VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 no, we're people disgusted with the incredulous computers and busted forecasts are you suggesting we don't have good reason to feel that way after 12/26 and today? No but reasonable people dont jump off a cliff 3-4days before a storm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I can't believe people are canceling a storm 72 hours out with the Euro showing 0.5 qpf two runs in a row because of the 18z model suite. Relax people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL at the negativity in this thread.... so the NOGAPS went east, who cares its the NOGAPS. the 18z GFS? ehem yeah. GFS has looked screwy and the GGEM is flip flopping. SO we have the EURO which for the moment looks pretty damn good and the NAM, not awful- and the NAM at 84 hours? not exactly in its wheelhouse. So still lots of spread and looking at the ensembles things are not bad at all. law of averages if nothing else says DC-BWI just cant be in the jip zone again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I can't believe people are canceling a storm 72 hours out with the Euro showing 0.5 qpf two runs in a row because of the 18z model suite. Relax people! While I agree, I can understand after the winter we have had here. We need some euro love to bring morale up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL at the negativity in this thread.... so the NOGAPS went east, who cares its the NOGAPS. the 18z GFS? ehem yeah. GFS has looked screwy and the GGEM is flip flopping. SO we have the EURO which for the moment looks pretty damn good and the NAM, not awful- and the NAM at 84 hours? not exactly in its wheelhouse. So still lots of spread and looking at the ensembles things are not bad at all. law of averages if nothing else says DC-BWI just cant be in the jip zone again. THANKYOU!!! and even if this storm doesnt work out its not justification for basically canceling the threat 72hours + out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No but reasonable people dont jump off a cliff 3-4days before a storm. LOL Or get on the bus past day 4-5. Sure, it's fun, but you got to be ready to face dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 While I agree, I can understand after the winter we have had here. We need some euro love to bring morale up. It's only January 8th. This is only my second winter DC but is it even rare to be snowless at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Gfs ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not much has changed.. there are some bad signs if they continue going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's only January 8th. This is only my second winter DC but is it even rare to be snowless at this point? no but the problem is all the NEAR misses...or i guess thats near hits, this winter. that saying always bugged me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's only January 8th. This is only my second winter DC but is it even rare to be snowless at this point? Only my second as well, but I guess last year spoiled us. The snow to our north and south this year is a bit rough to see. It's comical to compare the mood here shortly after the 12z euro to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Only my second as well, but I guess last year spoiled us. The snow to our north and south this year is a bit rough to see. It's comical to compare the mood here shortly after the 12z euro to now. I'm still really excited. This is our first real threat at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Only my second as well, but I guess last year spoiled us. The snow to our north and south this year is a bit rough to see. It's comical to compare the mood here shortly after the 12z euro to now. That was nothing more than a sigh of relief. There wasn't and still isn't any real confidence. That's why the "mood" was so easily shattered. We're still stinging from a couple of misses. Fact is, nobody knows, not even computers. Maybe we get a nice surprise. Those are way more fun anyway. BTW, when we gonna start our next ten day tracking event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes, the ensemble mean looks decent, but don't cling to it, or today's 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No but reasonable people dont jump off a cliff 3-4days before a storm. LOL otoh, when the writing is on the wall all things considered (seasonal pattern being no slouch in the equation, horrendous model depictions) and people refuse to see and accept what is happening (i.e. the same thing that has happened all season resulting in no snow,) then those hanging on the bus can start to look just as unreasonable LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Atlantic City got 7" of snow today, and also happened to get 20" on 12/26. So their seasonal total is now 28", while they average 15". Ian is right about New Jersey. I think 1 to 3 yesterday also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not bad... 4 job us pretty good between the two lows (including the OP). The others are within the current popular ranges of amounts. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f72.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 no, we're people disgusted with the incredulous computers and busted forecasts are you suggesting we don't have good reason to feel that way after 12/26 and today? Exactly Whatever...you and I are probably the most positive people in this region so all this calling us negative is bs. Its frustration, plain and simple. Could it come back? Sure..I'll be here at 0z just like the rest of you...but man this is gettin real old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LC throws central va and DC some love.. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/wa-storm-track-jan-08-14-jpg-photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Exactly Whatever...you and I are probably the most positive people in this region so all this calling us negative is bs. Its frustration, plain and simple. Could it come back? Sure..I'll be here at 0z just like the rest of you...but man this is gettin real old Randy, if anyone in the DCA/BWI area on this Board thinks that this precip pattern on the GFS is random luck, you really haven't been following weather very long or understand how these computers work that precip pattern is exactly what has happened to us ever since the winter "pattern" locked in after the middle of DEC imho, forget the forecasters and forget all the other models and what they show, the GFS has thrown a red flag we would be either obtuse or crazy to ignore (and I don't even like the word "obtuse"!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 if the gfs (and/or the nam) is right with the secondary 500 energy i think we're pretty cooked.. hopefully we'd still get something measurable out of it but i wouldnt be certain. if i've 'hugged' a model it's the gfs as i feel it's at least been consistent if not steadfast and it's definitely better than the nogaps. i wish i knew how to deal with the euro given its supposed supremacy but it's only been "extra good" (IMBY at least) for two runs and wasnt as bullish prior so it could just be a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's only January 8th. This is only my second winter DC but is it even rare to be snowless at this point? But a lot of folks are looking at the longer-term setup and might not be so thrilled about our chances going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's only January 8th. This is only my second winter DC but is it even rare to be snowless at this point? But we aren't snowless. We've gotten a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 But we aren't snowless. We've gotten a bit. But does a couple traces really count? Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 But does a couple traces really count? Ugh... many of our winters are made up of events like the ones we've had plus a moderate event (or two) if we're lucky. we're not much below avg season to date... a modest event next week could push us to or above for the time being at least. a strong northern stream with minimal southern energy making it this far north/inland is going to favor drying east of the apps but we've been close enough to think we're not out of hope for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So what happens when the 0z NAM moves the blue line right about 30 miles and keep the same precip? Will this 3 hour morgue turn into a party? I'm also afraid tonight's oz Euro will cement it's status for the rest of the winter. It will either become a POS if it caves (again) or will be back on top if it holds (if it verifies). I might have to make a MT Dew and rum and stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LC throws central va and DC some love.. http://www.examiner....08-14-jpg-photo Good god, this page opened up like 5 pop-up ads. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good god, this page opened up like 5 pop-up ads. Thanks! Sorry, didn't know. Pop up blocker FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So what happens when the 0z NAM moves the blue line right about 30 miles and keep the same precip? Will this 3 hour morgue turn into a party? I'm also afraid tonight's oz Euro will cement it's status for the rest of the winter. It will either become a POS if it caves (again) or will be back on top if it holds (if it verifies). I might have to make a MT Dew and rum and stay up. hopefully sref is really positive then the nam is terrible then the gfs is better with the euro ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sorry, didn't know. Pop up blocker FTW. You're good. Just messing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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