TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 getting the Low to pop off SE coast at 42 hrs is a move in the right direction imho http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_042l.gif Agreed...an earlier coastal transfer would be just what the doctor ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at 48 hrs, the slp in the OV is elongated at 1020 mb and the one off the coast is down to 1016...that's a big improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I hope so honestly if it isn;t going to snow then get warm and quit costing me money when you think about it, this whole scenario of one model in the long range picking it up, then another model showing huge hit, the Euro climbs on board, then 3 days before Euro follows GFS by jumping ship all we need now to do a formal repeat of 12/26 is to have the GFS come back with a big hit, a couple runs of the Euro jumping back on board, then a last minute fail for whatever reason that's why I'm a big believer in seasonal pattern/trend though I have to admit, after living in the area all my life I have never seen a winter like this where areas so close to us have been rocked and we have been screwed normally, you have to go at least 150 miles as the crow flies and not just 75 I grew up in the ma and live in boston now. My parents had almost 5 feet of snow on the ground last year with those storms getting suppressed in mby by the mega pv. Every year has a location like this, I hope it improves for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 on that 48 hr map, almost looks like the OV elongation is aimed toward the coast??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam is 4mb deeper at hr 51 and a closed contour on the caost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I grew up in the ma and live in boston now. My parents had almost 5 feet of snow on the ground last year with multiple storms getting suppressed by the mega pv. Every year has a location like this, I hope it improves for you all. thanks and good luck up there, we all need it once and a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is getting a little better. Where we end up? We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The models screwed us with the 12/26 system 48 hours out. I still think they maybe doing a reverse screw job inside 48. I am hoping for some major flip flops. They have been putrid for our area so far, and maybe they will continue to be putrid in a reverse manner. Weenie radar, and forecasts for double digit snows to our south and to our north east keep me watching this thing with weenie goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is getting a little better. Where we end up? We'll see I guess. yeah, comparing 5H, it is definitely flatter than 0Z and a bit further south I think we will like this run vs. 0Z and 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam is 4mb deeper at hr 51 and a closed contour on the caost Thanks DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ok so don't laugh but I'm watching the weather channel because I like watching the snow fall even if it is not at my house so I wanted to see how they are preparing down South....anyway they said after viewing some of the latest info that the snow/freezing rain line seems to be around I-20 in Atlanta...below that not so much snow and mostly frozen above that more snow but not crazy until you get up into NE Georgia and far Eastern Tennessee. Seems to me that is more North than previous guesses. Ok you can laugh now A little off topic here, but I lived in Atlanta for about 7 years through about 2000. For any kind of snow/ice event (even minor by standards farther north), it's like it is here in terms of how people react. Everyone stocks up on toilet paper and milk. And no kidding, I noticed the same thing here in DC! Anyhow, while I was there the most snow accumulation I saw was around a couple of inches once or twice. Which for them is a big deal. Farther north more in the north GA mountains, decent snow events are not all that uncommon. But, they can get some serious ice storms in the Atlanta area...I was there for two really bad ones in January 2000. All trees that do not lose any leaves (or needles) in the fall got absolutely shredded, like those magnolias and tall pine trees. It was truly scary just to walk around outside, let alone drive. People may not think of Atlanta as having a lot of hills, but it does, being in the Piedmont area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nams got more juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 54 hrs is a little better than 0Z I don't think we see as big a change as maybe I thought it might show at 42 hrs d@mn 850 low looks ugly to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 @60 looks pretty good .... 1012 low right off hse....light snow up to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this run is gonna look a lot more promising - but I suspect we need that vort to dig south another 100 miles or so and that lead shortwave to keep trending stronger if we want this to work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 54 hrs is a little better than 0Z I don't think we see as big a change as maybe I thought it might show at 42 hrs d@mn 850 low looks ugly to our west 850 was in Southern Ohio at least at 54....light snow around the area then as well....little heavier down by Richmond. Is this an improvement over 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 54 hrs is a little better than 0Z I don't think we see as big a change as maybe I thought it might show at 42 hrs d@mn 850 low looks ugly to our west And I believe therein lies a lot of our problems...(though one can say it's a reflection of 500 mb not being that good, chicken and egg and all that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yep, 60 hrs does look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 850 was in Southern Ohio at least at 54....light snow around the area then as well....little heavier down by Richmond. Is this an improvement over 06z? comparing this run to 0Z, 850 low in better position I wasn't looking at 6Z, which was ugly all the way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 63 low 8mb deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at 60 hrs, 850 low seems to have started the processes of transferring to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 comparing this run to 0Z, 850 low in better position I wasn't looking at 6Z, which was ugly all the way around If that 850 low can end up not too much farther south (KY/TN, perhaps?), we might be in a lot better shape, I'd think. Edit: OK, seeing the 60h plot now with the 850 in eastern OH, maybe more than "not too much farther south"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 63 low 8mb deeper than 0Z or 6Z in either event, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at 60 hrs, 850 low seems to have started the processes of transferring to the coast I think the dryslot in SW Virginia says that is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If that 850 low can end up not too much farther south (KY/TN, perhaps?), we might be in a lot better shape, I'd think. WVA would make a huge diff, but that ain't in the cards the way things look now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 66 low 12 mb deeper than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wow @66....1004 off snj and much improved track.....just a bit too late for the extended good stuff in the dc area, but an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that ain't so bad either http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_300_060l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WVA would make a huge diff, but that ain't in the cards the way things look now True...I think I said that too soon before I saw the 60h 850 chart, with the 850 low in Ohio! Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have a feeling the doom and gloom forecasts of destruction for areas South of Atlanta are in trouble...seems like the t-storms may be robbing this thing of its southern moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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