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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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The cold has kept it manageable. 1.5" at BWI since July 1 is pretty.. pathetic.

It's especially pathetic when you compare it to numerous other places, both to our north and south.

I have seen 6 dustings so far this season, and I expect a 7th one this Tuesday :thumbsup::axe:

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So much for that accuweather map :whistle:

I know that Accuweather map was ridiculous - but you are making yourself look truly silly here.

If things shake out like the 18Z suite depicts, the Accuweather map is wayyyyy closer to nailing this storm than any other in that timeframe. Now granted, it's total luck and a ridiculous call on their part...but trying to use THIS info to at triumphant about Accuweather forecast is dubious.

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I know that Accuweather map was ridiculous - but you are making yourself look truly silly here.

If things shake out like the 18Z suite depicts, the Accuweather map is wayyyyy closer to nailing this storm than any other in that timeframe. Now granted, it's total luck and a ridiculous call on their part...but trying to use THIS info to at triumphant about Accuweather forecast is dubious.

I didn't realize that less than .25 for the event is considered heavy snow. My bad. I retract my previous statement.

Good luck to Accuweather and their "ridiculous map" thats "total luck and a ridiculous call on their part".

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I'm done. **** this ****. Our status as the sh*tzone is back strong this season. Frustration? lol..that doesn't even describe it. Sitting here for days on end tracking a 2" snow "storm". We can't even get 3 measly inches

Hey at least Richmond is not getting screwed again, I'm happy for them :thumbsup:

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I'm done. **** this ****. Our status as the sh*tzone is back strong this season. Frustration? lol..that doesn't even describe it. Sitting here for days on end tracking a 2" snow "storm". We can't even get 3 measly inches

I think we should start cloud seeding.... It worked for Beijing.

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I didn't realize that less than .25 for the event is considered heavy snow. My bad. I retract my previous statement.

Good luck to Accuweather and their "ridiculous map" thats "total luck and a ridiculous call on their part".

I'm not defending them - I know they are a total joke, and that map was laughable.

But that map is WAY closer to what the models now currently project than any other model or forecast at the time (despite whatever IMBY metric you are apparently applying)...so making fun of THEM of all people right now just seems bizarre.

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I don't think I have ever been more discouraged...I haven't lost ALL hope for this, but it is fading fast.

We can't even seem to pull off a 3-inch storm - it's not like we were being greedy and asking for feet of snow, just anything other than another gut-wrenching bust where the entire East Coast has fun but us. And yet...here we go again it seems.

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I'm not defending them - I know they are a total joke, and that map was laughable.

But that map is WAY closer to what the models now currently project than any other model or forecast at the time (despite whatever IMBY metric you are apparently applying)...so making fun of THEM of all people right now just seems bizarre.

Perhaps we are confusing the accuweather maps. Are you speaking Henry's from earlier? Because if so, yes that is much closer to what is currently being shown. I am however referring to the one they released a few days ago showing HEAVY SNOW for us.

Also, didn't the GFS just put out less than .25 from the PA border south? I'm pretty sure that's your backyard too.

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I'm as much a weenie as anyone, however I'm not as disturbed as some people about not getting snow bombed this season.

Especially since our locality had budget issues with snow removal after last year's big one. Last year's fun is enough snow for me for at least a decade :)

I remember being stuck inside for 2 weeks solid during the '93 storm when I was in College. We got 3 feet of snow in the Boone NC area (red dot on map below in northwestern NC) and the national guard had to helicopter supplies in to scores of people who were running out of food and water. I don't want to ever experience a Cat 5 snow ever again personally!

19930312-19930314-13.20.jpg

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I'm done. **** this ****. Our status as the sh*tzone is back strong this season. Frustration? lol..that doesn't even describe it. Sitting here for days on end tracking a 2" snow "storm". We can't even get 3 measly inches

Randy, maybe not DCA, but the following models at 0Z last night gave BWI between .1 and .15" qpf for today; with temps aloft, a guaranteed 1.5-2" and LWX had a call of 2.5":

NAM (including SREFs), Euro, GFS, RGEM, and GGEM

all it had to do was precipitate like every model said it would

instead, we got .01"....that's right, .01" here's the proof http://www.srh.noaa....story/KBWI.html

and you know, its not really the areawide pattern, S, SE, E, NE and N of us all have had AN snowfall

the computers are crap and, sorry to say, not one currently employed F/T met, private or public, has been any better than the computers

I said on Thursday if it didn't snow at least 5" in 10 days (by 7PM on 1/16) I was calling this season a bust and would not expect more than 5" for the entire season officially; after today, that looks likely barring a miracle

maybe the computers will come back, I don't know and I don't care because as today has proved, it doesn't matter what they say even when its 8 hours before the start of the supposed event, neither they nor forecasters can get it right when they show/predict snow for us

pathetic is really the only word that works

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I'm not defending them - I know they are a total joke, and that map was laughable.

But that map is WAY closer to what the models now currently project than any other model or forecast at the time (despite whatever IMBY metric you are apparently applying)...so making fun of THEM of all people right now just seems bizarre.

i dunno.. the only thing i'd give them much credit for on that map is the surface track of the slp and that might be in question still. this is partly one of those cases where people assume because you have the track you have the big snowstorm. i definitely recall some cases of a low passing in a fairly optimal spot and still not getting anything amazing.

they could end up getting the phl-bos or nyc-bos corridor right, but imo for the wrong reasons. not to mention the fact that they completely glanced over perhaps the biggest story (even though not as many people live there)... the snow in the South.

i agree it's not worth kicking anyone at this point since anything could still happen. but accuwx clearly panders (if not tries to froth up) those in the urban corridor of the northeast.

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Atlantic City got 7" of snow today, and also happened to get 20" on 12/26.

So their seasonal total is now 28", while they average 15".

Ian is right about New Jersey.

they avg 15 thru now or for the season?

at this pt i dont think it's out of the question that some places like that or even se va/parts of nc end up with their 09-10 this yr. i guess the pattern should change but so far it doesnt seem to want to.

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they avg 15 thru now or for the season?

at this pt i dont think it's out of the question that some places like that or even se va/parts of nc end up with their 09-10 this yr. i guess the pattern should change but so far it doesnt seem to want to.

They average 15" for the season, since being on the coast usually hurts them.

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People canceling this storm already is almost as funny as when they believed the day 10 gfs for this storm was a lock.

no, we're people disgusted with the incredulous computers and busted forecasts

are you suggesting we don't have good reason to feel that way after 12/26 and today?

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