stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 just like the last run, the transfer to the coastal takes place in the nick of time to prevent major changeover to DCA/BWI Hopefully, as we get closer the block will show up a little stronger. I mean, we're back to climo around here...so this is the normal picture. We'd probably mix at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i hate when it stops at a key spot... will we dry slot after 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hopefully, as we get closer the block will show up a little stronger. I mean, we're back to climo around here...so this is the normal picture. We'd probably mix at some point. mix is OK because it means we're probably close to the qpf max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i hate when it stops at a key spot... will we dry slot after 168? not based on 700mb map at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not based on 700mb map at 168 yeah true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i hate when it stops at a key spot... will we dry slot after 168? Looks like it could be an ice or sleet storm unless we move the 850 low southeast really rapidly as the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not based on 700mb map at 168 at least I got one thing right w/these damn computers today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like it could be an ice or sleet storm unless we move the 850 low southeast really rapidly as the coastal takes over. i dont like this placement much for this range... too much time to go bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like it could be an ice or sleet storm unless we move the 850 low southeast really rapidly as the coastal takes over. thicknesses borderline, but I like living on the edge at 168 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_slp168192_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good thing i live in leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i dont like this placement much for this range... too much time to go bad did you want to be in the bull's eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i hate when it stops at a key spot... will we dry slot after 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good thing i live in leesburg a few on this board might argue that assertion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good thing i live in leesburg Yeah, that's helped you out a lot this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 did you want to be in the bull's eye? no.. i want it to stop going north -- the 500 maps were better looking at least i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 did you want to be in the bulls eye? I think we'd like the 850 low to our south. I'm not fond of 850 lows being to our northwest. Usually bad things happen. Luckily it's still so far in the future it's not worth worrying about that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, that's helped you out a lot this year. Climo still says n w of town does better. Anyway ..only 32 more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, that's helped you out a lot this year. I think I'm in the lead with 3.2" for the dc area this winter. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think we'd like the 850 low to our south. I'm not fond of 850 lows being to our northwest. Usually bad things happen. Luckily it's still so far in the future it's not worth worrying about that much. we haven't had a storm go to our west in a long, long time the seasonal pattern tells me that when we're sitting here a week from now, our concern will be if it gets far enough north/west for us to get into the decent precip shield but again, that's based on the last month+ more than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Of course when Gfs says yes euro says no. When euro says yes..Gfs says no. They never agree unless they both say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think we'd like the 850 low to our south. I'm not fond of 850 lows being to our northwest. Usually bad things happen. Luckily it's still so far in the future it's not worth worrying about that much. Time to dust of some weenie magic and use this gem: as we get closer in, the GFS will see the block better. right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good thing i live in leesburg congrats hop on the dgex train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Of course when Gfs says yes euro says no. When euro says yes..Gfs says no. They never agree unless they both say no does it bother you more because it sounds like your marriage or that we're not getting snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hopefully, as we get closer the block will show up a little stronger. I mean, we're back to climo around here...so this is the normal picture. We'd probably mix at some point. I have no idea why people here spend so much time worrying about borderline temperatures at this time range, especially when the large-scale features keep changing so much. The rain/snow line is never nailed down until much closer in and even then the models often screw it up. They also tend to underestimate CAD in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Time to dust of some weenie magic and use this gem: as we get closer in, the GFS will see the block better. right? The GFS doesn't nail stuff like that this far out. In six hours it will be showing a cutter or OTS, most likely. Don't sweat the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 we haven't had a storm go to our west in a long, long time the seasonal pattern tells me that when we're sitting here a week from now, our concern will be if it gets far enough north/west for us to get into the decent precip shield but again, that's based on the last month+ more than anything else the only thing we know for sure is we're still at least 7 days out and the odds that we'll see a snowstorm every run till then are almost 0%. so yeah it's fun to examine but im going to keep expectations very low for at least another 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 per the DGEX based on the Accuwx site, the total snow that has fallen during the entire run of 84-192 hrs, 10-12" at DCA, 12-15" at BWi, 15-18" at FDK and Westminster and 18"+ around York, PA I am serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The GFS doesn't nail stuff like that this far out. In six hours it will be showing a cutter or OTS, most likely. Don't sweat the details. i feel like until recently we didnt even pay that much attention to stuff in this range. i guess meteorology has gotten a lot better. i mean when there is a consistent signal it's one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 per the DGEX based on the Accuwx site, the total snow that has fallen during the entire run of 84-192 hrs, 10-12" at DCA, 12-15" at BWi, 15-18" at FDK and Westminster and 18"+ around York, PA I am serious just to clarify, that is all from the storm at 168+ hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wow Ian, I just said exactly what you said over at 40S a few minutes ago-even crediting you with a comment about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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