needbiggerboat Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 last 4 gfs op runs for all the griping going on here, 18z was a positive evolution at least in terms of track.. 0z could indeed move closer to the 12z ec solution. of course it could be a complete dud and reflect more progressive flow and lack of needed interaction between the n and s streams. this was seemingly a modest potential to begin with, so why not just let the solution play out and not worry so much about the ups and downs....it's always tough to get snow around these parts. a few inches would be good, any more would be gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 many of our winters are made up of events like the ones we've had plus a moderate event (or two) if we're lucky. we're not much below avg season to date... a modest event next week could push us to or above for the time being at least. a strong northern stream with minimal southern energy making it this far north/inland is going to favor drying east of the apps but we've been close enough to think we're not out of hope for the season. I know, Ian. It does seem like we're bellyaching and being crybabies about it, but the issue is that places north, south, east, and west of us are getting in on the fun while we're stuck accepting climo as the reason we don't have much snow so far this season. It's irrational and juvenile, but there's no being rational for snow weenies when you think you're getting royally screwed while the rest of the region is getting rocked. Where are those 60s people were mentioning for a week or so from today? I could use some of those! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm thinking the 0Z GFS will stay pretty sucky. These ensembles are all copies of the op. Time to make a drink. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf066.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hopefully sref is really positive then the nam is terrible then the gfs is better with the euro ots they are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 as crazy as it sounds, now we need that canadian vortex to hang on a little longer to help get the northern stream to get pushed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just had a chance to look over the 18Z GFS. Not sure what everybody is flipping out about. The Op for the last couple of days has been having this screwy look and this wasn't an exception. Do you really think you are going to see a duel low pressure running up the coast with equal pressure drops with a consistent distance between the two lows for over 24 hours? I guess it's possible but is it really realistic? Add in the fact that we are talking the 18Z which is an off run and according to DT the worst of the 4 runs. Also the ensemble means look fine to me and have been very consistent for a while now. I know the NOGAPS has gone south but when the hell does anybody pay attention to that? I think some people need to step back and take a couple of runs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hopefully sref is really positive then the nam is terrible then the gfs is better with the euro ots That would be pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z nam Is rolling... H3 winds is more tilted with a slightly bigger ridge. A step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wasn't displeased with the 18z nam...gfs...well at least it looked good long term...again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z nam Is rolling... H3 winds is more tilted with a slightly bigger ridge. A step in the right direction. see that closed 5H s/w in TX? that hasn't been on any model http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wasn't displeased with the 18z nam...gfs...well at least it looked good long term...again I want this to work out for us as much as you do, believe me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 they are not We have been screwed by the SREFS before , they will screw us again. Maybe a reverse screw job, I don't know. Either way I don't trust them in this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 as crazy as it sounds, now we need that canadian vortex to hang on a little longer to help get the northern stream to get pushed south At least early, it seems to be doing that ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is such a thread the needle, I don't even know what I'm looking for tonight. I guess a weaker TN valley low and stronger coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am liking the NAM at 36HR so far. About to get ugly, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least early, it seems to be doing that ever so slightly. yeah, I would agree small steps I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am liking the NAM at 36HR so far. About to get ugly, I'm sure. More moisture and the sim radar looks like a nice coastal forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 <br />I am liking the NAM at 36HR so far. About to get ugly, I'm sure.<br /><br /><br /><br />Simulated Radar looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 see that closed 5H s/w in TX? that hasn't been on any model http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_024l.gif Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 actually, sim/rad at 42 shows the SE precip shield further north and the western system has a weaker radar signature that can only be good for us as it indicates the western Low may not get as cranked <fingers & eyes crossed> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 western trough seems a hair slower aaaagain this run vs. 18Z I don't think that's a positive, but its not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hmm, at 48 hrs the 850 Low looks to be heading for the coast and that was definitely NOT on any prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not going to happen again for the Baltimore area. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 actually, sim/rad at 42 shows the SE precip shield further north and the western system has a weaker radar signature that can only be good for us as it indicates the western Low may not get as cranked <fingers & eyes crossed> I think you've looked at one to many model runs my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not going to happen again for the Baltimore area. Next. Shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not going to happen again for the Baltimore area. Next. You have the model out to the end of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The enrgy is a little more consolidated than 18z and the back edge of the troff is a hair further south. Not sure what if any differences this will make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sorry if you have a hard time dealing with the truth guy. This Michigan transplant loves the snow as much as the next guy, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hmm, at 48 hrs the 850 Low looks to be heading for the coast and that was definitely NOT on any prior runs Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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