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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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  On 1/10/2011 at 4:44 PM, Sparky said:

This doesn't show the snow starting until 7pm tomorrow. Later than what I have been hearing.

That would help with accumulations. If it starts tomorrow afternoon between 12-2PM and it's not moderate to heavy it will have a hard time accumulating especially on roads etc until around 4-5PM.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 4:39 PM, Ian said:

historically yes.. in this case probably yes that is if you mean ending with less rather than more

Yes. I am saying the odds of us busting lower on snow totals is greater than us busting high on the current .25-.35 QPF.... unless I'm wrong on both accounts

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  On 1/10/2011 at 4:44 PM, Sparky said:

This doesn't show the snow starting until 7pm tomorrow. Later than what I have been hearing.

  On 1/10/2011 at 4:47 PM, MD Snow said:

That would help with accumulations. If it starts tomorrow afternoon between 12-2PM and it's not moderate to heavy it will have a hard time accumulating especially on roads etc until around 4-5PM.

Don't know what you've been hearing, but I've been telling people late afternoon/early evening Tuesday (so 5-7pm) for snow to start...

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  On 1/10/2011 at 4:57 PM, mitchnick said:

seems like a real consensus of .2 to .3 qpf from west to east across the DCA/BWI metro area

it all comes down to ratios whether we see more than a couple inches

Yep and i'm not sure where the 27-1 ratios are coming from in the output. I think they tend to be high on that product. It's funny, that in terms of clearing roads, .30" liquid equivalent is the same whether it has a 20-1 ratio or an 11-1. It weighs the same to the plow.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 5:02 PM, usedtobe said:

That seems to be what the models are doing. Most occurs after dark which is a plus.

are you doing the chat on WaPo? when is it? i thought noon but i see another is sched for noon.

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FWIW: DT's "Final Call" has DC-Baltimore with 2 to 5 inches. But the more noteworthy thing is he seems to be taking it hard on his Facebook Page that the storm he had been hyping for Richmond for the past 2 weeks around this date is not going to happen. He said it's going to be a "looonnnngggg time" before he ever goes out on a limb and suggests a big snowfall in Richmond.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 4:57 PM, mitchnick said:

seems like a real consensus of .2 to .3 qpf from west to east across the DCA/BWI metro area

it all comes down to ratios whether we see more than a couple inches

We'll get 1 to 3 inches as like it. We just need to accept that and enjoy it. When its snowing tomorrow for a few hours, we'll all be fine.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 5:18 PM, stormtracker said:

We'll get 1 to 3 inches as like it. We just need to accept that and enjoy it. When its snowing tomorrow for a few hours, we'll all be fine.

I plan on being on the high end of the lower end of the high low range of snow totals assuming that the higher ratios perform out here...if the lower ratios happen than I will probably be on the low end of the high low totals again assuming that the ratios are correct and the models have this thing progged right as far as high and low ends go

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  On 1/10/2011 at 5:21 PM, leesburg 04 said:

I plan on being on the high end of the lower end of the high low range of snow totals assuming that the higher ratios perform out here...if the lower ratios happen than I will probably be on the low end of the high low totals again assuming that the ratios are correct and the models have this thing progged right as far as high and low ends go

Are you high making this post?

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