TowsonWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Through 42 the NAM is noticeably more amplified...this is gonna be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 much more energy on 300mb map at 42 hrs vs. 6Z run that 150mph streak over Nevada was not there at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:04 PM, stormtracker said: Or we just have what we have now and everybody's pretty much satisified. Yeah, but everyone likes to quote "climo" but then seem to think we can keep on going with Woodbridge, VA and Salisbury, MD getting slammed with powder every few days. We pretty much need them to mix or we will keep getting fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:22 PM, PhineasC said: Yeah, but everyone likes to quote "climo" but then seem to think we can keep on going with Woodbridge, VA and Salisbury, MD getting slammed with powder every few days. We pretty much need them to mix or we will keep getting fringed. although I'm with you on this, I don;t think our friends in Woodbridge, VA feel like they have been slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Heights are really popping in front of the northern energy. Stronger low in the OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:27 PM, showmethesnow said: Heights are really popping in front of the northern energy. Stronger low in the OV? wouldn't surprise me most recent run of SREF's had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 60 hrs, base of the western trough (as I will call it), is pretty far south, which is good for DCA/BWI the perfect location of the base would be along the KY/TN boarder and then staying along that line that continues with the VA/NC line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:28 PM, mitchnick said: wouldn't surprise me most recent run of SREF's had it Yep, SREFs had a closed h5 in the OV toward the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That northern energy is really diving deep. Think this is what we would need for a coastal low popping a little quicker for our area. Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:32 PM, stormtracker said: Yep, SREFs had a closed h5 in the OV toward the end of the run comparing 60 hrs this run to 6Z, thickness are little lower here in response to the apparent digging further south of the western vort we look better than 6Z imho, at least with respect to temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I actually am starting to like this look a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:36 PM, showmethesnow said: I actually am starting to like this look a lot. see my post above yours I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM looks great so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:35 PM, mitchnick said: comparing 60 hrs this run to 6Z, thickness are little lower here in response to the apparent digging further south of the western vort we look better than 6Z imho, at least with respect to temps Like Will said earlier in the thread, there is a sweet-spot here and there are factors at play that can keep us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh boy...some people are going to like the 12Z NAM....some really aren't I fear. Maybe the latter will only be in S. MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:41 PM, Ender said: Oh boy...some people are going to like the 12Z NAM....some really aren't I fear. Maybe the latter will only be in S. MD. best news I've heard out of you this winter! EDIT: you need to be near that changeover line for the best snows in these double barreled systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:42 PM, mitchnick said: best news I've heard out of you this winter! Um, go back to page 14/15 of this thread. Here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @78 1012 low tucked off southern obx....precip and 0c line creeping up through lower third of va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That vort is really potent this run... need it to stay in KY/TN and close off moving ENE through VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:43 PM, Ender said: Um, go back to page 14/15 of this thread. I can't read every page on this forum anyway, my statement was subjective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 People on the shore are going to be hating this. Wonder how far inland that brings in the mix line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:45 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: DIE OV....DIE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Anybody have the 84 Hr. Allens site has the wrong hour posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:43 PM, Ender said: Um, go back to page 14/15 of this thread. Here. "Me neither....but I like the "relative consistency" of the GFS and the ECE mean which has been slowly creeping west with each run. Actually the 12Z ECE mean just took more than a "creep" west. The "weakness" at H5 ahead of the n-stream s/w is creating a nice little path up the coast rather than all the fun to get shunted out NE or ENE from HAT. Obviously there's the risk that my "encouraging weakness" means we end-up with a low running up through the eastern piedmont, but I seriously doubt that'll happen. I really do think that we'll see a decently developed southern stream system early enough, and far enough west, to result in a nice snowfall. Actually I'm just plain confident now...I think Tue/Wed is going to work out well here. As long as it's acknowledged that "well" is a relative term, but I think we should see a good 2" - 4", perhaps even 3" - 5" if not 6" event. I think NJ, NYC, and SNE are really going to get clobbered as the true fun, and explosive deepening, is going to be a LI to the Cape event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On 1/8/2011 at 2:47 PM, showmethesnow said: Anybody have the 84 Hr. Allens site has the wrong hour posted. Yeah look above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The NAM is right before the GFS catches a clue--how often does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lordy, the next frame (if there was one) would be freaking great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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