Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 height of the storm ric gets to ~0c 850 right over us, dc -3c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That's good and supports bumping the pops some. I think we're going with 60% chance of an inch or more and 1-3 for the most likely amounts. euro makes me hesitant to drop to 1-3 areawide but for a public forecast it's probably better to go up than down. plus daytime snow miht have trouble..tho looks mostly overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 crushes coastal nj nyc sw ct SNE buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DCA-.34" BWI-.35" IAD-.29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SNE buried im glad.. they were so burned last yr, this is great news for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Whenever the words further West are mentioned I feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 myn-.37 apg-.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DCA-.34" BWI-.35" IAD-.29" Fine with me. Now verify dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think we've taken positive steps this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 lets hope the next 3 euro runs increase our qpf back to .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For snow? or a big snow? If you are referring to more than 4i inches I agree. If you think we cna't get an inch, then I disagree. Correct, I should have specified for "significant" snow. We could get 1-2" maybe 3 with the setup currently. I am talking about what we need if we want something of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DCA-.34" BWI-.35" IAD-.29" Sounds good for a 3-5" event based on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 im glad.. they were so burned last yr, this is great news for everyone really, the only thing that bugs me about NE posters is that they cried and cried how they got screwed last year and BOS still got close to 40" they still have no clue what a real screwing is like (how we get screwed w/1-2" for the season) and they think we whine too much not all, but many of the real weenies are, for lack of a better word, bigger pu$$ie$ than anyone on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think we've taken positive steps this morning. yep, only 10 more steps to go on this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think we've taken positive steps this morning. Seems like the track remained similar but qpf field expanded and increased some....euro did this last year as well closer to the events. This is probably close to what to expect but I would think there may be some room for a tad more improvement for the precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Correct, I should have specified for "significant" snow. We could get 1-2" maybe 3 with the setup currently. I am talking about what we need if we want something of significance. 2 things. One, a 3 inch snow is significant this year. Two, do you foresee any possibilities or practical ways that backside energy can do the things you would like to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro makes me hesitant to drop to 1-3 areawide but for a public forecast it's probably better to go up than down. plus daytime snow miht have trouble..tho looks mostly overnight We've already done that but put some wiggle room in. I don't think this is more than a 10 or 11-1 ratio event so even the euro probably only gives us around 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RIC, CHO, LYH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 really, the only thing that bugs me about NE posters is that they cried and cried how they got screwed last year and BOS still got close to 40" they still have no clue what a real screwing is like (how we get screwed w/1-2" for the season) and they think we whine too much not all, but many of the real weenies are, for lack of a better word, bigger ******* than anyone on this board When they see the Mid-Atlantic get 4 feet of snow in the span of 5 days, while they get nothing more than an inch or two of slop in the same period, they WILL get mad. Not to mention seeing NYC get 20" later that month while they get heavy rain and floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like 3-6 is a good bet for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .52" at DOV God, I've grown to hate that town in the past 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 really, the only thing that bugs me about NE posters is that they cried and cried how they got screwed last year and BOS still got close to 40" they still have no clue what a real screwing is like (how we get screwed w/1-2" for the season) and they think we whine too much not all, but many of the real weenies are, for lack of a better word, bigger pu$ie$ than anyone on this board The time frame that destroys up there is still in the potential waffle zone...still time for things to change up there...maybe for the better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We've already done that but put some wiggle room in. I don't think this is more than a 10 or 11-1 ratio event so even the euro probably only gives us around 4. You're not afraid we'll lose a good bit of qpf to saturation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We've already done that but put some wiggle room in. I don't think this is more than a 10 or 11-1 ratio event so even the euro probably only gives us around 4. yeah that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 When they see the Mid-Atlantic get 4 feet of snow in the span of 5 days, while they get nothing more than an inch or two of slop in the same period, they WILL get mad. Not to mention seeing NYC get 20" later that month while they get heavy rain and floods. why should they get mad?? most of the time they get it one way or another???? One winter in the last 100 and we get a lot, and they get mad?? every damn clipper that misses us gets them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The time frame that destroys up there is still in the potential waffle zone...still time for things to change up there...maybe for the better or worse no I agree 100% BOS was supposed to get 2-4" overnight based on computer runs at the end of the day yesterday and I doubt they saw an inch the computers have been horrible all winter, but at least the surrounding areas have seen snow even with the lousy forecasts, unlike us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You're not afraid we'll lose a good bit of qpf to saturation? the models show what hits the ground i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like 3-6 is a good bet for Baltimore. werent you saying we were getting nothing last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 2 things. One, a 3 inch snow is significant this year. Two, do you foresee any possibilities or practical ways that backside energy can do the things you would like to see? I do not change my idea of what a significant storm is based on the winter. Sure it could happen, the models just have to be wrong with the track of the H5 low by about 100 miles. From 60 hours out still that is not impossible. Until today they were trending in the wrong direction with that. 12z put a halt to that but still we need it to shift back again to a track over DC not central PA. It could happen but unfortunately the reason so many are throwing in the towel on that idea and you do not see more waiting to see that adjustment is the normal model error on H5 lows is to be too far south, not north. This makes a shift back south less likely. Not impossible, just unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 no I agree 100% BOS was supposed to get 2-4" overnight based on computer runs at the end of the day yesterday and I doubt they saw an inch the computers have been horrible all winter, but at least the surrounding areas have seen snow even with the lousy forecasts, unlike us someone nyc to bos will get 18+.. book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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