CheesyPoofs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How do you know this isn't a shutout? Models don't exactly get the cutoff right when our area gets shutout of Miller B's or other storms that redevelop too late for us. Similarly, how do people seem to know that this is going to be a shutout? It is the upper air depictions that are especially ugly, that lead us to think that even 2-4" isn't happening, even though the models still give us that much, verbatim. I guess this is the only reason why I can see the cause for the pessimism... We've been through this agony before, so I prefer to be realistic. i know a lot of people talk about the seasonal pattern/seasonal trends/etc, but I don't think that just because we've been screwed on the past few events that we are destined to be screwed for every or the majority of events this year. As an example the opposite way-- It found a way to snow pretty much every event last year until after Feb 10th where we couldn't buy snow, including the Feb 26th MECS for areas further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It was just a suggestion, and I thought it might dampen the back and forth thats going on right now. No need to be so defensive! Unfortunately some people feel like its their civic duty to be the "adult" and squash any hope others might choose to hold. It gets old real fast! But what does that have to do with me? I'm usually the most above the board optimistic person here...maybe way too optimistic. I'm usually the one rallying the troops..not sure where this whole meme of me being negative comes from. I'm the one down in the trenches, among the few holding out hope down to the wire. I dunno...maybe its frustration. Don't worry, I'm going to bed. Ian (i know you're pissed) clean up the thread...I'm out of line, but stupid ass Ji kinda set me off. He better not ever come to me when he's 5 posted again begging to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The problem as I see it is TOO MUCH BLOCKING this season. Usually what we see when we get decent snows is this: 1) It gets cold. 2) Blocking relaxes and we get a decent storm 3) Cold for a few days then warming, usually followed by a rainstorm. 4) Blocking redevelops, back in the icebox. 5) Blocking relaxes, we get more decent snow 6) Cold for a few days then mild up, perhaps a cutter/rain storm Rinse and repeat. Trouble with this odd winter out - we are suffering from a case of TOO MUCH BLOCKING. For us in the SOUTH Mid Atl - We are going to absolutely freeze our asses off like you would not believe. This blocking is unbelievable and it will not stop. This is -NAO blocking on steroids and it is winning the war on La Nina. It's harder to break down than Rocky Balboa. It's going to be so cold this month we'll be comparing it to Jan '82 and Jan '85. Cold temperature records are going to tumble this month. But the NW flow is going to shear the hell out of the shortwaves. An Alberta Clipper will bury Jacksonville Florida in 5 inches of snow sometime this month. That's how far south the clippers are going to be because of the extreme blocking and cold. DCA will be like New England in terms of cold, sans the snowpack. Well for whatever it's worth the flow in the GFS lifts and relaxes quite a bit after about the 20th or so. We get some kind of cold blast after next weekend then things are pretty blah. In fact, it doesn't look like much of any kind of blocking/-NAO in the longer range. There certainly looks to be some cold air up in Canada, but mostly staying there. It's been showing this now somewhat consistently for a little while. Not sure if it's temporary or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tell my kids I love them You look a little pale, dude. euro in 30 minutes hang tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So... as a follower on this site. Where do you guys go to see the maps - Euro / GFS, etc... I see that you can go to the Unisys Weather but it is obviously not updated as frequently. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD1209 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011 VALID JAN 09/0000 UTC THRU JAN 12/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN AND PREFERENCES INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANT SYSTEM HEADING. ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: AFTER 00Z TUE...GFS THE NAM INITIALIZES THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OREGON/IDAHO APPROXIMATELY 25 NM TOO FAR NORTH...WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO AN INCREASINGLY SLOW AND DEEP SOLUTION ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH ARE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THUS...THE NAM IS DISCOUNTED BEGINNING 00Z TUE. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE LOW FASTER THAN THE GFS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINS A SIMILAR PATH...WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN MORE LIKE THE GFS. THUS...DUE TO CONSENSUS RECOMMEND THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So... as a follower on this site. Where do you guys go to see the maps - Euro / GFS, etc... I see that you can go to the Unisys Weather but it is obviously not updated as frequently. Thanks. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro out to 12 no changes so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro out to 12 no changes so far It held through 12! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It held through 12! hr 24 nothing changed to much s/w and low just a smidge west over tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 30 s/w and low a hair slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr36 low about the same snow into sc north ga western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 48 precip extent north and low about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Your 6 hours behind tombo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like primary is weaker and more south of NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 54 low a smidge closer to the coast 850's about the same upper low in the plains a little less diggy precip into rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is this good? hr 60 has a sub 1016 low bout 50 miles south of cape fear...the primary is alot weaker than 12z, and is tn somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 60 ohio low just about vanished snow to ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 def a move toward the others but i think we're still ok in general.. should get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 cave This blows oh well 2 to 3 inches it looks like at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 72 low weaker off of nc coast 0.25 to ric 0.10 to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 snow 1-3 in!! cent md. heavier snow to the east!!! hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the snow hole has grown though.. that thing is everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 cave Really? Sounds like the opposite, no? Don't we WANT that Ohio Valley low to be further south and transfer to the coastal low faster? It sounds like the Euro is a lot less likely to screw us, Miller-B style than the NAM/GFS for example...I guess we'll find out in a sec, hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 def a move toward the others but i think we're still ok in general.. should get some snow Towards NAM? So primary is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .5" touches coast.. .25+ everywhere else except for a diamond to the west of dc that is .10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like GGEM. Not NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 78 0.30 ric dc 0.25 low further south than 12z well off va capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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