PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just like tons of other storms that werent big here But, the Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 But, the Euro!!! it'll probably bail tonight. hopefully not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ive already thrown this run out The gfs will keep us snow. I'll stick with the euro for now, I don't think the nam can get much more wrapped up than that and even then we barely get to zero at 850 but suspect that above 850 there would be a warm layer so we can hope for a little low that is less wrapped. The trouble is, there is enough space for such a solution and it has lots of sref support. Thankfully, we have the euro and its ensembles to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPete Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm still a newb and trying to learn. How does this run look for South Central PA (York County)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm still a newb and trying to learn. How does this run look for South Central PA (York County)? Pretty good, I think. If GFS verifies terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it'll probably bail tonight. hopefully not... It will "probably" bail based on what exactly. I dont think anyone knows what the euro will "probably" do tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It will "probably" bail based on what exactly. I dont think anyone knows what the euro will "probably" do tonight. it was a "joke" though it's sort of an outlier in its own right even though its the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If it could bomb a little earlier, could be a big storm here... Funny, I thought the same thing. Not hours or hundreds of miles either. Just about 50-75 miles more south. I'm going to the weenie security blanket. Neither player is in the US right now, you can see that on sat. According to models they will be by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow's (not tonight) 0z run is the one I'm going with, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The gfs will keep us snow. I'll stick with the euro for now, I don't think the nam can get much more wrapped up than that and even then we barely get to zero at 850 but suspect that above 850 there would be a warm layer so we can hope for a little low that is less wrapped. The trouble is, there is enough space for such a solution and it has lots of sref support. Thankfully, we have the euro and its ensembles to hug. it's hard not to like the high resolution of the nam but at the same time it's hard not to distrust it at the end of its cycle. at least we're within its range now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it was a "joke" though it's sort of an outlier in its own right even though its the euro I think it is between NAM/SREFs and GFS in terms of evolution. Both side camps screw us in terms of precip, but get there differently. Euro is the best case middle solution, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT says for DC (and I quote): 3-6" or 5-8" That translate to 5"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT leesburg fringed as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM actually looks kinda similar to the January 2005 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM actually looks kinda similar to the January 2005 storm Could you or someone elaborate on that. And could someone post the link to the site where you can get those snowfall amount maps from prior storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Could you or someone elaborate on that. And could someone post the link to the site where you can get those snowfall amount maps from prior storms? There's a ton of info here, including snowfall maps, H5 maps, surface, radar images, etc. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ Then there are the NESIS maps http://www.ncdc.noaa...d-ice/nesis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Could you or someone elaborate on that. And could someone post the link to the site where you can get those snowfall amount maps from prior storms? I remember that storm here in the DC area. Forecast was calling for 6-10". I think it was a situation where we basically had an occluded front go through, precip ahead of it then essentially dry-slotted. Ended up with a burst of snow, some sleet, then it got pretty cold in the days afterward. And we only ended up with about 3" or so. Real disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There's a ton of info here, including snowfall maps, H5 maps, surface, radar images, etc. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ Then there are the NESIS maps http://www.ncdc.noaa...d-ice/nesis.php Thank You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 there was a lot more ridging in general with jan 05.. i doubt this gets to that level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is no semblance of a double barreled low on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 When euro shifts n I will panic...until then nothing has changed for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is no semblance of a double barreled low on here... If you read their disco they seem favor OTS vs amped. maybe that will change if the GFS comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Really thinking in the end this will be a one barrel LP from Hatteras on North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Out to 48 on the GFS theres some slight differences with hieghts in the lakes and MA (compared to 12Z), as well as s/w placement, that seems like it would be a bit more amped as an end result. Perhaps its starting to come around. Then again, it is the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Really thinking in the end this will be a one barrel LP from Hatteras on North. Looking at the GFS 18z at 48, 500, if that's all I had to go on, I'd think a storm straight through the OV. But since I've seen many results beyond that that don't do that, I guess I'm biased to think it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 low is well west at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can you determine the path of a storm by the curvature of, in this case, the 1020? Looking at the GFS 18z at 48, 500, if that's all I had to go on, I'd think a storm straight through the OV. But since I've seen many results beyond that that don't do that, I guess I'm biased to think it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 way west nyc looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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