thunderman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Getting a little OT here but you NEVER forecast 80-90 pops when scattered storms are forecast. Summer storms impact generally small "swaths" of areas. 80-90 percent pops are reserved for widespread and pretty certain events. Not a fair "strike" against them IMO. Exactly, you go 50% at most usually. The likely pops are typically used for MCSs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW this look better to me S and coastal looks to get going sooner. look how close the +20C temp line is to the 0C line that's a nice difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 36 500 n of the nam and not as amped so it should be less than the nam around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 42 500 still less amped than nam.. no closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Won't be as wet as the NAM, not surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol.. that little bit of precip seperation. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 36 500 n of the nam and not as amped so it should be less than the nam around here You beatme to it. It's not quite as amplified as the 18Z gfs at least at 500h. It does have a great barolinic zone off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 36 500 n of the nam and not as amped so it should be less than the nam around here Stud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Won't be as wet as the NAM, not surprisingly. blues are making you act like you did when you got purples last yr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 blues are making you act like you did when you got purples last yr... You think it will be better? Better up your pops, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I mean, didn't we kinda know it wasn't going to be like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You think it will be better? Better up your pops, bro. i was trying not to call you a weenie again i was 75% chance for 1+ last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well.....48 hr isnt all that great..but hey its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is further east than NAM but 5H looks good all of a sudden at 48 hrs so maybe it can yank it west some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well.....48 hr isnt all that great..but hey its all good. OK UVV's over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's currently Sunday NIght This gets going Tuesday I feel OK - we have something to go off of, and it beats the hell out of 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Gfs should not be used in short range. It's always drier and east in all snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Gfs should not be used in short range. It's always drier and east in all snowstorms why don't you just drink more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Gfs should not be used in short range. It's always drier and east in all snowstorms says the guy in the snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 says the guy in the snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Gfs should not be used in short range. It's always drier and east in all snowstorms It is east as in it's about to hit the UKMET in London . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Gfs should not be used in short range. It's always drier and east in all snowstorms and the NAM is always to wet...take a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nam and gfs keep switching skin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Gfs trended towards nam with 500mb setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Weenies in Jersey looking for bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It is east as in it's about to hit the UKMET in London . The UG rule... lock it up. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Basically, the nam and GFS switched sides for the second straight run. The models still are struggling to find the solution. I long for last year, not for the snow because forecasts were so much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NY Board about to go into full panic mode cause they went from 12 to 18 on the NAM to 3 to 6 on the GFS. Still, for us, I think the overall trends are encouraging we will at least get accumulating snow -- which wasn't such a sure thing earlier - which means they should be more than happy at this point up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UKMET is well off the coast even misses NE for the most part here's 48 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.