Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:23 PM, UIWWildthing said: Forgive the weenie here, but if we go by this model, that about .50 QPF for Baltimore right? What's the ratios looking like for this storm? Definitely less than .50" QPF, and probably 10:1 ratios according to usedtobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dulles is an impressive -7 at 850 when .21 falls. Could be some good ratios there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:25 PM, Ji said: Dulles is an impressive -7 at 850 when .21 falls. Could be some good ratios there At what hr is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:24 PM, mitchnick said: NAM output through 42 hrs only BWI-.33 IAD-.25 DCA-.29 a little falls after that <.10 As I said before, that is not enough for a wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM is definitely more realistic than it was at 0z, but I'm still not sure if I should believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:22 PM, Ji said: Leesburg made the .25 cut...barely LOL at the typical Shanendoah Valley snow hole. Pathetic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:27 PM, FiveAlarmPhotography said: As I said before, that is not enough for a wsw. To be honest, thats close. Thats closing in on 4 inches of snow if you use 12:1 snow ratios at DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FINAL TOTAL DCA-.32 IAD-.26 BWI-.39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:27 PM, FiveAlarmPhotography said: As I said before, that is not enough for a wsw. No, you said that would support a general 2+. If the NAM were to verify - verbatim - a lot of people (esp. those N and NE of Baltimore) would getting very close to, if not exceeding WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 JYO .25 IAD .26 both airport have near -8 850 temps during the heavy snowfall DCA is -6.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:28 PM, yoda said: To be honest, thats close. Thats closing in on 4 inches of snow if you use 12:1 snow ratios at DCA/BWI Agreed, certainly close enough to issue a watch. A little jog in our favor and 5+ can easily verify. LWX can easily downgrade to an advisory once precip in on the doorstep and models are locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:30 PM, mitchnick said: FINAL TOTAL DCA-.32 IAD-.26 BWI-.39 take it and run and stop complaining about your winter. It was suppose to be a warm snowless winter. at least there has been things to track which most of us didnt even think possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 the great part is that NYC gets 1.13..we cant even get .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I want to sink NJ and Long Island into the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC city is in the North and its close to the ocean. Its not Atlanta people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:25 PM, Fozz said: Definitely less than .50" QPF, and probably 10:1 ratios according to usedtobe. That was yesterday, this nam has better vertical motion so I'll have to rethink ratios later today so they might be higher than that. I'll look later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah it's pretty dope how the Carolina, Deep South, Upper MA and all of NE are having awesome winters and DC/Central MD/NOVA just keep getting magically screwed. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:38 PM, TowsonWeather said: Yeah it's pretty dope how the Carolina, Deep South, Upper MA and all of NE are having awesome winters and DC/Central MD/NOVA just keep getting magically screwed. Sigh. Of course, it's bound to happen when we get nearly 4 feet of snow in the span of 5 days. 11 months ago seems like an eternity now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:38 PM, TowsonWeather said: Yeah it's pretty dope how the Carolina, Deep South, Upper MA and all of NE are having awesome winters and DC/Central MD/NOVA just keep getting magically screwed. Sigh. We will get them back in the next weak El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:37 PM, usedtobe said: That was yesterday, this nam has better vertical motion so I'll have to rethink ratios later today so they might be higher than that. I'll look later today. I would go with higher ratios (12-14:1) for the DC area since the air in the low-levels seems to be colder than expected so far with the Gulf/Coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:40 PM, Ellinwood said: I would go with higher ratios (12-14:1) for the DC area since the air in the low-levels seems to be colder than expected so far with the Gulf/Coastal low. That would put BWI just over the WSW threshold and put DCA pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Phase happens quicker but the storm looks 3 to 6 hours quicker up the coast. All and all looks like a small positive shift for our area. . 06Z NAM 12Z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:30 PM, mitchnick said: FINAL TOTAL DCA-.32 IAD-.26 BWI-.39 Assuming better than climo ratios (so, 12-13:1)...if LWX is riding the NAM, I'd expect Warnings for Balt City, Balt County, and Harford County and then Advisories for most of the rest of the area (except far west toward Winchester). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:40 PM, Ellinwood said: I would go with higher ratios (12-14:1) for the DC area since the air in the low-levels seems to be colder than expected so far with the Gulf/Coastal low. Do you think LWX is making a good call for a WSW? We live in a high impact area so I think they are on the right page with highlighting the chance in advance and can then easily downgrade. It's better to do this then issue an advisory and then have to upgrade to a warning if the slim odds pan out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:40 PM, Ellinwood said: I would go with higher ratios (12-14:1) for the DC area since the air in the low-levels seems to be colder than expected so far with the Gulf/Coastal low. I'll look at the vertical structure and at the snow growth region later unless another met wants to do it. 1st I gotta eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:31 PM, Ji said: take it and run and stop complaining about your winter. It was suppose to be a warm snowless winter. at least there has been things to track which most of us didnt even think possible hey JI, have a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Do you think LWX is making a good call for a WSW? We live in a high impact area so I think they are on the right page with highlighting the chance in advance and can then easily downgrade. It's better to do this then issue an advisory and then have to upgrade to a warning if the slim odds pan out for us. I don't like how far south and east it is, but this low's doing all sorts of crazy things and if the NAM verifies better with less mixing we could be looking at something similar to what they put out. However, I would still keep areas S of Annapolis out of the WSW for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:42 PM, WxUSAF said: Assuming better than climo ratios (so, 12-13:1)...if LWX is riding the NAM, I'd expect Warnings for Balt City, Balt County, and Harford County and then Advisories for most of the rest of the area (except far west toward Winchester). Agree. If the 12z NAM were correct and lets say we use 13:1 ratios for the three major airports, it would suggest around 3.5 inches at IAD, 4.2 inches at DCA, and 5.1 inches at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:34 PM, Ji said: the great part is that NYC gets 1.13..we cant even get .40 that will change on the NAM as it gets closer as in less qpf; it always happens on the NAM we're much closer in and hopefully, NAM won't pull the plug, but anything is possible Euro only gave BWI .25 or .26 the problem remains the ever presence of the snow hole to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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