PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OTS. This storm really goes both to our NW and to our SE. State College PA will get 10"(Yes I was there for 5 years and I'm going against models.) " NYC will get 10" NrN Georgia may get 10". We will get 4-6" and the dryslot. 850MB and 700MB close off too far noprth for us, this is a classic too DC dryslot Miller B. Hopefully iut won't be as bad as 2005 This post makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 no that is not a joke. He made that statement a couple of months ago. I believe. Not donsutherland, but the whole "verifying" statement. It's not verifying, only BOS has gotten worthwhile snow and much of the region has been above average-normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And Iowa and Minnesota. Just about every location in the country is above average snowfall aside from the dca/bwi region, and even we are very close to average I believe so far. I don't think very many predicted a coast to coast above average winter is basically my point, and it has been a tremendously snowy winter coast to coast for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not donsutherland, but the whole "verifying" statement. It's not verifying, only BOS has gotten worthwhile snow and much of the region has been above average-normal. and how much of the winter has expired??? NOt very much. I,m just repeating what I read earlier .Think what you want.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Soon.. Starts in like 10 min so should be out in 20-30 or less. Still no Euro ensembles? (Fingers tapping on desk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still no Euro ensembles? (Fingers tapping on desk) Coastalwx said a track between ACK and the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 euro ens mean didnt budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Meh... burned by the SREFs being too far west last storm.. not concerned unless a mass trend that direction occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 track is basically the op.. main difference is its a little weaker from smoothing prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 euro ens mean didnt budge Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 what a shock Williamsburg, VA has more snow than me this winter...Tuesday or bust http://www.history.org/webcams/magazine.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Great news. the euro ens has been steady for some time now tho there were some slight shifts nw.. the op is seems stable too. with them basically on top of eachother it's hard to think they are way wrong i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 euro ens mean didnt budge Stuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the euro ens has been steady for some time now tho there were some slight shifts nw.. the op is seems stable too. with them basically on top of eachother it's hard to think they are way wrong i guess. The ensemble mean shifted NW a few times and the operational followed 12 hours later. Having them aligned now is a good thing. Be nice if GFS would do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if only I had a snow addition AND a gambling addiction http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KACY.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This post makes no sense. What posts of his do? As soon as I see his avatar or posting style, I scroll right on by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Great news. Agreed! Who Dat? Time to go watch some football!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Out at 48 on the NAM, jet digging a smidge more compared to 12Z? Also looks like the southern low is a hair NW of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just looked at the individual SREF members, its really ugly. 6 bring the inverted trough through completely dry, moderate snowfall for Oh and PA then blows up for New England...even too far north for NYC to get much 5 give us a very small snowfall 1" or so, then blow up in time for NYC 6 give us 2-3" only 4 still show a significant event 3"plus Things are definitely becoming weighted in the wrong direction, the culprit is the H5, just about all the SREF track it north of us now. Some by a LARGE margin, some track it over northern PA and imply it might even not do much for NYC. there are a few northern new england specials in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just looked at the individual SREF members, its really ugly. 6 bring the inverted trough through completely dry, moderate snowfall for Oh and PA then blows up for New England...even too far north for NYC to get much 5 give us a very small snowfall 1" or so, then blow up in time for NYC 6 give us 2-3" only 4 still show a significant event 3"plus Things are definitely becoming weighted in the wrong direction, the culprit is the H5, just about all the SREF track it north of us now. Some by a LARGE margin, some track it over northern PA and imply it might even not do much for NYC. there are a few northern new england specials in there. SREFs were way too far west Dec 26th. They need to earn back our trust, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well I guess your getting hit and so is above 40n . Midatlantic getting the shaft so far, I,m willing to bet euro changes its tune tonight also. Depends on your definition of Mid-Atlantic. Philly and Jersey are almost always considered Mid-Atlantic, and New York is often thrown into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just looked at the individual SREF members, its really ugly. 6 bring the inverted trough through completely dry, moderate snowfall for Oh and PA then blows up for New England...even too far north for NYC to get much 5 give us a very small snowfall 1" or so, then blow up in time for NYC 6 give us 2-3" only 4 still show a significant event 3"plus Things are definitely becoming weighted in the wrong direction, the culprit is the H5, just about all the SREF track it north of us now. Some by a LARGE margin, some track it over northern PA and imply it might even not do much for NYC. there are a few northern new england specials in there. The shift at 500 was the most troubling thing of the GFS. I'm not sure I care what the SREF says right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Depends on your definition of Mid-Atlantic. Philly and Jersey are almost always considered Mid-Atlantic, and New York is often thrown into it. I would tend to disagree. NJ and philly are northern mid atlantic. Md, va del are cent mid atlantic, but that is just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would tend to disagree. NJ and philly are northern mid atlantic. Md, va del are cent mid atlantic, but that is just me. By calling them "northern mid atlantic" that therefore qualifies them as mid-atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 SREFs were way too far west Dec 26th. They need to earn back our trust, I think. true, not buying them yet but thats what they show. Like i said earlier to Randy, its still not something I want to see even if it is the Nogaps or SREF, bottom line is when I have an idea of what the biggest threat is, I never want to see it start cropping up in model solutions as we get closer in. BTW... the UKMET is not good, it has a good SLP track but at 72 hours its bone dry, the inverted trough is right over us, but the energy out west has not begun to transfer yet. There is light snow over the OH valley and some very light precip OTS and nothing in between. Looks very NOGAPS like in that regard. Judging from the interaction with the H5 it will probably blow up but too late for our area because the "window" for us is as that inverted trough comes overhead, once that is north of us its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 true, not buying them yet but thats what they show. Like i said earlier to Randy, its still not something I want to see even if it is the Nogaps or SREF, bottom line is when I have an idea of what the biggest threat is, I never want to see it start cropping up in model solutions as we get closer in. BTW... the UKMET is not good, it has a good SLP track but at 72 hours its bone dry, the inverted trough is right over us, but the energy out west has not begun to transfer yet. There is light snow over the OH valley and some very light precip OTS and nothing in between. Looks very NOGAPS like in that regard. Judging from the interaction with the H5 it will probably blow up but too late for our area because the "window" for us is as that inverted trough comes overhead, once that is north of us its too late. Dude, we aren't getting a big storm. Top end is five inches at most. Stop scaring the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dude, we aren't getting a big storm. Top end is five inches at most. Stop scaring the weenies. I'm still here, and yes, this weenie is getting scared!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OTS. This storm really goes both to our NW and to our SE. State College PA will get 10"(Yes I was there for 5 years and I'm going against models.) " NYC will get 10" NrN Georgia may get 10". We will get 4-6" and the dryslot. 850MB and 700MB close off too far noprth for us, this is a classic too DC dryslot Miller B. Hopefully iut won't be as bad as 2005 That would be perfectly acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm still here, and yes, this weenie is getting scared!! If anyone tells you to panic over the SREFs at the end of their run or the NOGAPS, disregard unless the more important models and ensembles agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Glad to hear the Euro ensembles are lining up with the op. If both of those can't get the track in this thing three days out, then it's lost even more of its mojo and doesn't deserve the weight that it's ways been given. I would tend to disagree. NJ and philly are northern mid atlantic. Md, va del are cent mid atlantic, but that is just me. If you want to be picky, that's fine by me. But Delaware's gotten smoked this year, too! And where's the southern Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.