usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good lord. At least in terms of POP. I think Ian is also on the bullish side. We've all learned to be pretty conservative most times for this area. Last year I was pretty bullish on the Dec and feb 5th threat. At least I thought I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does anyone have the euro precip total for kilg? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good lord. it's a depressing group if you're a snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm just goofing off Wes...it's how we used to have fun here when storms did us no good. I'm ready for whatever falls. Good attitude. I'll probably be back in a couple of hours to see what the nam and gfs turn on the 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey...I'm an editor!! Actually, I checked and the it does not say 60% of 1-3. It says 60% chance of 1" or more which included the 20% chance of more than 4 inched. The probabilities are not mine alone, it's a consensus. I tend to be on the bullish side of the gang. The editors who have dealt more with the public, tend to be more conservative. When you bust high, you get crushed more than when you bust low. My own feeling is you'll see snow but I doubt it will be in the 4 or 5 inch range. That was why I commented to Ji plus he sounded vaguely like the guy on CWG that didn't like us having a large range with the last storm. Damnit, Wes! That's what I get for glazing over an article. Sunday needs to end... like now. My mind's been thrown off all weekend (not to say that it has affected my snowfall forecast ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least in terms of POP. I think Ian is also on the bullish side. We've all learned to be pretty conservative most times for this area. Last year I was pretty bullish on the Dec and feb 5th threat. At least I thought I was. i still dont completely understand POP so i sorta make them up though you previously admitted that's how it's done. they are conservative as a whole which i think is good in general though last yr we were upping totals through the end with every storm... 9 out of 10 seasons that's not the case i guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does anyone have the euro precip total for kilg? Thx .46" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any word on the 15z SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any word on the 15z SREF's? a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18Z NAM at 24 hrs shows heights a little lower on east coast and western Trough a hair further south I think we want heights lower on the coast as it may indicate the trough comes at us further south I don't think we have to worry about the slp not coming north on us as well so higher heights may not be better maybe I'm wrong, just my weenie mind at work while the Ravens are kickin' bootay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Out to 30, the midwest stuff is definately going to be further south this run, but I don't know if that means a further-east/weaker storm vs. an earlier phase closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So what are we setting as the benchmark for "good"? .5 QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Out to 30, the midwest stuff is definately going to be further south this run, but I don't know if that means a further-east/weaker storm vs. an earlier phase closer to the coast. agree on both points speaking of points, don't the Ravens have more points against KC right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So what are we setting as the benchmark for "good"? .5 QPF? I would be very happy with that....and equally shocked IF it ultimately verifies no matter what the models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at 30 hrs, radar returns are much more anemic out in the MW while better in the SE again, a positive sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So what are we setting as the benchmark for "good"? .5 QPF? 0.5" would be great. 0.35" would be good. 0.2" would be somewhat disappointing. 0.1" or less would be winter '10/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 42 hrs has the slp a little further east off SC/NC coast prefer to see it tucked in as far west as possible, but that might be in response to the 5H changes maybe we do want those heights rising on the coast from here on out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 on 2nd viewing, 42 hrs sucks vs. 12z because precip is further east in VA why do I do this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 42 hrs has the slp a little further east off SC/NC coast prefer to see it tucked in as far west as possible, but that might be in response to the 5H changes maybe we do want those heights rising on the coast from here on out! Hook and crook coming on the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 48 hrs looks like, dare I say, the strung out GFS look still time though....just not much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This may as well be known as the Winter of the Lamb since everything is sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This may as well be known as the Winter of the Lamb since everything is sheared. looking at 48hrs, it will definitely be east, probably too far east for us but that's a hunch looking at things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looking at 48hrs, it will definitely be east, probably too far east for us but that's a hunch looking at things actually, looks to capture I think I'll shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yep, there's a capture of sorts with good uvv's over NVA and central MDat 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 actually, looks to capture I think I'll shut up Yeah from 48 to 54 go boom...funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is a very good run for us... starts the bombing east of the capes. A couple more (couple mile) nudges south and we'll at least be looking at the 1-3/2-4 amts. We want to be just east of the X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah from 48 to 54 go boom...funny d@mn slp, this is the farthest east any model has depicted it 50-75 miles further west would be ideal maybe it will correct back west next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yep, there's a capture of sorts with good uvv's over NVA and central MDat 54 hrs You've taken the bait---now prepare to be reeled in. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I still think it will show ots further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This water vapor loop certainly looks good. I am feeling better about at least not getting shut out after watching that loop. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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