snowfan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lwx must be seeing something that I don't, because I'm not sure why my area is under a WSW. I don't expect Baltimore will be seeing 5 or more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS ensemble members are almost all showing the NVa, DC, Balt snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:16 PM, Yorkpa25 said: Pretty much non event for York pa Yep, but we won't be alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:16 PM, Yorkpa25 said: Pretty much non event for York pa go to bed and i'm thinking 3-5, wake up and you're telling me zip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Radar down south looks strikingly similar to 12/26. Seasonal trend is an amazing thing. Can't wait to see the snowcover map in 2 days showing snow all over the freaking eastern 2/3 of the country except around the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agordon5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:28 PM, ovechkin said: Radar down south looks strikingly similar to 12/26. Seasonal trend is an amazing thing. Can't wait to see the snowcover map in 2 days showing snow all over the freaking eastern 2/3 of the country except around the beltway. Seasonal trend snowhole FTW! Amazingly the Winter Storm Watch for AA County mentions a potential for 5+ Inches but the forecast is only calling for 1-2". WSW: http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Forecast: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.93591198756165&lon=-76.56234741210937&site=lwx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:23 PM, sauss06 said: go to bed and i'm thinking 3-5, wake up and you're telling me zip? Think you have a better shot up your way. You have a shot of enhancement from the upper level low as it slides through in your general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:18 PM, showmethesnow said: The GFS ensemble members are almost all showing the NVa, DC, Balt snowhole. Laughable. This is the last time this year I'm spending hours online to track the placement of a @*!$ing snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:35 PM, lsukev5 said: Laughable. This is the last time this year I'm spending hours online to track the placement of a @*!$ing snowhole. I'd like to think thats true for me but I know I'll be back for the next one. Hey at least we should get SOMETHING from this storm. Even if it's 1-1.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You know LWX is covering their ass when Tony Pann from WBAL didn't even mention the winter storm watch in his morning wx forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:35 PM, lsukev5 said: Laughable. This is the last time this year I'm spending hours online to track the placement of a @*!$ing snowhole. Have you seen the 216 hr threat on the 06Z GFS? The threat that just about every run of the GFS has shown for the last several days. The time to start tracking is now. :whistle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:42 PM, showmethesnow said: Have you seen the 216 hr threat on the 06Z GFS? The threat that just about every run of the GFS has shown for the last several days. The time to start tracking is now. :whistle: I know I'm lying to all of you. I'll be back for more punishment with the rest of you. However, I'm going to start tracking that next threat when we're 2hrs and 16 min out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:39 PM, mapgirl18 said: You know LWX is covering their ass when Tony Pann from WBAL didn't even mention the winter storm watch in his morning wx forecast. I've got a feeling LWX is going to be ULTRA-conservative after their estimates for the 12/26 storm didn't pan out. I'm kind of happy I'm on the edge of the WSW. I'll take my 4" and love every minute of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:48 PM, lsukev5 said: I know I'm lying to all of you. I'll be back for more punishment with the rest of you. I'm going to start tracking that next threat when 8Days 2hrs and 15 min out Fixed it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:50 PM, showmethesnow said: Fixed it for you. Yeah, that's actually pretty accurate. Just no more setting the alarm clock to wake up for the 00Z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think LWX's WSW is fine. They are basically saying a storm is rapidly approaching but they still need another day of model runs before they can rule out or say for sure that some areas won't get up to 5 inches of snow. People have to remember what a WATCH is and means. This is not the same thing as them putting out the WARNING on 12/26 for 6 to 10 inches.. However, the LWX puts local media in a difficult position. The average member of the public will see the watch and assume a big storm is coming. Local Mets almost got to mention it, even if they don't believe it will snow 5 inches, cause who are they to ignore official warnings from the U.S. government about a possible emergency weather situation, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we are only about a 100-150 miles southwest adjustment of the coastal from actually having a very good outcome. Think the final track will be west of what it is showing but don't think we will get the southern adjustment that we need for the phasing to happen farther to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6Z GFS Bufkit for BWI http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kbwi.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit DCA: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kdca.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit IAD: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kiad.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:55 PM, showmethesnow said: Think we are only about a 100-150 miles southwest adjustment of the coastal from actually having a very good outcome. Think the final track will be west of what it is showing but don't think we will get the southern adjustment that we need for the phasing to happen farther to our south. BUT, when you consider the pattern so far this winter, you realize how unlikely that scenario is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:55 PM, showmethesnow said: Think we are only about a 100-150 miles southwest adjustment of the coastal from actually having a very good outcome. Think the final track will be west of what it is showing but don't think we will get the southern adjustment that we need for the phasing to happen farther to our south. Meant to add this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:56 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z GFS Bufkit for BWI http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kbwi.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit DCA: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kdca.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit IAD: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kiad.dat lol.......are we seriously getting 5.3"? With QPF of 0.23, I expect more like 1-3" for BWI. The ratios are way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:56 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z GFS Bufkit for BWI http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kbwi.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit DCA: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kdca.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit IAD: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kiad.dat Some good ratios there. Meets the criteria for WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:56 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z GFS Bufkit for BWI http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kbwi.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit DCA: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kdca.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit IAD: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kiad.dat Does that use 27:1 ratios for the end of the storm? Also, I understand why they issued WSW. Although it's not likely it's certainly possible that the storm redevelops faster than modeled bringing our area into the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:56 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z GFS Bufkit for BWI http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kbwi.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit DCA: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kdca.dat 6Z GFS Bufkit IAD: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kiad.dat 3.6 would be an upset victory at this point. Doubt it happens. The one nice thing I guess is that the cloud cover is already here and temps in the 20's. Probably won't get too much above freezing today, so the 11 flakes that fall tomorrow should not have too much trouble sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hate playing this game because I will come out sounding like a weenie. But doesn't the GFS seem dryer then it maybe should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 1:01 PM, showmethesnow said: Hate playing this game because I will come out sounding like a weenie. But doesn't the GFS seem dryer then it maybe should be. More likely, the NAM is too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 12:39 PM, mapgirl18 said: You know LWX is covering their ass when Tony Pann from WBAL didn't even mention the winter storm watch in his morning wx forecast. they call lwx for guidance, but they dont have to follow what they offer or suggest. It obvious wbal lead met t tasselmeyer has doubt about what is going to happen tomorrow. Doesn't make lwx lood very good. However, if the warning comes to fruition tasselmeyer wont look very smart. I did not hear the forecast, but if we get 5 in in cent md, whab wont look like they know what their doing. They missed the 10in first snowfall from last year and tasselmeyer apologized on air. He prides himself on being honest and accurrate. Guess we have another big test tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 1:03 PM, Fozz said: More likely, the NAM is too wet. Thought the same thing when I saw the NAM. Just wondering if a solution between the two is the likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 1:03 PM, Fozz said: More likely, the NAM is too wet. almost always is (was NOT on 12/26) interestingly, last year it was not and was always the first model to latch on to the wet solution and the other models followed frankly, I have no faith whatsoever in the models for us seem to be doing fine for everyone around us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 1:04 PM, mdsnowlover said: they call lwx for guidance, but they dont have to follow what they offer or suggest. It obvious wbal lead met t tasselmeyer has doubt about what is going to happen tomorrow. Doesn't make lwx lood very good. However, if the warning comes to fruition tasselmeyer wont look very smart. I did not hear the forecast, but if we get 5 in in cent md, whab wont look like they know what their doing. They missed the 10in first snowfall from last year and tasselmeyer apologized on air. He prides himself on being honest and accurrate. Guess we have another big test tomorrow. Cool story. Too bad I said TONY PANN and not Tom Tasselmeyer. We won't be getting 5 inches in Central MD. LWX is covering their ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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