weathervswife Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What's the deal with the RGEM at 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ji's best friend has this to say. "00z gfs looks too far east and not strong enough with coastal. upper pattern improving, model should respond as it did late in dec storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 those models really stink imho so hit or miss and you never know when they are on or off Sorta like a wife . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not hard to forecast crap in a crap pattern during a crap winter. No argument here. LWX should try it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No argument here. LWX should try it. You should call them up and offer some advice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ji's best friend has this to say. "00z gfs looks too far east and not strong enough with coastal. upper pattern improving, model should respond as it did late in dec storm" He may rarely be right, but he almost never sleeps. That guys updates in the middle of the night, at least he used to when i payed for his crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 they just have a few people that make it easy for other areas to paint them with a broad, undesirable brush I enjoy reading their threads in the off season they become different when snow is the issue, that's all sort of like Pittsburgh fans as long as you talk about anything other than football i was mostly talking about the area rather than the people. i dont miss my extra 65"+ a yr nearly as much as i thought i might since this area is like 100x more interesting than most of new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM/NAM combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i was mostly talking about the area rather than the people. i dont miss my extra 65"+ a yr nearly as much as i thought i might since this area is like 100x more interesting than most of new england. People make an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the euro should hold or change only a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 People make an area. except where there are no people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Okay, looking at the surface down to our south it is apparent that none of the models have correctly modeled this storm so far. The precip is further east and north than any model that I have seen. I'm sure it will shear out as it gets to the coast but I don't think it will be as bad as currently modeled. With that in mind, coupled with the latest runs of the sref and NAM I would have to think that this storm will stronger than the models are showing. I really think that from DCA north and east to philly could be looking at a 4-8/6-12 event. Tomorrow's 12z's will be HUGE! Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM/NAM combo. Deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 except where there are no people Great observation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He may rarely be right, but he almost never sleeps. That guys updates in the middle of the night, at least he used to when i payed for his crap. He post on twitter like 24/7 lol. He's a crazy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the euro should hold or change only a little I say,based on NAM and RGEM, it will be a bit more amped BWI-.45" or more DCA-40" or more IAD-,35" or more based on modelology principles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Serious question. Take out last year, as we all know it was special. But is so much model confusion for EVERY potential East Coast snowstorm this year normal? It's hard to even tell what to put more weight in, cause they are all waffling left and right and every 6 or 12 hours. Is this normal for a typical winter or is something else afoot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Arctic front still slated to arrive Sunday per 00Z GFS. Models have held that time frame for the most part for the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 is there any correlation to snow in ATL and how we do in DC? Kinda like when the handwriting was on the wall when SAL ORF stayed all snow on 12/26 translating to a miss for us- was wondering if there is any connection to ATL getting snow and DC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I say,based on NAM and RGEM, it will be a bit more amped BWI-.45" or more DCA-40" or more IAD-,35" or more based on modelology principles possible.. i think the nam maybe is more right than the gfs precip wise. i like the euro quite a bit at this pt though. i do believe balt-ne has a legit shot at getting up toward 6 if not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Okay, looking at the surface down to our south it is apparent that none of the models have correctly modeled this storm so far. The precip is further east and north than any model that I have seen. I'm sure it will shear out as it gets to the coast but I don't think it will be as bad as currently modeled. With that in mind, coupled with the latest runs of the sref and NAM I would have to think that this storm will stronger than the models are showing. I really think that from DCA north and east to philly could be looking at a 4-8/6-12 event. Tomorrow's 12z's will be HUGE! Good night. FWIW. All day in their discussion, the NWS Upton office was saying that the storm is stronger than modeled, and the precip field is larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I say,based on NAM and RGEM, it will be a bit more amped BWI-.45" or more DCA-40" or more IAD-,35" or more based on modelology principles Are you staying up for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Arctic front still slated to arrive Sunday per 00Z GFS. Models have held that time frame for the most part for the past week. yeah, looks chilly if you prescribe to the source region for temp forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 is there any correlation to snow in ATL and how we do in DC? Kinda like when the handwriting was on the wall when SAL ORF stayed all snow on 12/26 translating to a miss for us- was wondering if there is any connection to ATL getting snow and DC.. IDK but, they were only supposed to get 1-3" tonight and from friends down there they already got like 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Serious question. Take out last year, as we all know it was special. But is so much model confusion for EVERY potential East Coast snowstorm this year normal? It's hard to even tell what to put more weight in, cause they are all waffling left and right and every 6 or 12 hours. Is this normal for a typical winter or is something else afoot? this is one of the most hectic seasons i recall personally on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Are you staying up for it? I want to, but I'm already tired as hell and it ain't from drinking watching the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is one of the most hectic seasons i recall personally on the models Don't the models have issues in La nina years more than anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 possible.. i think the nam maybe is more right than the gfs precip wise. i like the euro quite a bit at this pt though. i do believe balt-ne has a legit shot at getting up toward 6 if not there. I love Ian!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You would eat that weenie right now if he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Okay, looking at the surface down to our south it is apparent that none of the models have correctly modeled this storm so far. The precip is further east and north than any model that I have seen. I'm sure it will shear out as it gets to the coast but I don't think it will be as bad as currently modeled. And sleet is already getting into Atlanta. Way ahead of schedule. Must mean something. Probably that DC will get 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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