ThePhotoGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 do u have a link? www.nws.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is not the same deal as dec 25 unless you live southwest of the city, This has a stronger 500 trough with it earlier than that storm did. Still it's a miller b type storm which are tricky but it's not going to be a whiff (famous last words). Wes, didn't you say after the Dec. 26 storm, which I thought you handled well despite the criticism, that you wish you had put more weight on the NAM. Does that mean you will again this time assuming it doesn't major flip tomorrow morning, which is quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's saying most of the QPF falls after 48hrs and at hr. 48 decent snow is falling here. Ok great, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the nam is probably just too gung ho and overdone with precip in the mid-atl. i think the run was good either way... it's just beyond 'funny' to see the 6 hr swings from some at this point. Yewah, I wouldn't change any forecast yet. The nam has a tendency to overdo qpf at times. If the euro has similar amounts tonight, then I'd bump up amounts a little. It will be interesting to see whether the gfs now jumps back to the nam solution. I hadn't planned on staying up but probably will now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Most recent.... Event:Civil Emergency MessageAlert:THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE PERRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. ALL ROADS IN PERRY COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED FOR ALL BUT EMERGENCY TRAFFIC FROM 6 PM SUNDAY...THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY...OR UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ALL COUNTY OFFICES AND AGENCIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.Instructions:Target Area:Perry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yewah, I wouldn't change any forecast yet. The nam has a tendency to overdo qpf at times. If the euro has similar amounts tonight, then I'd bump up amounts a little. It will be interesting to see whether the gfs now jumps back to the nam solution. I hadn't planned on staying up but probably will now. Euro had same exact qpf as nam I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 2" has already fallen in ATL in the last hour....weather channel people going bonkers on the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM To my untrained eye, the primary is still too far north and the secondary is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wes, didn't you say after the Dec. 26 storm, which I thought you handled well despite the criticism, that you wish you had put more weight on the NAM. Does that mean you will again this time assuming it doesn't major flip tomorrow morning, which is quite possible. Probably not if it is on its own since the euro qpf verifies/ scores better and the nam tends to have a high bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is not the same deal as dec 25 unless you live southwest of the city, This has a stronger 500 trough with it earlier than that storm did. Still it's a miller b type storm which are tricky but it's not going to be a whiff (famous last words). I don't think it's going to be a whiff either. I just have to admit that I haven't been that impressed with LWX's forecasts since moving here. They seem to do a lot of "nowcasting", which I think takes away from their credibility. Sorry if that's hurtful to some (I don't know if any people on here are mets @ Sterling), but like i said, I haven't been impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LWX now gives us 100% chance of snow. Kiss of death. It will def be pcloudy. I actually do think we'll see nothing appreciable. This QPF signature resembles many total whiffs of the past. You can usually shift the contours 50 miles north and east in these cases to get the final solution. And that puts the snowhole pretty close to the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kiss of death. It will def be pcloudy. I actually do think we'll see nothing appreciable. This QPF signature resembles many total whiffs of the past. You can usually shift the contours 50 miles north and east in these cases to get the final solution. And that puts the snowhole pretty close to the DC area. You always think we will get nothing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yewah, I wouldn't change any forecast yet. The nam has a tendency to overdo qpf at times. If the euro has similar amounts tonight, then I'd bump up amounts a little. It will be interesting to see whether the gfs now jumps back to the nam solution. I hadn't planned on staying up but probably will now. i like the moves of the run but i dont believe the solution entirely. at this point i'd probably lean harder toward the euro just because it sems things are trying to back it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro had same exact qpf as nam I think But I want to see it hold serve. Until then, why change. It's better not to waffle every model run. Am I encouraged, sure though I still think the nam solution is about as good as we can do given the placement of the upper low. If you look at 850mbs, note how quickly another low pops up along the coast at around our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kiss of death. It will def be pcloudy. I actually do think we'll see nothing appreciable. In your backyard, I would agree since you're west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think it's going to be a whiff either. I just have to admit that I haven't been that impressed with LWX's forecasts since moving here. They seem to do a lot of "nowcasting", which I think takes away from their credibility. Sorry if that's hurtful to some (I don't know if any people on here are mets @ Sterling), but like i said, I haven't been impressed. Actually last year they did a pretty commendable job in my opinion with the big storms. Watches and warnings issued well in advance. I think it was only the Jan. 30 "surprise" event that really burned them. But then again, the storms last year were a lot better handled by the models, a lot better signal compared to the fine tightrope walk we've had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think it's going to be a whiff either. I just have to admit that I haven't been that impressed with LWX's forecasts since moving here. They seem to do a lot of "nowcasting", which I think takes away from their credibility. Sorry if that's hurtful to some (I don't know if any people on here are mets @ Sterling), but like i said, I haven't been impressed. we live in a pretty difficult area to forecast winter storms especially ones that are or act like miller bs since we are right near the beginning of them pounding snow and are often just too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think it's going to be a whiff either. I just have to admit that I haven't been that impressed with LWX's forecasts since moving here. They seem to do a lot of "nowcasting", which I think takes away from their credibility. Sorry if that's hurtful to some (I don't know if any people on here are mets @ Sterling), but like i said, I haven't been impressed. I will defend them a little. I moved here in Aug. '09, lsu, from Memphis, and they were really good with the three big ones last year, and embraced the higher amounts in their forecast and stuck their necks out with the calls. I have a hard time blaming them for 12/26, they missed, but it's not like they were dealing with an easily predictable system. And, given the travel day for folks, better to warn and be wrong than not warn and be wrong, in my view. This will be another nasty system for them to guess at, given that it is a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 But I want to see it hold serve. Until then, why change. It's better not to waffle every model run. Am I encouraged, sure though I still think the nam solution is about as good as we can do given the placement of the upper low. If you look at 850mbs, note how quickly another low pops up along the coast at around our latitude. the nam has more qpf than the euro especially to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think it's going to be a whiff either. I just have to admit that I haven't been that impressed with LWX's forecasts since moving here. They seem to do a lot of "nowcasting", which I think takes away from their credibility. Sorry if that's hurtful to some (I don't know if any people on here are mets @ Sterling), but like i said, I haven't been impressed. They have been good in big events, even a step ahead of others I think. The smaller ones causes them more trouble. In part, i imagine, its pretty hard to give a forecast where you have to decide will it be a dusting or 3. Or a dusting in downtown DC while 1 in Alexandria and 4 in Rockville. I think they only time i can recall they were really behind the curve, is when they failed to put up a WSW until 4 inches fell in late January when that Richmond storm came farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 30 ric was 0c at 18z now -4c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS appears to be making the same moves as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Other than continually bumping the totals up as time went by, I agree on the storms last year. I am namely talking about a lot of the summer storms. Numerous times we were sitting at 20 or 30% pops, then they were raised to 80-90% when the radar started to light up. Just my opinion, and you know what they say about opinions... Getting a little OT here but you NEVER forecast 80-90 pops when scattered storms are forecast. Summer storms impact generally small "swaths" of areas. 80-90 percent pops are reserved for widespread and pretty certain events. Not a fair "strike" against them IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Other than continually bumping the totals up as time went by, I agree on the storms last year. I am namely talking about a lot of the summer storms. Numerous times we were sitting at 20 or 30% pops, then they were raised to 80-90% when the radar started to light up. Just my opinion, and you know what they say about opinions... Take your ridiculous rant to another thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS looks colder? But I could just be Nyquil trippin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW this look better to me S and coastal looks to get going sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hope that 850 Low moves due east http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 agree I hope that 850 Low moves due east http://www.nco.ncep....fs_850_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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