mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 quit looking at me like that http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_850_066l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM through 66 at JYO is .24 and plenty cold...that is more than 00z and 06z fo sho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 69 low is 16mb deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nyc crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 72 988 south of the eastern side of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Philly is loving this run...and NYC/LI/CT might get wiped off the map... MAN, if we could only dig that northern vort 100 more miles or so...things could get sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Gah! Transfer a little earlier and this would be looking mighty fine. Just not looking like it will happen in time for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not a md winter. This is verifying. Better get used to it. Always next year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well overall a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM will be wrong with the qpf,to our north they get 8-12", but not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have 48 hours to trend south. Nice run guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not a md winter. This is verifying. Better get used to it. Always next year!!! This is dramatically different than 6Z...what makes you think THIS is the final solution? It could get better, and it could get worse for that matter. I would take this right now though...this is 4 inches+ in Baltimore I would suspect. Man...the difference at 500 mb between 78h @ 6Z and 72h @ 12Z is vast. One more move of that magnitude in our favor and we're in warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM through 66 at JYO is .24 and plenty cold...that is more than 00z and 06z fo sho Great ratios. 3-4 inches? I love you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Gah! Transfer a little earlier and this would be looking mighty fine. Just not looking like it will happen in time for us though. 4-6 hrs faster is all we need, or for the southern vort to hold together a little better (which is what I think it did this run actually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have 48 hours to trend south. Nice run guys! I agree. Hoping it's not a hiccup. Whatever the NAM shows now is not likely the final outcome. Keep the trend alive on the 12 Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great ratios. 3-4 inches? I love you not so sure ratios are better than 10:1 850 temps are only around -3C and surface temps are 30-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like we get a brief, several hour period of snow taking the NAM verbatim, maybe a moderate burst even. I think that looks at least marginally better than before. 1-3" or 2-4" might still be reasonable...possibly a little more up toward Baltimore and northeast MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 4-6 hrs faster is all we need, or for the southern vort to hold together a little better (which is what I think it did this run actually) Agreed. However, not to bring up a negative subject again, but this sounds like a similar thing to what we were relegated to hoping for on Dec. 26 this close to the event. But I know what you're saying. It sucks relying on subtleties to pull us through like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have 48 hours to trend south. Nice run guys! agree...I look at this way as far as qpf alone this run was better than 00z and 06z and verbatim this run verifies a 2-4 or 3-6" forecast. Live it love it embrace it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 4-6 hrs faster is all we need, or for the southern vort to hold together a little better (which is what I think it did this run actually) The increased speed is realistic, and the NAM was able to correct itself from its 06z phase shift problem where the height field aloft is too far W (too slow). It is closer on timing wrt the GFS in the height field with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 agree...I look at this way as far as qpf alone this run was better than 00z and 06z and verbatim this run verifies a 2-4 or 3-6" forecast. Live it love it embrace it and just like a woman, she'll break your heart should be a country song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Through 66: IAD: 0.25" DCA: 0.30" BWI: 0.35" These are exact btw...just a coincidence how each airport receives exactly .05" more than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not so sure ratios are better than 10:1 850 temps are only around -3C and surface temps are 30-32 Not here 850's are -4.8 dropping to -8 during the moisture with surface temps around 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 and just like a woman, she'll break your heart should be a country song Reminds me of a joke I heard once: What happens when you play a country song backward? Your truck starts, your wife comes back to you, and your dog lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Reminds me of a joke I heard once: What happens when you play a country song backward? Your truck starts, your wife comes back to you, and your dog lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Our westerly longitude isn't a dealbreaker this time like it was for 12/26....we just need the transfer to go down 75-100 miles further south so we can get in on some banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Philly looks around .84 in about 6-8 hours I think BWI is real close to getting in some real good loving from this...not much south movement on the bombing for them to be real happy. For us back here to the West I'm guessing it needs to bomb out way South and closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AGAIN...THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE IMPACT AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY IN A NON-PHASED FASHION...EVENTUALLY COMBINING INTO ONE INTENSIFIED STORM AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS PHASING OCCURS PAST THE MID ATLANTIC...THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE MAINLY AN ADVISORY SITUATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE PHASING OCCURS SOONER...THEN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL /ASSUMING NO MIXING...WHICH COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MD/. RIGHT NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER IDEA OF PHASING OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT WRITTEN IN STONE GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION SO PLEASE STAY TUNED. SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW TO CONTEND WITH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE MAY ALSO HOLD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. At least LWX is mentioning both possibilities and not just one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interesting run. NAM dumps about .40 up here I think. A few hours earlier could give Baltimore 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least LWX is mentioning both possibilities and not just one or the other. I would have to imagine that timing and placement is pretty tricky to pinpoint and 100 miles in either direction is not an impossible task. Certainly we have a top end to this for us down here but I don't think that top end has been completely determined yet. I shall remain vigilant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.