Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Mentioned this in the model thread in the main forum. For whatever it's worth, it's kind of interesting the 12Z GFS is apparently going back to a much colder-looking solution in the medium to longer range, which it had been backing off from on many cycles lately. Keeps a +PNA and looks like it re-generates blocking/-NAO. Not saying it's right, and it could just be one glitch from an overall trend, but whatever. Also, it's still trying to hint at doing something interesting after whatever front passes through next weekend, something it's been hinting at several times now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS also goes above 0 at 850 for several hours down at Richmond during the precip..... gets close here down to -1 before quickly crashing but precip just about over then. General 1-3 if 10-1 ratios for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW the GFS long range is stinking cold....is that stuff ever coming? Boston .74 NYC .72 Two minds with but a single thought (see my post right after yours)!! Strange how it's apparently going back to that at least for this one cycle, after it has been lifting the flow quite a bit in many of its runs lately. Personally, I hope going back to a colder, more amplified solution is correct...don't much care for the rather bland/blah/warmish look it's had several times lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's near diagram giving the 09Z SREF precip amounts and ptype through the event for all the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GGEM weakening the OH valley low wont matter because it still tracks the H5 and H7 energy through Ohio and PA. Even if there is no OH valley low, the inverted trough between the coastal and the western trough is dead until the H5 energy from out west catches up. That NEEDS to be in WV not Ohio. The H7 low has to cross over DC or else there is no mechanism to create heavy precip. Even without the OH valley low the coatal will just slide bye dry then bomb out too late once the western energy catches up. Changes in the SLP tracks wont help us at all. Our problems are at H5/H7 not the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z ens mean at 36 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Last yr was a once a century winter well understood. But, frankly, isn't this also turning into a once in century type winter as well where Norfolk and Charlotte, hell maybe even Atlanta by Tuesday, have more snow than DC to south while at the same time Philly and New York far exceed their seasonal averages as well to the north. Has this ever happened before quite like this where the Baltimore-DC end up heading into February some of the lowest seasonal averages anywhere north of the Panhandle of Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 St Mary's county and maybe KG county may even have mixing issues if the NAM (or something like it) verifies. Last night's 00z NAM at PAX NAS had 4.7°C at 4200 ft with a sfc temp of -1°C I think they will have mixing issues, sleet an or freezing rain. This run is colder for Pax river but still gets them above freezing but more in the sleet range then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GGEM weakening the OH valley low wont matter because it still tracks the H5 and H7 energy through Ohio and PA. Even if there is no OH valley low, the inverted trough between the coastal and the western trough is dead until the H5 energy from out west catches up. That NEEDS to be in WV not Ohio. The H7 low has to cross over DC or else there is no mechanism to create heavy precip. Even without the OH valley low the coatal will just slide bye dry then bomb out too late once the western energy catches up. Changes in the SLP tracks wont help us at all. Our problems are at H5/H7 not the surface. Good points. So basically, for this area, we're going to need a MIIIIRACLE! Did somebody say Miracle? (Cue that horse from "History of the World, Part I)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 midlo snow maker, can you post ur comments on ensemble or more pics? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 midlo snow maker, can you post ur comments on ensemble or more pics? thanks They are OK. .25-.50 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey Phineas, MTN gets .45" on the NAM and APG gets .53! and to correct the record (not directed to Phin but for info of Bd), BWI technically gets .37" (.02 falls at the very start of the 6 hrs after when all 3 airports get the bulk of the precip-ending 66hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 is the gefs colder for RIC, as in all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 is the gefs colder for RIC, as in all snow? no but not much precip falls there per GFS anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey Phineas, MTN gets .45" on the NAM and APG gets .53! and to correct the record (not directed to Phin but for info of Bd), BWI technically gets .37" (.02 falls at the very start of the 6 hrs after when all 3 airports get the bulk of the precip-ending 66hrs) That is more than I expected, for sure. What about GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is more than I expected, for sure. What about GFS? I checked BWI and it was .21" I think I'll look but I doubt its much more as the gradient isn't as sharp as on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I checked BWI and it was .21" I think I'll look but I doubt its much more as the gradient isn't as sharp as on the NAM Yeah, I figured about .25 looking at the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS MTS-.26" APG-.28" imo, once the models start getting into the 20"s of hundredths of an inch is when I think we get skunked based on what has happened the last 2 weeks none of those qpf predictions have yielded more than a coating here its NAM or nothing, and that's a scary thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 is the gefs colder for RIC, as in all snow? they are a tad colder not much still going to be a good round of sleet per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS MTS-.26" APG-.28" imo, once the models start getting into the 20"s of hundredths of an inch is when I think we get skunked based on what has happened the last 2 weeks none of those qpf predictions have yielded more than a coating here its NAM or nothing, and that's a scary thought I am not going to buy the NAM QPF for a while. Would be nice if the Euro dropped .3 or .4 on us. It is best on precip at this range and would give us some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Henry is due for a win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Call me conservative....but I'm 100% OK with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here was the 6Z run of the GFS ensembles covering same period as 12Z map above-better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some last minute adjustments happening now. We might just sneak into this with 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here was the 6Z run of the GFS ensembles covering same period as 12Z map above-better Look at the map in the 6z just before this one. The 12z isn't better. Not saying that it matters, don't think we'll really know until tonight. I'll be more than happy with a 2 or 3 inch snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm thinking now that we may want the southern system to stay as far south as possible to keep the baroclinic zone further south on which the new coastal can form. Maybe it doesn't matter and its all dependent upon the trough in the OV heading east. I don't know. Any mets have the answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12 euro hr 18 low is 4 mb deep on he tip of la. 1008 dallas gets destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ji's favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Look at the map in the 6z just before this one. The 12z isn't better. Not saying that it matters, don't think we'll really know until tonight. I'll be more than happy with a 2 or 3 inch snow. yeah, actually you can't get the hours to match up perfect because its a 6 hr diff and ens forecasts only come out every 12 I went 12 hours forward I guess I should have realized that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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