Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The thing is, he probably doesn't even realize the irony in his dumb ass post. Even more scary, he just may realize it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lots of bridge jumpers 2 days before an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 this thread has gone to crap GFS ensemble mean looks OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lots of bridge jumpers 2 days before an event i agree, alot can happen in 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I never thought of Randy as a weenie tll this event. Panicking and rants. It's not like we lost a blizzard. The 12z euro and ensembles held. Wouldnt it make sense to wait for the best model to run before bailing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lots of bridge jumpers 2 days before an event And Ji isn't one of them. This has been a weird year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lots of bridge jumpers 2 days before an event Tell my kids I love them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And Ji isn't one of them. This has been a weird year... Ji has already bailed on this storm several times over the past week. If the Euro looks bad he will lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tell my kids I love them You look a little pale, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I never thought of Randy as a weenie tll this event. Panicking and rants. It's not like we lost a blizzard. The 12z euro and ensembles held. Wouldnt it make sense to wait for the best model to run before bailing? The best model that gave us a MECS/HECS for several days leading to 12/26? That one? Dude, give it up, our chance of a nice snowfall from this storm is OVER. It's been over at least since 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 In Euro I don't trust. It'll fold. Question is will it be OTS or wound-up with a warm dryslot? Reverse psychology or do you know Miss Cleo? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We're moving into the bargaining stage. 2 to 4..just 2 to 4 and its a victory. By tomorrow 1 to 2 will be the goal. Dusting being the goal is a real possibility by monday. Might as well laugh at it. We are well on our way to another whiff. We all know it, but nobody wants to say it. Wow Stormtracker, you are usually one of the most optimistic weather fellas I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ji has already bailed on this storm several times over the past week. If the Euro looks bad he will lose it. I never bailed on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You look a little pale, dude. You would too, if you jumped off a bridge and in mid-flight suddenly realized, "oh s**t, this was a baaad idea!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I never thought of Randy as a weenie tll this event. Panicking and rants. It's not like we lost a blizzard. The 12z euro and ensembles held. Wouldnt it make sense to wait for the best model to run before bailing? If there's anybody who I couldn't care less of thinking I'm a weenie, it'd probably be Mad Cheese and THEN you. It really doesn't mean much when the board schizophrenic starts throwing out weenie labels. Seriously. The only thing that would probably make sense is for you to go sit down somewhere and stop being a walking, breathing manifestation of irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's a novel idea. If you believe this threat is done with then either stay off the boards through tuesday or avoid posting. Why would you waste your time arguing if you believe their will be no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow Stormtracker, you are usually one of the most optimistic weather fellas I know. Yup, but it is what it is. I hope to GOD I'm wrong or "panicking" according to the board psychopath. But I've seen this movie too many times to not know the ending. With the Christmas thing, I hung in there even when King weenie was waffling back and forth because I still saw the potential. If the models can get away from that primary holding on look, then yeah, I'll hop back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The only thing that would probably make sense is for you to go sit down somewhere and stop being a walking, breathing manifestation of irony. I gotta steal that quote...hillarious! And could be used for just about any situation. Now, back to some weather...or is it too late now in this thread to go back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's a novel idea. If you believe this threat is done with then either stay off the boards through tuesday or avoid posting. Why would you waste your time arguing if you believe their will be no storm. Because we are interested in weather, we want to track it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pinning ones hopes/fears on the GFS or NAM outside of 48 hours is usually not wise. There are players on the field for a snow storm for our area. The GFS and NAM just don't know what to do with those players yet. Surely, you remember how the GFS had the post Christmas blizzard out to sea, then brought it back west to give us a good hit, then drifted east within the last 24 hours. Things may look a lot different/better over the next 24 hours. Not time to bail yet on at least a moderate event. BTW, I know that it's human nature, but we would likely feel better about this event if we stop comparing what we may get to what others further north get. MDstorm The GFS/NAM verbatim both give the area 2-4." Yeah, I'll admit it is slightly frustrating that we can't get a little more QPF when areas to the north likely will, but at least we aren't going to get shutout and we are likely going to get enough to shovel. I do find it funny that many throughout the day preached "2-4 or 3-6 is all we should expect -- anything else is gravy." Then the NAM/GFS come in showing 2-4", and everyone is ready to jump off a cliff? Another explanation I guess (in addition to feeling bad that areas further north are getting more) is that people saw the Euro spitting out .55" at DCA, around .5" at BWI, etc. and raised their expectations? I'm sure someone will reply to this post with "sure the GFS/NAM show 2-4" now, but just wait until tomorrow when they show barely an inch." If that happens, ok...but lets wait for it to happen before we head to nearest bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's a novel idea. If you believe this threat is done with then either stay off the boards through tuesday or avoid posting. Why would you waste your time arguing if you believe their will be no storm. Here's an even more novel idea, stop trying to tell people when they should post about weather on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If I went one of these rants I would be warned or suspended but Im not an administrator or a long time poster....how about back to actual weather discussions as opposed to whos a psychopath or not and whos optimistic or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The problem as I see it is TOO MUCH BLOCKING this season. Usually what we see when we get decent snows is this: 1) It gets cold. 2) Blocking relaxes and we get a decent storm 3) Cold for a few days then warming, usually followed by a rainstorm. 4) Blocking redevelops, back in the icebox. 5) Blocking relaxes, we get more decent snow 6) Cold for a few days then mild up, perhaps a cutter/rain storm Rinse and repeat. Trouble with this odd winter out - we are suffering from a case of TOO MUCH BLOCKING. For us in the SOUTH Mid Atl - We are going to absolutely freeze our asses off like you would not believe. This blocking is unbelievable and it will not stop. This is -NAO blocking on steroids and it is winning the war on La Nina. It's harder to break down than Rocky Balboa. It's going to be so cold this month we'll be comparing it to Jan '82 and Jan '85. Cold temperature records are going to tumble this month. But the NW flow is going to shear the hell out of the shortwaves. An Alberta Clipper will bury Jacksonville Florida in 5 inches of snow sometime this month. That's how far south the clippers are going to be because of the extreme blocking and cold. DCA will be like New England in terms of cold, sans the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If I went one of these rants I would be warned or suspended but Im not an administrator or a long time poster....how about back to actual weather discussions as opposed to whos a psychopath or not and whos optimistic or not Its a regional thread, you'd be fine, so you can stop with that one. But you're right, i'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS/NAM verbatim both give the area 2-4." Yeah, I'll admit it is slightly frustrating that we can't get a little more QPF when areas to the north likely will, but at least we aren't going to get shutout and we are likely going to get enough to shovel. How do you know this isn't a shutout? Models don't exactly get the cutoff right when our area gets shutout of Miller B's or other storms that redevelop too late for us. I do find it funny that many throughout the day preached "2-4 or 3-6 is all we should expect -- anything else is gravy." Then the NAM/GFS come in showing 2-4", and everyone is ready to jump off a cliff? Another explanation I guess (in addition to feeling bad that areas further north getting more) is that people saw the Euro spitting out .55" at DCA, around .5" at BWI, etc. and raised their expectations? It is the upper air depictions that are especially ugly, that lead us to think that even 2-4" isn't happening, even though the models still give us that much, verbatim. I'm sure someone will reply to this post with "sure the GFS/NAM show 2-4" now, but just wait until tomorrow when they show barely an inch." If that happens, ok...but lets wait for it to happen before we head to nearest bridge. We've been through this agony before, so I prefer to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Because we are interested in weather, we want to track it anyway. Doubtful...if there was honestly no chance of any decent snow, you can sure as hell bet that a good 80% of the people viewing this thread right now would not be doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's an even more novell idea, stop trying to tell people when they should post about weather on a weather board. It was just a suggestion, and I thought it might dampen the back and forth thats going on right now. No need to be so defensive! Unfortunately some people feel like its their civic duty to be the "adult" and squash any hope others might choose to hold. It gets old real fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 isnt the nogaps more of a tropical model? just curious No, the NOGAPS is just as worthless in the tropics as it is in the mid-latitudes. Outside of what is posted on this board, I never even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The best model that gave us a MECS/HECS for several days leading to 12/26? That one? Dude, give it up, our chance of a nice snowfall from this storm is OVER. It's been over at least since 18z. some of the comments here are bordering on pathetic. get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The problem as I see it is TOO MUCH BLOCKING this season. Usually what we see when we get decent snows is this: 1) It gets cold. 2) Blocking relaxes and we get a decent storm 3) Cold for a few days then warming, usually followed by a rainstorm. 4) Blocking redevelops, back in the icebox. 5) Blocking relaxes, we get more decent snow 6) Cold for a few days then mild up, perhaps a cutter/rain storm Rinse and repeat. No the real problem is the lack of an active STJ...the 12/26 event sort of created a pseudo STJ and DC had a legit shot in that, but it didn't work out. A lot of these other systems are northern stream dominated...this one is no exception. Its a split flow so if it digs far enough it can still get DC into decent snow, but a lot of the time it bring the primary too far N into OH/PA so you get a precip hole when the coastal tries to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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