stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z will be seriously telling. In fact, CWG is giving it a 60% at very telling. 20% at simply telling. 20% chance of not telling at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I want to, but I'm already tired as hell and it ain't from drinking watching the game! Well this is the calmest i have been after a Ravens game all season, my chest never tightened once the whole game. I was hoping you were staying up because i love your precise EURO QPF. But you matters well get some rest because i have a feeling the next 2 days will be long and all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I love Ian!!! i'd think 3-6 isnt a bad thought process up in that area, though balt should be right on the line so i'd rather be northeast of balt... i'll try to include in my final call which was just dc area previous.. i might chicken out and wait till morning at this rate though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z will be seriously telling. In fact, CWG is giving it a 60% at very telling. 20% at simply telling. 20% chance of not telling at all. You should be a CWG contributor, i am sure they would love to have you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z will be seriously telling. In fact, CWG is giving it a 60% at very telling. 20% at simply telling. 20% chance of not telling at all. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is one of the most hectic seasons i recall personally on the models I agree, and feel for pros. I mean tomorrow a.m. is less than 24 hours before the first flakes could fall. Does LWX have to put up a watch for Baltimore on north or not? And as someone said earlier, imagine being in NY or Philly. Do you start tooting the horn for another major storm -- except during a work week day instead of the day of XMAS - or prepare for 4 inches, which most will consider a flurry compared to Dec. 26. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 possible.. i think the nam maybe is more right than the gfs precip wise. i like the euro quite a bit at this pt though. i do believe balt-ne has a legit shot at getting up toward 6 if not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z will be seriously telling. In fact, CWG is giving it a 60% at very telling. 20% at simply telling. 20% chance of not telling at all. That's just overly bullish Wes. The other guys are doubtful the models will even run on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sorta like a wife . come on man enough of the OT stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 come on man enough of the OT stuff Sorry it was in between model runs and it was boring in here my bad. I will go to timeout now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DT just said 2-4 in DCA, closer to 5" at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A good post from Messenger on NY/Philly Board that could also be of relevance here, especially Baltimore on north "Guys not to interupt your excellent discussion.....but regarding the NAM v GFS handling fo the vort lobe at 48 hours on the Jersey Shore: The NAM tried 3 different times with 2 different s/w complexes to do the exact same thing and failed since Thursday. I posted one of the maps from the other night that looks comically similar to tonights 0z NAM. It was the 12z NAM that delivered a big hit on Friday before it vanished. The other models had the energy getting out ENE instead of riding towards NYC. That's our difference here again tonight. And to add further - even the "east' models blew it in the end. Inside of 24 hours it just kept slipping further east ahead of the models which led to a big bust up here with actual storm snows. Instead of the CCB being on land, it was 200 miles offshore all within the last 12-18 hours of modeling. Just things to watch. If the euro nudges east at all tonight it's time to really be concerned about an eastward jump. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A good post from Messenger on NY/Philly Board that could also be of relevance here, especially Baltimore on north "Guys not to interupt your excellent discussion.....but regarding the NAM v GFS handling fo the vort lobe at 48 hours on the Jersey Shore: The NAM tried 3 different times with 2 different s/w complexes to do the exact same thing and failed since Thursday. I posted one of the maps from the other night that looks comically similar to tonights 0z NAM. It was the 12z NAM that delivered a big hit on Friday before it vanished. The other models had the energy getting out ENE instead of riding towards NYC. That's our difference here again tonight. And to add further - even the "east' models blew it in the end. Inside of 24 hours it just kept slipping further east ahead of the models which led to a big bust up here with actual storm snows. Instead of the CCB being on land, it was 200 miles offshore all within the last 12-18 hours of modeling. Just things to watch. If the euro nudges east at all tonight it's time to really be concerned about an eastward jump. " Messenger whines about SNE busts a lot. Not sure what he is saying way out on Cape Cod has much bearing down here other than "it could bust" which we already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM between 48 and 60 seems like it would be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM between 48 and 60 seems like it would be OK. sadly, its a carbon copy to Fri night (that busted here) with that 5mm tongue to our east and very similar to 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Meh.....GFS Ensembles Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Meh.....GFS Ensembles Look familiar? Ouch, that is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just thought I'd post Don's thoughts over here... Some evening thoughts: 1) Right now, given the good run-to-run continuity of the ECMWF and the storm's somewhat overperforming down south, I favor a compromise between the 0z NAM and GFS. That means 6" or greater snows from Philadelphia north and eastward. New York, Boston, Worcester, and Hartford are among the cities that will likely see 6"-12" (and possibly more). This coming event will be a major reason I believe NYC and BOS will likely pick up 10" or more snow this month. Unfortunately, at this time, cities such as Ottawa and Montreal likely won't receive a significant impact (probably less than 2 centimeters). 2) The 3"-6" snowfall idea still looks good for Seattle for Tuesday into Wednesday. 3) Moderation still lurks in the longer-range. But the 0z GFS hints that the AO could be descending toward the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 30, northern stream continues to be a little faster and digging a little more...the low off the se coast is also a little stornger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro is a little east with the low precip still at the nc border at 12z tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 42 has a sub 1016 low sse of hse and sub 1020 low over ohio.... hr 48 h5 closes off over ohio...with a sub 1012 low due north of hse... .01-.1 about to get into phl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 42 snow makes it to ric low a hair east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 48 0.10 near dc most all of va in 0.10"+ except leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Still not going to cut it for us. hr 54 has a sub 1004 low about 100-150 miles east of lewes del ,1-.25 nyc to buff .25-.5 belmar to willow grove to chadds ford pa then right down del line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And on that note, g'night folks. 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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