psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:44 PM, PhineasC said: Time to bail on this? no, not with the Euro and GFS ensembles where they are, but some models showing this solution definitely lends support to what I have always thought was our worst risk of getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like rain for Fredericksburg S n E at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 score one for Buckeye with this run doesn't mean its right, just score one for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i'd rather have the 500 energy pass south of us like 95% of the time.. this is a good look if you like big nyc/sne snowstorms http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_078m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Congrats Buckeye???? Just Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT says for DC (and I quote): 3-6" or 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This really isn't anything like the GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:48 PM, J.Mike said: DT says for DC (and I quote): 3-6" or 5-8" Yeah his first guesses are out on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:46 PM, pojrzsho said: looks like rain for Fredericksburg S n E at 78 Then back to snow, and NJ gets thumped!!.....again!!!....that would put SJ at like 3 feet of snow in 2 and 1/2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:48 PM, PhineasC said: This really isn't anything like the GFS, though. Ok, fair enough. I did say at 60hrs... But in this one the coastal low stays close and wins out (just). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Fairly consistent with the 12Z setup... no need splitting hairs on the NAM at this range. Quite a dynamical storm compared to as advertized by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:42 PM, PhineasC said: I don't see a drizzle look but maybe. 850s look plenty cold DC north. For me it actually looks like. I though the dry slot would come. Even dc looks to mix at 78hrs. Guys like Leesbur probably would do OK providing they get precip. It's an ugly run for many us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:49 PM, eurojosh said: Ok, fair enough. I did say at 60hrs... But in this one the coastal low stays close and wins out (just). The GFS doesn't have nearly the sort of strong OV low. The screwing is the same, but the models are pretty different in terms of evolution. GFS bombs well off-shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it would be funny to see the inland low win out and then a miller b bomb for the northeast and by funny i mean the last event i ever track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like BWI does ok.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Perhaps we will just have a winter of coatings to dustings to maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At 84HR temps crash, but DC pretty much screwed... I do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 urg i hate nj http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:51 PM, Ian said: it would be funny to see the inland low win out and then a miller b bomb for the northeast and by funny i mean the last event i ever track Severe is the way to go. We clearly can't but a really good storm here. As I've said before...lets just go for a June 4 2008 redux and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It finally looks like the Piedmont of VA may be the place to be again. Dogs once again chasing cats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:52 PM, Ian said: urg i hate coastal nj http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084m.gif It's about time that Atlantic City gets rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:50 PM, usedtobe said: For me it actually looks like. I though the dry slot would come. Even dc looks to mix at 78hrs. Guys like Leesbur probably would do OK providing they get precip. It's an ugly run for many us. Yep. Bad things seem to happen just about every time we have 850 mb lows to our northwest, although this time we may just have enough cold air in place to do alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ive already thrown this run out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:52 PM, Ian said: urg i hate nj http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084m.gif no need to hate, the H85 maps scream sleet for PHL-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:47 PM, tornadojay said: yep! absolutely... everyone would get in on this.. DC. Philly.. NYC.. even back through most of eastern PA already has a healthy dosing of QPF to start off with.. and it is really just starting to bomb out at this point.... at least verbatim this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:53 PM, Ian said: ive already thrown this run out It might get ugly up to NYC. That low is mighty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If it could bomb a little earlier, could be a big storm here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:54 PM, Zir0b said: no need to hate, the H85 maps scream sleet for PHL-NYC yeah but i doubt the low runs right along the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:55 PM, PhineasC said: If it could bomb a little earlier, could be a big storm here... just like tons of other storms that werent big here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 8:52 PM, Fozz said: It's about time that Atlantic City gets rain. but it wont be Tue/Wed storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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