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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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I'm thinking now that we may want the southern system to stay as far south as possible to keep the baroclinic zone further south on which the new coastal can form. Maybe it doesn't matter and its all dependent upon the trough in the OV heading east. I don't know. Any mets have the answer?

I don't know what we need either. I just hope whatever it is, it happens. If you had been asleep for a week and woke up and saw the national radar and the water vapor loop, wouldn't you think we would have been golden? It just looks like it would be great.

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sweet, only because its shifting back in our favor like the NAM, though I would be happy with that verifying for sure

that's 4-6"

One thing about that map is that the colors don't line up with what we are used to. That's still only in and around 0.25 inches in our area.

Well, maybe better for you. I don't know where you are. It's not much for me though.

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I don't know what we need either. I just hope whatever it is, it happens. If you had been asleep for a week and woke up and saw the national radar and the water vapor loop, wouldn't you think we would have been golden? It just looks like it would be great.

I know I sound like a broken record but what we need is the H5/H7 energy from the west to track further south. The southern wave is going to wash out, the PV isnt out of the way yet for that to be able to amplify. The amplification will happen with the western trough energy as it swings east. The surface will respond to what that is doing, not the other way around. The track of the SLP along the coast won't matter at all if the energy is not there to support precipitation at the upper levels. Look at the UKMET, has a good surface SLP but its completely dry for us. The inverted trough comes though dry. The reason is it does not develop the OH valley low, but there is no mechanism for precip with the coastal because there is no upper level support, thats back with the H5/H7 low over Ohio. This is really simple, if that energy tracks further south we have a shot. If it does not, we do not.

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.25" pushed back toward blue ridge in dc area compared to right over dc last run.. .5" still near coastline.. quite similar maybe a fe hundredths increase most places?

That's good and supports bumping the pops some. I think we're going with 60% chance of an inch or more and 1-3 for the most likely amounts.

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I know I sound like a broken record but what we need is the H5/H7 energy from the west to track further south. The southern wave is going to wash out, the PV isnt out of the way yet for that to be able to amplify. The amplification will happen with the western trough energy as it swings east. The surface will respond to what that is doing, not the other way around. The track of the SLP along the coast won't matter at all if the energy is not there to support precipitation at the upper levels. Look at the UKMET, has a good surface SLP but its completely dry for us. The inverted trough comes though dry. The reason is it does not develop the OH valley low, but there is no mechanism for precip with the coastal because there is no upper level support, thats back with the H5/H7 low over Ohio. This is really simple, if that energy tracks further south we have a shot. If it does not, we do not.

For snow? or a big snow? If you are referring to more than 4i inches I agree. If you think we cna't get an inch, then I disagree.

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