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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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the nam is wrong but it's nice to see either way

In a year of model mayhem, it's hard to get bearings. NAM led the way to the abyss for the area on the 12/26 storm, if I remember right. Doesn't mean it leads the way to goodness this time around, I suppose, but at least there is support for getting to the 4 inch or so level from the Euro. I am guessing GFS will still tell us to go pound sand in an hour.

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Can somebody post how ILG looks? I'd say close to 1"......won't believe it though until I see it. Although the Euro had some nice qpf numbers today and it generally seems to always be on the light side.

Would like to see a 75 mile shift further south with the low to get everybody really in the game.

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In a year of model mayhem, it's hard to get bearings. NAM led the way to the abyss for the area on the 12/26 storm, if I remember right. Doesn't mean it leads the way to goodness this time around, I suppose, but at least there is support for getting to the 4 inch or so level from the Euro. I am guessing GFS will still tell us to go pound sand in an hour.

it was DR. NO the whole time and was correct

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In a year of model mayhem, it's hard to get bearings. NAM led the way to the abyss for the area on the 12/26 storm, if I remember right. Doesn't mean it leads the way to goodness this time around, I suppose, but at least there is support for getting to the 4 inch or so level from the Euro. I am guessing GFS will still tell us to go pound sand in an hour.

NAM often overdoes QPF at this range. I think that is all Ian means. What this run does do is say the Euro dropping .30 in DC has some support. GFS will be lighter, I promise.

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Can somebody post how ILG looks? I'd say close to 1"......won't believe it though until I see it. Although the Euro had some nice qpf numbers today and it generally seems to always be on the light side.

Would like to see a 75 mile shift further south with the low to get everybody really in the game.

.86" through 60 and my source is stuck at 60 hrs

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