mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:45 AM, Mad Cheese said: 78 some light stuff magically pops up. H5 is horrible, closed over Cleveland and moving NE.. This will surely be less than a 3hr event before the dryslot. with the upper levels as bad as they look, I just don;t see it happening after 72 hrs based on what the NAM was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This would pound NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:47 AM, mitchnick said: with the upper levels as bad as they look, I just don;t see it happening after 72 hrs based on what the NAM was showing In these setups, the models always dangle some fantasy snow over our area to drag us along until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:47 AM, PhineasC said: This would pound NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 78HR the 850 low is passing into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:47 AM, PhineasC said: This would pound NJ and NYC. this scenario is pretty warm for eastern NJ and even a close one for NYC JB even mentioned that under his fantasy storm, eastern NE, NJ could turn or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 we will never get as much qpf as the NAM is advertising....never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:48 AM, PhineasC said: In these setups, the models always dangle some fantasy snow over our area to drag us along until the end. Yup we are in the .25-.50 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:44 AM, PhineasC said: Still looks terrible to me. Don't dare say that in main 0z thread....you'll get warned and all kinds of angry emotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SNE will get a HECS out of this storm. Looks like we are back to normal, gents! See ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, PhineasC said: SNE will get a HECS out of this storm. Looks like we are back to normal, gents! See ya! We are still 3 days out give it another 24 hours to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, PhineasC said: SNE will get a HECS out of this storm. Looks like we are back to normal, gents! See ya! but that's the problem with this winter....its not normal in normal years, we get a little and they get a lot this year all around us gets at least a little, they get a lot and we get nothing regardless of what the models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, pojrzsho said: Don't dare say that in main 0z thread....you'll get warned and all kinds of angry emotion. What leads to warnings and angry emotions are posting things without scientific evidence. Phin has evidence because there are real reasons why it sucks and they are decently documented already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, pojrzsho said: Don't dare say that in main 0z thread....you'll get warned and all kinds of angry emotion. yep storm mode On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, PhineasC said: SNE will get a HECS out of this storm. Looks like we are back to normal, gents! See ya! in 3o minutes for the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maybe enough to keep the kids out of school on Tuesday. BTW, How F'd up is that for VA and DC again??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, ravensrule said: We are still 3 days out give it another 24 hours to bail. its not that the trend isn't our friend, its that its a freaking assassin and we ain't packing a piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wait for the EURO. The NAM made a late comeback. Almost had as much precip as the last run of the EURO. On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, PhineasC said: SNE will get a HECS out of this storm. Looks like we are back to normal, gents! See ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:52 AM, ravensrule said: We are still 3 days out give it another 24 hours to bail. Writing on the wall. In all my years of tracking storms, I can never remember a time the models backed off the OV jump BS once they started biting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:54 AM, weathervswife said: Maybe enough to keep the kids out of school on Tuesday. lolz. There's a reason why they are called clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:56 AM, Fozz said: lolz. There's a reason why they are called clown maps. at least eastern Jersey gets a lot of rain for once this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:55 AM, Eagle Man said: Wait for the EURO. The NAM made a late comeback. Almost had as much precip as the last run of the EURO. You've gotta look at the overall setup. A 500 low over Cleveland is NOT going to bring us significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:55 AM, PhineasC said: Writing on the wall. In all my years of tracking storms, I can never remember a time the models backed off the OV jump BS once they started biting on it. You have been around longer than me so you know better, but let's at least wait until the rest of the 0Z runs to fold up tent and admit we are getting screwed every time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:57 AM, mitchnick said: at least eastern Jersey gets a lot of rain for once this year I'd love to believe I'll get 4-5", but I don't buy this last minute improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:58 AM, Fozz said: I'd love to believe I'll get 4-5", but I don't buy this last minute improvement. If this run plays out exactly as shown and we get 4"-5" inches i will run around naked at the next conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 look west -- at the light qpf zone pointed at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:54 AM, weathervswife said: Maybe enough to keep the kids out of school on Tuesday. BTW, How F'd up is that for VA and DC again??? At this day in age it's a shame school superintendents still get their forecast from word on the street. Comon they could even hire Naso as a consultant for less than the cost of a textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:58 AM, Fozz said: I'd love to believe I'll get 4-5", but I don't buy this last minute improvement. me neither we know how being on the fringe of decent qpf turned out on 12/26 no reason to believe this will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:59 AM, ravensrule said: If this run plays out exactly as shown and we get 4"-5" inches i will run around naked at the next conference. [kush] lollerskates [/kush] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 2:54 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: yep storm mode But Midlo as of 66 hr...run was horrible...it's all I was sayin. 2 people were having a NAM is great love fest n I just happenned to check ou 0z runat halftime of game, and didnt think so, that's all. Okay I will stop now. I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 3:00 AM, mitchnick said: me neither we know how being on the fringe of decent qpf turned out on 12/26 no reason to believe this will be different Yes, and I'm pretty sure models also gave us decent QPF right before 12/30/2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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