Wonder what he thinks/?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't tell me you actually had to worry about snow in the Bayou? You will get used to the fact that the VA and MD area very rarely have a cut and dry forcast when it comes to winter storms unlike to the north or to the south. Probably once every 4 or 5 years on average. Our biggest challenge down there is forecasting precip types. We rarely have problems with moisture. Before I moved to NOVA in the summer of 09, the most snow I ever saw at one time was 3 inches, and that was in 1988. I guess last year spoiled me. That's all. I'll get back on topic now. I know we're in Storm Mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPete Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 something else to note. T tasselmeyer is the only one certified by nws as a met and has a bs in meteorology. The other stations dont have a met by degree on their staff. Bob turk is a geologist, and freely admits to being a messenger. Channel 2 is not a certified met, to my knowledge. Wbal also missed saturdays forecast, imo. I,m really surprised wbal is NOT going with a wsw, but then that is their priviledge. Tasselmeyer must have strong feelings that it wont happen. Very interesting. Another interesting point Justin Berk, a memeber here is also a degreed met. Wonder what he thinks/?? Justin Berk's First Call New Policy is to give the confident number with a '+' if there is more potential. So many factors.. and never enough time to explain on TV (why it seems rushed often). Here is my thinking below. I will try to compile more details in a blog later this morning.Baltimore/Westminster: How cold the air aloft will determine what kind of snowflake we get. The moisture contest will most likly stay under 1/2", but snow ratios between 12:1 or 15:1 will make the difference.Bel Air/Cecil County and north/east: You will be closer to the coastal storm and get higher precipitation. The How Much? Potential for much more, but as the storm along the coast gets stronger... it could make the snowflakes 'wetter' which don't fluff as high. Lower snow ratios could cut down some potential. If the 850 mb temps stay -5C, you could really see much more. Annapolis to Easton: You could end up on the edge of the moderate precip, but slightly warmer temperatures will make for a 'wetter' snowflake and compact the pile. This is why I placed a safe 3", but any hint at colder air aloft could also bump that for you. Easton/Denton/Millington: You could get into some wrap around behind the Low after midnight into Wed am... that may also bump you higher in the + range. Eastern Shore: The banding is about where sleet mixes in...even freezing rain or rain between Salisbury and Ocean City. It will end back as snow, but the warmer air aloft and mixing make all of the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we are only about a 100-150 miles southwest adjustment of the coastal from actually having a very good outcome. That's kind of like saying if the Redskins had only won 6 more games, they would be in the playoffs. Does anyone know how well the models have done with the storm so far? Are areas in the southeast getting what was progged or is it vastly different? I wasn't paying too much attention to what was expected down there since I only care about my back yard and OPM's back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is becoming a joke in cent md. Wbal wont go with lwx in their wsw. Models dont agree on crap. One model may be too wet. What the hell is going on??? Whot or who do you believe.??? I believe DC and Baltimore will struggle to get an inch, if that. Most of us know that the WS Watch will be downgraded to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't tell me you actually had to worry about snow in the Bayou? You will get used to the fact that the VA and MD area very rarely have a cut and dry forcast when it comes to winter storms unlike to the north or to the south. Actually, "cut" and "dry" are two words that really seem to fit this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this might help some of you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Justin Berk is like the NAM...take his accumulation forecasts and divide them by 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's kind of like saying if the Redskins had only won 6 more games, they would be in the playoffs. Does anyone know how well the models have done with the storm so far? Are areas in the southeast getting what was progged or is it vastly different? I wasn't paying too much attention to what was expected down there since I only care about my back yard and OPM's back yard. Not really, Because the playoffs started and the Redskins aren't in it. It would be like if we were headed into week 17 and the Redskins had to beat the Patriots and the 49ers had to beat to the Bears in order for the Redskins to make the playoffs. Is it likely? No. But is it still possible? Yes. What you are saying would be equivalent to after the storm ending saying hey if that coastal developed 100 miles south we could have been in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So Tony Pann says 1-4" for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I believe DC and Baltimore will struggle to get an inch, if that. It seems like people think that if it won't snow 4"+, it can't snow at all. It is possible to get an inch or two of snow and nothing more. Pretty much every model gives us at least 1-2." And don't bring the 12/26 storm into this because as many have mentioned (including Wes), this is a different set up. I'm with Ian...the changes in mood here are pretty funny. Reading the posts after the NAM last night were hilarious considering many of the people posting "yes!! wow!" were the same ones about to jump off a bridge on Saturday night. Then the 0z GFS came out looking nothing like the NAM (shocker), and those same people changed their tones again. I'm all for model hugging...I do it too and I understand getting really excited/down over a particular run, but "struggling to get an inch?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Justin Berk's First Call He'll bust high on most of that. Maybe should've put minus signs instead of plusses? I would rather make the point that it does not seem too smart to make a snowfall map with 1-inch increments. Bold, but not smart. He will have a lot harder time verifying than if he went with a general 2-4" for the whole area. I will clarify that I don't think 2-4" will verify either--I'm just saying that by making his range(s) broader, he'd have a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPete Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He'll bust high on most of that. Maybe should've put minus signs instead of plusses? I would rather make the point that it does not seem too smart to make a snowfall map with 1-inch increments. Bold, but not smart. He will have a lot harder time verifying than if he went with a general 2-4" for the whole area. I will clarify that I don't think 2-4" will verify either--I'm just saying that by making his range(s) broader, he'd have a better chance. Well, I'm gonna go ahead and keep hugging that map because I like what I see. I'll also prepare to be sorely disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Justin Berk is like the NAM...take his accumulation forecasts and divide them by 2 doesnt justin berk work with tony pann?? if so your comment is ridiculous!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So Tony Pann says 1-4" for DC and Baltimore. Conversely, this forecast is kind of bad for the opposite reason of Berks'. His range is too broad. The difference between a 1-inch snowfall and a 4-inch snowfall in DC is huge, and I feel the forecast should at least take a stab at whether it will be significant or not. He is not committing either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He'll bust high on most of that. Maybe should've put minus signs instead of plusses? I would rather make the point that it does not seem too smart to make a snowfall map with 1-inch increments. Bold, but not smart. He will have a lot harder time verifying than if he went with a general 2-4" for the whole area. I will clarify that I don't think 2-4" will verify either--I'm just saying that by making his range(s) broader, he'd have a better chance. WOW for people who dont have the equipment and knowledge that those trained people have, were really making some unbelievable statements about what is going to happen. Obvioulsy whal is reflecting what lwx is saying. Who is to say their wrong?? Are you really that good ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe its a good idea to not exactly have the SREFS on our side this time...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 doesnt justin berk work with tony pann?? if so your comment is ridiculous!!! Tony Pann expects 1-4" across DC and central MD. Justin Berk expects 3-5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW for people who dont have the equipment and knowledge that those trained people have, were really making some unbelievable statements about what is going to happen. Obvioulsy whal is reflecting what lwx is saying. Who is to say their wrong?? Are you really that good ??? The fact that they were wrong on the last two storms makes it a valid point......we'll see how it plays out though. They meaning the NWS, and I guess Justin for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe its a good idea to not exactly have the SREFS on our side this time...lol one met , in particular thinks their crap> Have they ever verified lately??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you look at this season's pattern, the larger snows have been to the North and East of the MA. NJ-Boston have been the big winners. The idea of snow breeds snow appears to be valid. Last year was prime example of the same areas were in the "jackpot" for the majority of storms. The first storm this season really set the pattern for the rest of the "coastals" that will develop. It is one of those seasons were "clippers" are our best bet for accumulating snow. So enjoy your dusting to two inches on Tuesday...at least we will see some snow. Remember here in the MA the winter of last year was epic but not the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 one met , in particular thinks their crap> Have they ever verified lately??? I dont think they have lately..I forget if they were any better last year...Although all models were better last years winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF are now absolutely screaming rerun of 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you look at this season's pattern, the larger snows have been to the North and East of the MA. NJ-Boston have been the big winners. The idea of snow breeds snow appears to be valid. Last year was prime example of the same areas were in the "jackpot" for the majority of storms. The first storm this season really set the pattern for the rest of the "coastals" that will develop. It is one of those seasons were "clippers" are our best bet for accumulating snow. So enjoy your dusting to two inches on Tuesday...at least we will see some snow. Remember here in the MA the winter of last year was epic but not the norm. Do you think we don't know all of this already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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