aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interesting run. NAM dumps about .40 up here I think. A few hours earlier could give Baltimore 6-8. At the very least you won't be far from a real nice dumping....still time for you to get in on it. Good luck bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interesting run. NAM dumps about .40 up here I think. A few hours earlier could give Baltimore 6-8. i think you are about to be looking real good the time the mid day runs are done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would have to imagine that timing and placement is pretty tricky to pinpoint and 100 miles in either direction is not an impossible task. Certainly we have a top end to this for us down here but I don't think that top end has been completely determined yet. I shall remain vigilant I think up to 4 inches sounds reasonable for me near BWI. But like you said, any movement west gives us more, east gives us less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The increased speed is realistic, and the NAM was able to correct itself from its 06z phase shift problem where the height field aloft is too far W (too slow). It is closer on timing wrt the GFS in the height field with this run. How does it compare to last night's euro. I read all the gnashing of teeth from last night's run so I figured the euro was not that great but haven't seen the qpf. The big changes to the nam show how nasty the pattern is for getting consistent model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least LWX is mentioning both possibilities and not just one or the other. Yeah, that was a pretty balanced and thoughtful discussion I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How does it compare to last night's euro. I read all the gnashing of teeth from last night's run so I figured the euro was not that great but haven't seen the qpf. The big changes to the nam show how nasty the pattern is for getting consistent model guidance. QPF was BWI- .31 DCA i think was .28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didn't realize how close I was to Phin - I always assumed he was somewhere up near the PA border or something. Points N and E of Baltimore def. look to be in the best shape for this...whether that ends up being 2 inches or 8 inches... I personally would be thrilled with 4 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 rgem closed at 24 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just woke up and haven't paged back, but that cold front next weekend leaves a lot of energy hanging back down south that comes up in pieces per 6Z GFS. Here's the caboose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How does it compare to last night's euro. I read all the gnashing of teeth from last night's run so I figured the euro was not that great but haven't seen the qpf. The big changes to the nam show how nasty the pattern is for getting consistent model guidance. Yeah the ECM op is the last global to hold steady with a flat and weak shortwave. The GFS was flat and weak too then shifted big with the 0Z run, but its farther N overall than the current NAM. The latest NAM is faster than the 6Z, and since it is farther S, it captures the coastal earlier and deepens it faster with the main shortwave passing right over the area. ECM operational on the right is much weaker than its ensemble mean with the mean depicting a much stronger mid level wave and features a closed 534 dm countour. ECM will likely follow suit, but it should be noted the NAM is the farthest S of all guidance. ECM is much farther N and would likely put DC/BA right in the screwzone since it captures that coastal slower with lighter qpf overall. I only have access to 24 hr ECM with no qpf so I can't say exactly, but it will be interesting to see if the global guidance shifts S like the NAM did--and if the ECM op trends stronger with the primary wave aloft like its own ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didn't realize how close I was to Phin - I always assumed he was somewhere up near the PA border or something. Points N and E of Baltimore def. look to be in the best shape for this...whether that ends up being 2 inches or 8 inches... I personally would be thrilled with 4 at this point. that is wsw criterior correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QPF was BWI- .31 DCA i think was .28 Honestly surprised folks were so pissed about that. Very few folks have suggested this storm threat would exceed 2-5" for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Total fantasy qpf for 6Z fantasy (Day 9-11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just woke up and haven't paged back, but that cold front next weekend leaves a lot of energy hanging back down south that comes up in pieces per 6Z GFS. Here's the caboose Yes, the GFS has been toying with that idea (and with our minds? HA!) now and again when that cold front goes through. It's shown it a few times, but other times it's just a frontal passage with nothing but maybe line of showers before it gets cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Honestly surprised folks were so pissed about that. Very few folks have suggested this storm threat would exceed 2-5" for that area. After last winter people are totally irrational around here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC Day 3 snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Honestly surprised folks were so pissed about that. Very few folks have suggested this storm threat would exceed 2-5" for that area. Sounds about like the new nam. I'd love to get 2-4 inches and think at least now the odds of getting 1-4 are downright good though my editor may want me to tone them down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that is wsw criterior correct?? 6 inches or more would be WSW criteria. 5 or less is usually an advisory You might get a watch if they think you will break 6. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Once again the Shanendoah Valley gets screwed. What happened to the days when being west of the city was a good thing for storms. Just a horribly frustrating year so far. Hey brother...you and I are in the same boat with this but at least the NAM showed a bit of improvement...lets see if there are some trends today and acknowledge the positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC low track prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 6 inches or more would be WSW criteria. 5 or less is usually an advisory You might get a watch if they think you will break 6. . Not in our area it is not, 5" is a WSW in Baltimore and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC Day 3 snow map Hey!!! I like those odds...10% chance of 4"? sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not in our area it is not, 5" is a WSW in Baltimore and DC. that's what I thought!!! doubt it will happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not in our area it is not, 5" is a WSW in Baltimore and DC. YOU ARE CORRECT THIS IS FROM STERLING Winter Storm Watch A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as: 1) Over 5 inches of snow (and/or sleet) OR 2) Glaze accumulation (freezing rain) of 1/4 inch or more OR 3) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. OR 4) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that's what I thought!!! doubt it will happen though. Me either, but i would be thrilled with a 3"-5" inch snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For LWX their winter storm watch criteria is (for those who have asked): A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as: 1) Over 5 inches of snow (and/or sleet) OR 2) Glaze accumulation (freezing rain) of 1/4 inch or more OR 3) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. OR 4) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didn't realize how close I was to Phin - I always assumed he was somewhere up near the PA border or something. Points N and E of Baltimore def. look to be in the best shape for this...whether that ends up being 2 inches or 8 inches... I personally would be thrilled with 4 at this point. Eastern central Baltimore County. There are a lot of posters here from south of Baltimore around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LWX Watch, Warning, etc, Criteria http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Me either, but i would be thrilled with a 3"-5" inch snow. if we get the max, that will be a period of , at least , mod to heavy snow . That's pretty good snow fall for our area. With it being cold, the snow will stick and driving around here is going to be hazardous.I live in east side of columbia. About 10 miles from bwi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Another 12/26-esque screwing for DC per the NAM - unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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