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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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You're not afraid we'll lose a good bit of qpf to saturation?

Right now my call is 1-3. I'm not sure how sophisticated the euro cloud physics scheme is because some of the more sophisticated schemes take evaporation into account. Now the snow that occurs during daytime, if snowfall rates are light it would keep accumulations down.

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I just checked Euro MOS and BOS gets exactly 1"qpf and NYC just under

w/decent ratios, however, 18" is doable

probably elevation? banding maybe.. this looks to be moving faster than dec 26 so maybe remove the + ;)

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Right now my call is 1-3. I'm not sure how sophisticated the euro cloud physics scheme is because some of the more sophisticated schemes take evaporation into account. Now the snow that occurs during daytime, if snowfall rates are light it would keep accumulations down.

On the CWG website, will you remind people that there is no need to ransack the Grocery stores over this.

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Wes/CWG:

Our best guess right now for snowfall from Tuesday and Tuesday night's storm is probably in the 1-3" or 2-4" range with an outside chance of getting 4" or more. The heaviest amounts will probably be north and east of the city.

http://voices.washin...looks_real.html

40% chance of zippo....yikes :yikes:

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Sorry leesburg

I will be anxious to compare totals with those to the East after all is said and done.....you know like the inch we got yesterday morning when the models weren't showing much while the models and "forecasters" were calling for 2-4 in Baltimore....I forget how much did they get?

Oh yeah that clipper in December when the models showed nothing for here....oh wait we got 2"...that's right.

Yes...I am in full defend my home mode now. I hope it rains in DC

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Yes I know 60% 1-3 and 20% 4" leaves 20% but Wes' words not mine are 40% screw job over at well the other place.

Actually, I dodn't put he 20%. I just agree to the 60% and pushed for that high. I think it should have been 60 percent chance of more than 1 inch, 20 for more than 4. That part of the 60%. I'll got back and look at it and ask Dan to change it.

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Yes I know 60% 1-3 and 20% 4" leaves 20% but Wes' words not mine are 40% screw job over at well the other place.

Actually, I checked and the it does not say 60% of 1-3. It says 60% chance of 1" or more which included the 20% chance of more than 4 inched. The probabilities are not mine alone, it's a consensus. I tend to be on the bullish side of the gang. The editors who have dealt more with the public, tend to be more conservative. When you bust high, you get crushed more than when you bust low. My own feeling is you'll see snow but I doubt it will be in the 4 or 5 inch range. That was why I commented to Ji plus he sounded vaguely like the guy on CWG that didn't like us having a large range with the last storm.

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Actually, I checked and the it does not say 60% of 1-3. It says 60% chance of 1" or more which included the 20% chance of more than 4 inched. The probabilities are not mine alone, it's a consensus. I tend to be on the bullish side of the gang. The editors who have dealt more with the public, tend to be more conservative. When you bust high, you get crushed more than when you bust low. My own feeling is you'll see snow but I doubt it will be in the 4 or 5 inch range. That was why I commented to Ji plus he sounded vaguely like the guy on CWG that didn't like us having a large range with the last storm.

Good lord.

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Actually, I checked and the if does not say 60% of 1-3. It says 60% chance of 1" or more which included the 20% chance of more than 4 inched. The probabilities are not mine alone, it's a consensus. I tend to be on the bullish side of the gang. The editors who have dealt more with the public, tend to be more conservative. When you bust high, you get crushed more than when you bust low. My won feeling is you'll see snow but I doubt it will be in the 4 or 5 inch range. That was why I commented to Ji plus he sounded vaguely like the guy on CWG that didn't like us having a large range with the last storm.

I'm just goofing off Wes...it's how we used to have fun here when storms did us no good. I'm ready for whatever falls.

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