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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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To Ian's post, NAM showed gobs of QPF this morning as well. :)

500 similar to 12z, smidge south.. see if it gets any support. from snow hole and suicide causer to leader of the qpf pack in one run. yeah but on dec 26 it did well.. figuring out the cutoff to the west more than anything, and this is a different set up.

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I know........I'd feel better and less nervous if we were in the 8"+ zone.

But this is exactly what some Miller B's do, check out the cutoff in Feb 1978.

Well as long as the sharp cutoff extends to the west of Leesburg's house but the east of Ji's house i will be thrilled :whistle: .

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the nam is probably just too gung ho and overdone with precip in the mid-atl. i think the run was good either way... it's just beyond 'funny' to see the 6 hr swings from some at this point.

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... and their storm total snowfall map gives us 3". On Dec 25 they were forecasting 6-10" for DC. Do I trust anything they say right now? Nope.

This is not the same deal as dec 25 unless you live southwest of the city, This has a stronger 500 trough with it earlier than that storm did. Still it's a miller b type storm which are tricky but it's not going to be a whiff (famous last words).

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do u have a link?

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ALZ025&warncounty=ALC117&firewxzone=ALZ025&local_place1=Westover+AL&product1=Civil+Emergency+Message

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

823 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF VARIOUS

COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ROADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE

BECOMING TREACHEROUS OR IMPASSABLE. COUNTY AND SOME LOCAL ROADS

HAVE EITHER BEEN CLOSED...OR TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED FOR ALL BUT

EMERGENCY TRAVEL IN PICKENS...GREEN...HALE...BIBB...DALLAS...

AUTUAGA...PIKE...BULLOCK...SHELBY...BLOUNT...ST. CLAIR...

TALLADEGA...ETOWAH...CALHOUN...CLEBURN...AND CLAY COUNTIES.

STAY OFF AREA ROADWAYS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE ROADS ARE

REOPENED. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR EMERGENCY

MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

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:yikes:

It is pretty funny to read them though....:lol:

It's no joke, really. Could be a very serious situation anywhere when you're talking pretty significant icing. I experienced an ice storm down south (Atlanta), and it's seriously not fun, especially if you've got people who might actually think they can drive in it. Not to mention the possible/likely power outages.

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