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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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We're moving into the bargaining stage. 2 to 4..just 2 to 4 and its a victory. By tomorrow 1 to 2 will be the goal. Dusting being the goal is a real possibility by monday.

Might as well laugh at it. We are well on our way to another whiff. We all know it, but nobody wants to say it.

We're all saying it, just not so obviously as you did.

:thumbsup:

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We're moving into the bargaining stage. 2 to 4..just 2 to 4 and its a victory. By tomorrow 1 to 2 will be the goal. Dusting being the goal is a real possibility by monday.

Might as well laugh at it. We are well on our way to another whiff. We all know it, but nobody wants to say it.

Wait tll the euro comes out first you hyperactive panic driven weenie

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So is 1" of snow a "normal" winter in northern Virginia? Makes me miss Louisiana weather. We didn't get much snow, but at least QPF was never hard to come by. Sheesh :rolleyes:

there's a mtn chain just to our west and it's a la nina :(

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Pinning ones hopes/fears on the GFS or NAM outside of 48 hours is usually not wise. There are players on the field for a snow storm for our area. The GFS and NAM just don't know what to do with those players yet. Surely, you remember how the GFS had the post Christmas blizzard out to sea, then brought it back west to give us a good hit, then drifted east within the last 24 hours. Things may look a lot different/better over the next 24 hours. Not time to bail yet on at least a moderate event. BTW, I know that it's human nature, but we would likely feel better about this event if we stop comparing what we may get to what others further north get.

MDstorm

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So is 1" of snow a "normal" winter in northern Virginia? Makes me miss Louisiana weather. We didn't get much snow, but at least QPF was never hard to come by. Sheesh :rolleyes:

One inch of snow is well below normal climo for Northern Virginia. We generally receive 17 inches in a winter.

HOWEVER - Last winter the entire area received 70 to 90 inches of snow.

Northern Virginia and DCA will suffer at least through 2045.

I won't be surprised if my backyard in Dale City gets no more than 5 inches of snow TOTAL through early April 2011. So I got an inch today. Woopee. Now I have 3.5 on the season. I'll have five inches total snow on this season by late March. Take that to the bank.

2 to 5 inches on this season was my original forecast for Woodbridge VA, and it will verify, and I WILL LIKE IT.

This is a New England / Pac Northwest winter.

Another factor - Persistent strong blocking will successfully shear out every snowstorm for us - But spring will bring record flooding to the Mid Atlantic once the blocking breaks down by late April.

One thing that is an absolute 110 percent lock for DCA and N VA is persistent freeze your ass off COLD - clear through late March, but very light snowfall.

If you want snow go to Garrett County, the LES belts, the Northeast, or the Sierra.

You won't find much snow in the southern Mid Atlantic this winter. Or the next.

For all of you analog folks: 1982 and 1985 were VERY COLD Januarys for the Mid Atlantic. How much snow did we get those winters in DCA and N VA?

I rest my case. Strong blocking + VERY COLD generally equals light snowfall. NO exceptions.

Mark my words.........

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So is 1" of snow a "normal" winter in northern Virginia? Makes me miss Louisiana weather. We didn't get much snow, but at least QPF was never hard to come by. Sheesh :rolleyes:

No, it's not normal...despite some sarcasm you might read/hear. Though to be fair in this area, a lot of times it's very hit-or-miss with snow each year. You either get a great winter or one with very little it seems, typically you don't get right on the average (~18" or so depending on where you live). Good point that in LA, you don't have to worry about QPF (and I've been there in the summer). Actually around here it seems we've been in a relative drought, prolonged dry periods much of late spring through fall, despite a couple of heavy rain events, and this winter so far has been quite dry, snow or otherwise.

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Pinning ones hopes/fears on the GFS or NAM outside of 48 hours is usually not wise. There are players on the field for a snow storm for our area. The GFS and NAM just don't know what to do with those players yet. Surely, you remember how the GFS had the post Christmas blizzard out to sea, then brought it back west to give us a good hit, then drifted east within the last 24 hours. Things may look a lot different/better over the next 24 hours. Not time to bail yet on at least a moderate event. BTW, I know that it's human nature, but we would likely feel better about this event if we stop comparing what we may get to what others further north get.

MDstorm

Not happening :whistle:

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Ok, who stole Jebman's login information?

One inch of snow is well below normal climo for Northern Virginia. We generally receive 17 inches in a winter.

HOWEVER - Last winter the entire area received 70 to 90 inches of snow.

Northern Virginia and DCA will suffer at least through 2045.

I won't be surprised if my backyard in Dale City gets no more than 5 inches of snow TOTAL through early April 2011.

2 to 5 inches on this season was my original forecast for Woodbridge VA, and it will verify, and I WILL LIKE IT.

This is a New England / Pac Northwest winter.

Another factor - Persistent strong blocking will successfully shear out every snowstorm for us - But spring will bring record flooding to the Mid Atlantic once the blocking breaks down by late April.

One thing that is an absolute 110 percent lock for DCA and N VA is persistent freeze your ass off COLD - clear through late March, but very light snowfall.

If you want snow go to Garrett County, the LES belts, the Northeast, or the Sierra.

You won't find much snow in the southern Mid Atlantic this winter. Or the next.

Mark my words.........

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One inch of snow is well below normal climo for Northern Virginia. We generally receive 17 inches in a winter.

HOWEVER - Last winter the entire area received 70 to 90 inches of snow.

Northern Virginia and DCA will suffer at least through 2045.

I won't be surprised if my backyard in Dale City gets no more than 5 inches of snow TOTAL through early April 2011.

2 to 5 inches on this season was my original forecast for Woodbridge VA, and it will verify, and I WILL LIKE IT.

This is a New England / Pac Northwest winter.

Another factor - Persistent strong blocking will successfully shear out every snowstorm for us - But spring will bring record flooding to the Mid Atlantic once the blocking breaks down by late April.

One thing that is an absolute 110 percent lock for DCA and N VA is persistent freeze your ass off COLD - clear through late March, but very light snowfall.

If you want snow go to Garrett County, the LES belts, the Northeast, or the Sierra.

You won't find much snow in the southern Mid Atlantic this winter. Or the next.

For all of you analog folks: 1982 and 1985 were VERY COLD Januarys for the Mid Atlantic. How much snow did we get those winters in DCA and N VA?

I rest my case. Strong blocking + VERY COLD generally equals light snowfall. NO exceptions.

Mark my words.........

Great news. Nothing excites me more than boring weather...

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