psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dude, we aren't getting a big storm. Top end is five inches at most. Stop scaring the weenies. I am beginning to think that because of this new trend, but this did have potential for more. It still does honestly. After the last few screwjobs I understand the pessimism but honestly if the H5 low were to track 100 miles south of what guidance is currently showing this would be a 8-12" snowstorm for the area. Everyone has been limiting their expectations because of the OTS idea, but really its the further north track of the H5 versus the last few days that is starting to limit our ability to get a significant snow. Hopefully that trend is wrong and the Euro is correct and we have more then just a waste of a nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 euro ens mean didnt budge low is 4mb deeper on the mean at 84 What posts of his do? As soon as I see his avatar or posting style, I scroll right on by. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think if we get shafted this time I might pull up anchor and move to Buffalo, NY or something. That way I don't have to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am beginning to think that because of this new trend, but this did have potential for more. It still does honestly. After the last few screwjobs I understand the pessimism but honestly if the H5 low were to track 100 miles south of what guidance is currently showing this would be a 8-12" snowstorm for the area. Everyone has been limiting their expectations because of the OTS idea, but really its the further north track of the H5 versus the last few days that is starting to limit our ability to get a significant snow. Hopefully that trend is wrong and the Euro is correct and we have more then just a waste of a nuisance event. I can't help but love ya' man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z NAM likely not going to live up to 12Zrun, at least that's the way it looks through 60 hrs consistency in the short range models would be nice for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Don't look now, but 18Z NAM at 60hrs is looking much more 12Z GFS-ish. So... NAM-GFS off in one direction, Euro off in an other. We've seen this before this season - but not at such close range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 low is 4mb deeper on the mean at 84 yeah then it's the other way around next panel.. not sure it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Don't look now, but 18Z NAM at 60hrs is looking much more 12Z GFS-ish. So... NAM-GFS off in one direction, Euro off in an other. We've seen this before this season - but not at such close range! i think the euro is still too amplified... hopefully not much, and of course i'd take it verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z NAM likely not going to live up to 12Zrun, at least that's the way it looks through 60 hrs consistency in the short range models would be nice for once I dunno man...i got burned twice tried to get an early read from the NAM before it finished. the h5 levels looks slightly better than 12z actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From here on out all i am looking at is the track of the H7 low. If that tracks south of over us we will be ok. If the H7 low goes to our north....well we may get some very light snow before the dry slot but not much. NAM so far it looks close...moving right towards us, still taking a due east trajectory so it might be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not sure if this was posted earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z NAM likely not going to live up to 12Zrun, at least that's the way it looks through 60 hrs consistency in the short range models would be nice for once Fine, let it back off a bit to calm the warm dryslot talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Through 66 it looks the same to me at 850 and the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I dunno man...i got burned twice tried to get an early read from the NAM before it finished. the h5 levels looks slightly better than 12z actually looks slower and potentially north, not sure that's good tho perhaps it helps with backend snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i think the euro is still too amplified... hopefully not much, and of course i'd take it verbatim NAM needs to back down a little. It was close to getting too excited about the OV low at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Don't look now, but 18Z NAM at 60hrs is looking much more 12Z GFS-ish. So... NAM-GFS off in one direction, Euro off in an other. We've seen this before this season - but not at such close range! ?? NAM looks nothing like the GFS. Will look similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM needs to back down a little. It was close to getting too excited about the OV low at 12Z. at 66 it looks like it would still want to do something like that but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM needs to back down a little. It was close to getting too excited about the OV low at 12Z. the OV Low is better organized at 18z than 12Z and Low off the coast is a bit weaker not the trend we want, but its NAM in la-la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 this run is pretty sucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks slower and potentially north, not sure that's good tho perhaps it helps with backend snow Its got a strong 850 to the west and is a little warmer which may not bode will. We get our shot of precip then dry slot and drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Moderate precip on NAM is a little further west, but still warm for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its got a strong 850 to the west and is a little warmer which may not bode will. We get our shot of precip then dry slot and drizzle? I don't see a drizzle look but maybe. 850s look plenty cold DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its got a strong 850 to the west and is a little warmer which may not bode will. We get our shot of precip then dry slot and drizzle? it may come down to just the front end thump i guess. hopefully that's still 2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its got a strong 850 to the west and is a little warmer which may not bode will. We get our shot of precip then dry slot and drizzle? last run same time frame Low off coast was 1012, now its 1016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Fine, let it back off a bit to calm the warm dryslot talk. nope NAM is going the way the SREF did, its looking almost like its never going to "transfer" if you look at H7 and h85 there is no indication of any energy transfer the primary in the OH valley is just going to bowl ENE and then blow up once it gets to the coast well north of us. H7 is tracking right over PA. This was the worst possible solution I did not want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't see a drizzle look but maybe. 850s look plenty cold DC north. problem is the back end could end up north of us.. though this is the nam at the end of the run and im doing what i made fun of others for doing recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nope NAM is going the way the SREF did, its looking almost like its never going to "transfer" if you look at H7 and h85 there is no indication of any energy transfer the primary in the OH valley is just going to bowl ENE and then blow up once it gets to the coast well north of us. H7 is tracking right over PA. This was the worst possible solution I did not want to see. Time to bail on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Time to bail on this? Not entirely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not entirely... pretty classic screwed by the coastal look, but we should get something regardless .. just dont go into the forums north of here if it happens and enjoy what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mix for Wes at 78HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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