Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:07 PM, PhineasC said: It is still a pretty big hit, just more believable now. looks more like the gfs i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:06 PM, Ian said: ggem looks like it backed off. yea same storm pretty much just less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:08 PM, Ian said: looks more like the gfs i think I am hitting refresh furiously to make sure I don't have old maps. I will wait for your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:09 PM, PhineasC said: I am hitting refresh furiously to make sure I don't have old maps. I will wait for your analysis. im just looking at the sacrus maps. it's not quite gfs but it moved that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So here is my question: I fee like in the past when we've had big storms, the ensemble mean is almost always a little less impressive and a little more progressive. What does it mean - if anything - that the exact opposite seems to be true in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:10 PM, Ian said: im just looking at the sacrus maps. it's not quite gfs but it moved that way. It had to move off the mega-bomb from last night. It is still more robust than the GFS, though. It is probably closest to the GFS ensemble mean at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:10 PM, Ian said: im just looking at the sacrus maps. it's not quite gfs but it moved that way. 500 map looks a little worse than the GFS to me but those things are hard to read sometimes. The similarities between the two is a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:13 PM, H2O said: 500 map looks a little worse than the GFS to me but those things are hard to read sometimes. The similarities between the two is a positive. I don't think this looks much like the GFS at all looking at the later panels. It is still a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:13 PM, PhineasC said: I don't think this looks much like the GFS at all looking at the later panels. It is still a bomb. the gfs bombs too just further east. i think there is too much amplification still on the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is a very realistic potential that the higher resolution of the GFS op is simulating things differently and is continually flatter. Hard to say, but resolution could very well be why it is constantly weaker than the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:09 PM, PhineasC said: I am hitting refresh furiously to make sure I don't have old maps. I will wait for your analysis. Its not like the GFS in terms of precip. Much more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM still looks pretty darn good, like Midlo said, similar storm with just less precip. 108hr and then 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 All we have to do is be more realistic in expectations and I think this could work out great. 3 to 6 inches is the goal for me at this point. Not every storm is gonna be the second coming of snowmaggedon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:18 PM, stormtracker said: Its not like the GFS in terms of precip. Much more robust. Yeah, that's what I am seeing. It looks like the GFS ensemble mean, which is actually a really good thing since it give me more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:20 PM, stormtracker said: All we have to do is be more realistic in expectations and I think this could work out great. 3 to 6 inches is the goal for me at this point. Not every storm is gonna be the second coming of snowmaggedon. I would love a solid WSW-criteria storm that brings out the plows and snowblowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:19 PM, WxUSAF said: GGEM still looks pretty darn good, like Midlo said, similar storm with just less precip. 108hr and then 120hr. I'm with you. Looks better than the GFS but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:17 PM, baroclinic_instability said: It is a very realistic potential that the higher resolution of the GFS op is simulating things differently and is continually flatter. Hard to say, but resolution could very well be why it is constantly weaker than the ensemble members. Definitely true. I do tend to pay attention when the ensembles are consistently NW and stronger than the operational run after run. The SREFs burned me last time, though, so I am gun-shy on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:21 PM, PhineasC said: I would love a solid WSW-criteria storm that brings out the plows and snowblowers. That would help offset the horrible winter that we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:21 PM, PhineasC said: I would love a solid WSW-criteria storm that brings out the plows and snowblowers. nothing better than the smell of exhaust from a gas driven snowblower in the morning sorta reminds me of the smell of napalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:20 PM, PhineasC said: Yeah, that's what I am seeing. It looks like the GFS ensemble mean, which is actually a really good thing since it give me more confidence. precip isnt that important still at this range. 500 is flatter than 0z and should flatten more imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:24 PM, Ian said: precip isnt that important still at this range. 500 is flatter than 0z and should flatten more imo. It sounds like you are going all-in on the 12Z GFS mega-wimp storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:26 PM, PhineasC said: It sounds like you are going all-in on the 12Z GFS mega-wimp storm. not necessarily but i think it might be close -- no waffling here (for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I would love a scenario where we get two model camps, and one gives us 6-10 and the other 3-6. Seems like these days we get one model with a big storm and the rest look like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 It sounds like we took a step back a bit today at 12z. Tomorrow at this time will be tellinb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:31 PM, Ji said: It sounds like we took a step back a bit today at 12z. Tomorrow at this time will be tellinb yeah, back to reality GEM was on steroids ande alone with that bomb forecast its giving us .5" qpf, which is reasonably consistent with GFS ensembles chill dude, it could still go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:31 PM, Ji said: It sounds like we took a step back a bit today at 12z. Tomorrow at this time will be tellinb anytime that I complain about .5 of QPF 4 days out...shoot me Had last winter not happened, we would be clamoring for a radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:24 PM, Ian said: precip isnt that important still at this range. 500 is flatter than 0z and should flatten more imo. And I was wrong about the GGEM 500. On the color maps it actually looks way better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'll take .5" QPF in a heartbeat......in fact I'll be happy with 2-4 given what we've had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:39 PM, H2O said: And I was wrong about the GGEM 500. On the color maps it actually looks way better than the GFS. it does look better than the gfs yes but it's not going to shift entirely in one run most likely. there could still be middle ground somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 5:31 PM, Ji said: It sounds like we took a step back a bit today at 12z. Tomorrow at this time will be tellinb Not really, unless you expected the 00Z GGEM MECS to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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