psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Getting hard to tell how we get screwed each run. Lots of options. the reason there are mutiple solutions but every one screws us now is because the models are all having one thing in common, a bad track of the h5 energy. Some amplify the primary low around that energy in the OH valley, some do not but then slide the coastal OTS but the problem is the same, the H5 energy is tracking further north, and its NOT digging so is not transferring energy to the coastal. As long as the H5 track remains over OH into PA we have no shot. That has to change for any solution to work. The SLP track of the coastal makes no difference as long as the upper support that would cause precip isnt where it needs to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not looking good for adding a lot to my massive 2.5 inch seasonal total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm beginning to think that last winter was much better than this one.... how about that January 17th storm on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 06z GFS holds about the same and says kids maybe sleep in a bit but not too late 06z NAM says kids do your homework Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 06z GFS holds about the same and says kids maybe sleep in a bit but not too late 06z NAM says kids do your homework Yep, looking at the Ensembles now and they look very similar through 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not looking good for adding a lot to my massive 2.5 inch seasonal total. 2.5x more than I've seen in my yard this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 72 Ensemble members for the 06Z look better then the OP. Looks like a lot of them have a better defined low off the coast that's not as strung out to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks like Euro did as expected last night and I won't need to wait for 1/16 to officially call the rest of this winter a bust this winter has 72/73 written all over it, but w/o the warmth at least the Euro rocks ACY again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SNE crushed 1"+ Why, oh why, do you say such things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks like Euro did as expected last night and I won't need to wait for 1/16 to officially call the rest of this winter a bust this winter has 72/73 written all over it, but w/o the warmth at least the Euro rocks ACY again If we can get a week of 60s in January, then the winter won't have been a complete bust. I'd take a week in February, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If we can get a week of 60s in January, then the winter won't have been a complete bust. I'd take a week in February, too. I hope so honestly if it isn;t going to snow then get warm and quit costing me money when you think about it, this whole scenario of one model in the long range picking it up, then another model showing huge hit, the Euro climbs on board, then 3 days before Euro follows GFS by jumping ship all we need now to do a formal repeat of 12/26 is to have the GFS come back with a big hit, a couple runs of the Euro jumping back on board, then a last minute fail for whatever reason that's why I'm a big believer in seasonal pattern/trend though I have to admit, after living in the area all my life I have never seen a winter like this where areas so close to us have been rocked and we have been screwed normally, you have to go at least 150 miles as the crow flies and not just 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I hope so honestly if it isn;t going to snow then get warm and quit costing me money when you think about it, this whole scenario of one model in the long range picking it up, then another model showing huge hit, the Euro climbs on board, then 3 days before Euro follows GFS by jumping ship all we need now to do a formal repeat of 12/26 is to have the GFS come back with a big hit, a couple runs of the Euro jumping back on board, then a last minute fail for whatever reason that's why I'm a big believer in seasonal pattern/trend though I have to admit, after living in the area all my life I have never seen a winter like this where areas so close to us have been rocked and we have been screwed normally, you have to go at least 150 miles as the crow flies and not just 75 So are you going to still follow the models today and tomorrow Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So are you going to still follow the models today and tomorrow Mitch? what weenie won't? (as Barbara Walters would say!) I thought we all knew this is a self-destructive hobby in fact, 9Z SREF's look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what weenie won't? (as Barbara Walters would say!) I thought we all knew this is a self-destructive hobby in fact, 9Z SREF's look better They do. Be nice to see the ind. members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Let the weenie-ism begin. Looks like on Satellite and radar that there is some good STJ action already and a 1004 L. Probably won't mean much for us in 48 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 They do. Be nice to see the ind. members. Which, somehow are already available, have some that look good. Some are awful, but some are not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Fixed. Not looking good for adding a lot to my massive 2.5 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what weenie won't? (as Barbara Walters would say!) I thought we all knew this is a self-destructive hobby in fact, 9Z SREF's look better Yeah I plan on watching as well...now that we know lets just make the best of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 man this looks great i just can't believe we are going to get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 man this looks great i just can't believe we are going to get screwed It's kind of amazing, isn't it? Sigh. I sorta still can't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Until we see how the phasing evolves, my approach is -- if we get 2-3'', I'll claim victory. Does at least look like we should see snow falling, which is always nice. Personally, I do wish it could start Monday evening instead of Tuesday; since if it waits until Tuesday, that brings up all the internal, personal issues of "Do I do the Columbia-to-DC commute Tuesday morning?" The last real and only (and relatively light!) snow resulted in a 2-hr commute leaving DC at 1:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looking at the NAM, it looks as if there remain other options on how this ultimately plays out (southern vort seems noticeably north) not saying the net result will be diff from anything we've had so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looking at the NAM, it looks as if there remain other options on how this ultimately plays out (southern vort seems noticeably north) not saying the net result will be diff from anything we've had so far this year i think the only way we score is if the s/w stays stronger diggier in the later panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Let the weenie-ism begin. Looks like on Satellite and radar that there is some good STJ action already and a 1004 L. Probably won't mean much for us in 48 hours though. Here is my weenie post...the 06z NAM was pretty putrid moisture wise for areas that look like they are about to get rocked looking at the radar....some places around a .25 so if anything I say the NAM is moisture starved as compared to radar for areas not yet receiving stuff....to be fair it was pretty wet in Texas where the rain was already falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think our best and perhaps only hope is for that PV to keep lifting out faster and that southern wave to become unexpectedly robust and hang together much better. The NAM is sort of hinting at something like that, but it's almost certainly not going to be enough. (edited to add: Midlo beat me to it - hehe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i think the only way we score is if the s/w stays stronger diggier in the later panels or, if that western vort slows down so much it doesn't interfere with the southern storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 getting the Low to pop off SE coast at 42 hrs is a move in the right direction imho http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 or, if that western vort slows down so much it doesn't interfere with the southern storm agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ok so don't laugh but I'm watching the weather channel because I like watching the snow fall even if it is not at my house so I wanted to see how they are preparing down South....anyway they said after viewing some of the latest info that the snow/freezing rain line seems to be around I-20 in Atlanta...below that not so much snow and mostly frozen above that more snow but not crazy until you get up into NE Georgia and far Eastern Tennessee. Seems to me that is more North than previous guesses. Ok you can laugh now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 300mb flow is flatter along the southern part of the country vs. 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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