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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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I never thought of Randy as a weenie tll this event. Panicking and rants. It's not like we lost a blizzard. The 12z euro and ensembles held. Wouldnt it make sense to wait for the best model to run before bailing?

The best model that gave us a MECS/HECS for several days leading to 12/26? That one? :lol:

Dude, give it up, our chance of a nice snowfall from this storm is OVER. It's been over at least since 18z.

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We're moving into the bargaining stage. 2 to 4..just 2 to 4 and its a victory. By tomorrow 1 to 2 will be the goal. Dusting being the goal is a real possibility by monday.

Might as well laugh at it. We are well on our way to another whiff. We all know it, but nobody wants to say it.

Wow Stormtracker, you are usually one of the most optimistic weather fellas I know.

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I never thought of Randy as a weenie tll this event. Panicking and rants. It's not like we lost a blizzard. The 12z euro and ensembles held. Wouldnt it make sense to wait for the best model to run before bailing?

If there's anybody who I couldn't care less of thinking I'm a weenie, it'd probably be Mad Cheese and THEN you.

It really doesn't mean much when the board schizophrenic starts throwing out weenie labels. Seriously. The only thing that would probably make sense is for you to go sit down somewhere and stop being a walking, breathing manifestation of irony.

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Wow Stormtracker, you are usually one of the most optimistic weather fellas I know.

Yup, but it is what it is.

I hope to GOD I'm wrong or "panicking" according to the board psychopath. But I've seen this movie too many times to not know the ending. With the Christmas thing, I hung in there even when King weenie was waffling back and forth because I still saw the potential. If the models can get away from that primary holding on look, then yeah, I'll hop back.

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Here's a novel idea. If you believe this threat is done with then either stay off the boards through tuesday or avoid posting. Why would you waste your time arguing if you believe their will be no storm.

Because we are interested in weather, we want to track it anyway.

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Pinning ones hopes/fears on the GFS or NAM outside of 48 hours is usually not wise. There are players on the field for a snow storm for our area. The GFS and NAM just don't know what to do with those players yet. Surely, you remember how the GFS had the post Christmas blizzard out to sea, then brought it back west to give us a good hit, then drifted east within the last 24 hours. Things may look a lot different/better over the next 24 hours. Not time to bail yet on at least a moderate event. BTW, I know that it's human nature, but we would likely feel better about this event if we stop comparing what we may get to what others further north get.

MDstorm

The GFS/NAM verbatim both give the area 2-4." Yeah, I'll admit it is slightly frustrating that we can't get a little more QPF when areas to the north likely will, but at least we aren't going to get shutout and we are likely going to get enough to shovel.

I do find it funny that many throughout the day preached "2-4 or 3-6 is all we should expect -- anything else is gravy." Then the NAM/GFS come in showing 2-4", and everyone is ready to jump off a cliff? Another explanation I guess (in addition to feeling bad that areas further north are getting more) is that people saw the Euro spitting out .55" at DCA, around .5" at BWI, etc. and raised their expectations?

I'm sure someone will reply to this post with "sure the GFS/NAM show 2-4" now, but just wait until tomorrow when they show barely an inch." If that happens, ok...but lets wait for it to happen before we head to nearest bridge.

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Here's a novel idea. If you believe this threat is done with then either stay off the boards through tuesday or avoid posting. Why would you waste your time arguing if you believe their will be no storm.

Here's an even more novel idea, stop trying to tell people when they should post about weather on a weather board.

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The problem as I see it is TOO MUCH BLOCKING this season.

Usually what we see when we get decent snows is this:

1) It gets cold.

2) Blocking relaxes and we get a decent storm

3) Cold for a few days then warming, usually followed by a rainstorm.

4) Blocking redevelops, back in the icebox.

5) Blocking relaxes, we get more decent snow

6) Cold for a few days then mild up, perhaps a cutter/rain storm

Rinse and repeat.

Trouble with this odd winter out - we are suffering from a case of TOO MUCH BLOCKING.

For us in the SOUTH Mid Atl - We are going to absolutely freeze our asses off like you would not believe.

This blocking is unbelievable and it will not stop. This is -NAO blocking on steroids and it is winning the war on La Nina. It's harder to break down than Rocky Balboa.

It's going to be so cold this month we'll be comparing it to Jan '82 and Jan '85. Cold temperature records are going to tumble this month. But the NW flow is going to shear the hell out of the shortwaves.

An Alberta Clipper will bury Jacksonville Florida in 5 inches of snow sometime this month. That's how far south the clippers are going to be because of the extreme blocking and cold.

DCA will be like New England in terms of cold, sans the snowpack.

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If I went one of these rants I would be warned or suspended but Im not an administrator or a long time poster....how about back to actual weather discussions as opposed to whos a psychopath or not and whos optimistic or not

Its a regional thread, you'd be fine, so you can stop with that one. But you're right, i'm done.

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The GFS/NAM verbatim both give the area 2-4." Yeah, I'll admit it is slightly frustrating that we can't get a little more QPF when areas to the north likely will, but at least we aren't going to get shutout and we are likely going to get enough to shovel.

How do you know this isn't a shutout? Models don't exactly get the cutoff right when our area gets shutout of Miller B's or other storms that redevelop too late for us.

I do find it funny that many throughout the day preached "2-4 or 3-6 is all we should expect -- anything else is gravy." Then the NAM/GFS come in showing 2-4", and everyone is ready to jump off a cliff? Another explanation I guess (in addition to feeling bad that areas further north getting more) is that people saw the Euro spitting out .55" at DCA, around .5" at BWI, etc. and raised their expectations?

It is the upper air depictions that are especially ugly, that lead us to think that even 2-4" isn't happening, even though the models still give us that much, verbatim.

I'm sure someone will reply to this post with "sure the GFS/NAM show 2-4" now, but just wait until tomorrow when they show barely an inch." If that happens, ok...but lets wait for it to happen before we head to nearest bridge.

We've been through this agony before, so I prefer to be realistic.

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Here's an even more novell idea, stop trying to tell people when they should post about weather on a weather board.

It was just a suggestion, and I thought it might dampen the back and forth thats going on right now. No need to be so defensive! Unfortunately some people feel like its their civic duty to be the "adult" and squash any hope others might choose to hold. It gets old real fast!

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The best model that gave us a MECS/HECS for several days leading to 12/26? That one? :lol:

Dude, give it up, our chance of a nice snowfall from this storm is OVER. It's been over at least since 18z.

some of the comments here are bordering on pathetic. get a grip.

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The problem as I see it is TOO MUCH BLOCKING this season.

Usually what we see when we get decent snows is this:

1) It gets cold.

2) Blocking relaxes and we get a decent storm

3) Cold for a few days then warming, usually followed by a rainstorm.

4) Blocking redevelops, back in the icebox.

5) Blocking relaxes, we get more decent snow

6) Cold for a few days then mild up, perhaps a cutter/rain storm

Rinse and repeat.

No the real problem is the lack of an active STJ...the 12/26 event sort of created a pseudo STJ and DC had a legit shot in that, but it didn't work out. A lot of these other systems are northern stream dominated...this one is no exception. Its a split flow so if it digs far enough it can still get DC into decent snow, but a lot of the time it bring the primary too far N into OH/PA so you get a precip hole when the coastal tries to take over.

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